Stocks Move Higher as Oil Prices Plunge

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.39%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.49%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.40%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.58%.

Stocks are trading higher today on the -11% plunge in oil prices, which is positive for the US economy and dovish for Fed policy.  Oil prices are sharply lower on President Trump’s insistence that the Iran war will be over very soon, and as plans are being laid for a coordinated G-7 release of oil stockpiles. 

Stocks are also seeing support from today’s stronger-than-expected US Feb existing home sales report of +1.7% m/m to 4.09 million, versus expectations of a decline to 3.88 million.

However, bearish factors for stocks include today’s +1.0 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield and new Iranian attacks in the Persian Gulf. Also, the Pentagon said the US military is today conducting its most intensive day of bombing yet.

An Iranian drone attack today caused the biggest refinery in the UAE at the Ruwais Industrial Complex to halt operations due to a fire in the complex. Also, Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency reported an explosion today involving a tanker near Abu Dhabi, but no further details were available.

Despite those disruptions, April WTI crude oil futures prices are down -11% today, erasing part of the sharp rally seen in the past 1-1/2 weeks.  Oil prices on Monday spiked to a high of $119.48 after Israel over the weekend bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots.  However, WTI oil prices have since fallen to the $84-per-barrel area after President Trump said on Monday that the Iran war is “pretty much” over, and after G-7 finance ministers said on Monday that the G-7 nations stand ready to release oil stockpiles if needed.  At a press conference Monday evening, President Trump was asked when the war would end, and he answered, “I think soon, very soon.” 

G-7 energy ministers met earlier today at the International Energy Agency in Paris, where they discussed a coordinated release of G-7 oil stockpiles.

Iran has shown no signs of backing down, despite the withering air campaign launched by Israel and the US.  Iran's Assembly of Experts over the weekend appointed hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new supreme leader, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  Iran's new leader has close ties to Iran's powerful and entrenched Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  President Trump said he is "not happy" with the choice of the new leader.

Q4 earnings season is nearly over, with more than 95% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 492 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 0% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are higher today, supported by Monday afternoon’s recovery in US stocks.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +3.02%, following Monday’s -0.61% loss.  China's Shanghai Composite today closed up +0.65%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +2.88%, recovering part of Monday’s sharp -5.2% loss.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up +8.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.0 bp at 4.105%.  The T-note yield is trading higher today amid ongoing inflation concerns, with the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate up +0.7 bp to 2.337%.  Also, the T-note yield saw upward pressure from the stronger-than-expected US existing home sales report.

European government bond yields are lower.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.1 bp at 2.838%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -9.4 bp at 4.553%. 

Swaps are discounting a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are trading mostly higher, led by gains of more than +1% in Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), and Tesla (TSLA). 

Chip stocks are trading higher almost across the board, supporting the Nasdaq 100 index.  Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +6%.  Intel (INTC)is up more than +4%.  Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +3%.

Oil stocks are trading mostly lower due to today’s sharp decline in oil prices.  Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is down about -3%.  ConocoPhillips (COP) is down about -0.8%. 

Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE) is up +0.4% after reporting slightly weaker-than-expected revenue, although other results beat expectations.

AT&T (T) is up +0.7% after saying it will spend more than $250 billion over the next five years to expand its telecom network infrastructure in the US, more than doubling its recent capital investment.

Casey’s General Stores (CASY) is up +1.8% despite reporting disappointing revenue for fiscal Q3.

Strive Inc (ASST) is up more than +5%, and Strategy Inc (MSTR) is up more than +1%, after B. Riley Securities initiated coverage of the Bitcoin treasury companies with buy ratings.

Earnings Reports(3/10/2026)

Oracle Corp (ORCL).