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Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Mar '19 (NQH19)

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Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Futures Market News and Commentary

U.S. Stock Indexes Surge after the U.S. and China Reach the First Phase of a Trade Deal

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) on Friday closed up +32.14 (+1.09%), the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) closed up +319.92 (+1.21%), and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) closed up +103.51 (+1.34%). U.S. stock indexes rallied sharply Friday with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials at 1-1/2 week highs and the Nasdaq 100 Index at a 3-week high on growing conviction the U.S. and China will negotiate a final trade deal after President Trump said both sides agreed to the outlines of a phase-one trade deal that could be signed as early as next month. U.S. stock index futures surged Friday after President Trump said the U.S. and China reached "phase one" of a trade deal where China would significantly step up purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities, agree to certain intellectual property measures and concessions related to financial services and currency. In exchange, the U.S. will delay the Oct 15 tariff increase on $250 billion of Chinese imports to 30% from 25%. A +2% jump in the Euro Stoxx 50 Friday to a 1-1/2 week high also provided support to U.S. stock indexes on optimism about a Brexit deal. No-deal Brexit concerns receded after European Council President Tusk said Friday he received "promising signals" that a Brexit deal is possible. UK Prime Minister Johnson met with Irish premier Varadkar Thursday and issued a joint statement saying that "they agreed that they could see a pathway to a possible deal." Friday's U.S. economic data was positive for stocks after the University of Michigan's Oct U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose +2.8 to 96.0, stronger than expectations of -1.2 to 92.0.. Comments Friday from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari were bullish for stocks when he said he's concerned that the labor market is showing signs of softening and he would probably be in favor if the Fed decided to cut interest rates at the Oct 29-30 FOMC meeting. The VIX S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) tumbled to a 2-1/2 week low Friday at 15.11% and finished the day down -1.99 to 15.58%. The VIX last Wednesday rose to a 1-1/2 month high of 21.46% but continues to consolidate between the late-July 5-3/4 month low of 11.69% and the early-Aug 9-month high of 24.81%. Big Picture U.S. Stock Market Factors: Bullish factors for the U.S. stock market include (1) low U.S. interest rates, (2) expectations for an SPX earnings growth of +3% in 2019, although that is sharply lower than 2018's stellar +23% pace, and (3) general strength in earnings and buybacks from the 2018 tax cut. Bearish factors include (1) the forecast by FOMC members in the September Fed-dot plot for no more rate cuts in 2019-2020 and then a +25 bp rate hike in 2021 and a second rate hike in 2022, (2) US/Chinese trade and tech tensions, and (3) slower U.S. and global economic growth.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
E-Mini Nasdaq 100
Contract Size
$20 times Index
Tick Size
0.25 points ($5.00 per contact)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 3:15p.m.) CST
Exchange
CME
Point Value
$20
Margin/Maintenance
$8,360/7,600
First Notice Date
03/15/19
Expiration Date
03/15/19 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Mar '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 8, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
101,923 (+5,278)
112,645 (-2,366)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
66,677 (-8,374)
48,618 (+339)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
38,557 (+5,187)
39,878 (-5,871)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
76,449 (-8,618)
47,973 (+2,823)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
43,561 (+238)
51,492 (-817)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
3,157 (-328)
15,044 (+1,413)
Get Realtime - Quotes and Charts for Futures Traders. Learn More >>

Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
6,939.00 +4.78%
on 03/08/19
7,295.50 -0.34%
on 03/13/19
+206.60 (+2.92%)
since 02/15/19
3-Month
5,820.50 +24.91%
on 12/26/18
7,295.50 -0.34%
on 03/13/19
+647.85 (+9.78%)
since 12/14/18
52-Week
5,820.50 +24.91%
on 12/26/18
7,765.00 -6.37%
on 10/01/18
+112.35 (+1.57%)
since 03/15/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Buy with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Good. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 7,312.12
1st Resistance Point 7,291.23
Last Price 7,270.35s
1st Support Level 7,246.23
2nd Support Level 7,222.12

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52-Week High 7,765.00
Last Price 7,270.35s
Fibonacci 61.8% 7,022.20
Fibonacci 50% 6,792.75
Fibonacci 38.2% 6,563.30
52-Week Low 5,820.50

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