S&P Futures Waver as Middle East Conflict Uncertainty Persists, U.S. Inflation Data in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending down -0.09% this morning, swinging between gains and losses as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict remains high, while investors await key U.S. inflation data.

The Middle East conflict shows no signs of easing. The price of WTI crude rose more than +4% after the UK Navy said three vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf on Wednesday, underscoring ongoing disruption to shipping. Also, U.S. Central Command said in a statement late Tuesday that American forces destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying ships near the Strait of Hormuz. This follows President Trump’s warning to Iran that placing mines in the strait would trigger military consequences “at a level never seen before.”

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency is said to be considering the largest emergency oil reserve release in its history, with a decision potentially coming later on Wednesday.

Also weighing on sentiment on Wednesday, the Financial Times reported that JPMorgan Chase marked down the value of some loans and tightened lending as concerns over credit quality intensified.

On the positive side, Oracle (ORCL) jumped over +10% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat FQ3 results and raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance. 

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. Centene (CNC) plunged over -15% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after CEO Sarah London said enrollment is falling in the company’s Affordable Care Act business. Also, software stocks sank, with Thomson Reuters (TRI) sliding over -7% and Datadog (DDOG) falling more than -4%. In addition, energy stocks fell amid a slump in oil prices, with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) dropping over -3% and APA Corp. (APA) falling more than -2%. On the bullish side, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) surged over +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the drugmaker said povetacicept, a treatment for a rare kidney disease, met its primary endpoint in a late-stage trial.

“While traders welcomed the sudden drop in oil prices, the geopolitical backdrop remains far from stable, leaving markets vulnerable to further volatility,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly rose +1.7% m/m to 4.09 million in February, stronger than expectations of 3.89 million.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. consumer inflation report for February, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The report covers the period before the U.S. and Israel launched a bombing campaign against Iran, which triggered a spike in oil prices and, in turn, fueled inflation concerns. Any indication that inflation was already elevated before the Middle East conflict would further heighten those concerns. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. February CPI will come in at +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.2% m/m and +2.4% y/y. Also, the U.S. core CPI is expected to be +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y in February, compared to +0.3% m/m and +2.5% y/y in January.

“This is a key print, as the recent oil shock has pushed back market expectations for the next Fed rate cut,” according to Deutsche Bank analysts. “While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at next week’s meeting, today’s data will help shape expectations for subsequent decisions.”

The CPI report, along with January’s core personal consumption expenditures price index due later this week, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the final major data releases before policymakers meet on March 17-18.

The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will also be released today. Economists expect this figure to be 2.8 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of 3.5 million barrels.

In addition, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is set to participate in a discussion on “Supervision and Regulation” at the American Bankers Association Washington Summit later today.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.4% probability of no rate change and a 0.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting next week.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.17%, up +0.22%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.89% this morning as oil prices climbed again following attacks on vessels in the Middle East. Industrial and financial stocks slumped on Wednesday. Defense stocks also slid, dragged lower by a more than -5% drop in Rheinmetall AG (RHM.D.DX) after it reported weaker-than-expected 2025 results. Final data from the federal statistics office confirmed on Wednesday that the German annual inflation rate eased to 1.9% in February. Meanwhile, bond yields jumped across the region after European Central Bank Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said the Iran war and its impact on inflation could prompt officials to raise interest rates earlier than anticipated. Separately, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the central bank will assess various growth and inflation scenarios next week and that policymakers should remain level-headed amid exceptional uncertainty. In other news, Barclays warned on Wednesday that the STOXX 600 index could drop to around 550 points if oil prices remain near $100 a barrel. Investors are now shifting their focus to key U.S. inflation data and remarks from ECB board member Isabel Schnabel. In other corporate news, Inditex (0QWI.LN) rose over +2% after the Zara owner posted solid sales growth in the early weeks of its current fiscal year.

Germany’s CPI data was released today.

The German February CPI rose +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.25%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.43%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, participating in a choppy relief rally across the region despite lingering uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. New energy stocks led the gains on Wednesday as investors wagered that geopolitical tensions pushing energy prices higher would benefit the sector. Financial stocks also advanced, drawing support from defensive positioning amid ongoing global volatility. In addition, technology stocks climbed. The Chinese market has been holding up unexpectedly well since the Middle East conflict began. The nation’s equities have declined less than global counterparts, the yuan has remained stable against the U.S. dollar, and government bond yields have shown little movement. Capital Economics economist Julian Evans-Pritchard said the conflict is unlikely to materially affect China’s growth, as the economy is less reliant on oil and gas than many other major economies. In other news, Reuters reported on Wednesday that Chinese government agencies and state-owned enterprises have recently warned staff against installing the AI agent OpenClaw on office devices due to security concerns. In corporate news, NIO Inc. jumped more than +14% in Hong Kong after the EV maker posted its first-ever quarterly profit and issued upbeat Q1 guidance.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, marking a second consecutive session of gains as investors continued to scoop up beaten-down stocks. Oil held below $90 a barrel during the Tokyo session after the Wall Street Journal reported that the International Energy Agency had proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history to curb crude prices, boosting market confidence. Utility and mining stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Chip stocks also advanced, with sentiment buoyed by Oracle’s upbeat results and guidance. However, the benchmark index retreated from its intraday highs as bank stocks turned lower after the Financial Times reported that JPMorgan Chase told private credit lenders it had marked down the value of certain loans. Software stocks also sank, tracking overnight losses in their U.S. counterparts. Meanwhile, Japan’s five-year government bond auction on Wednesday attracted strong demand as investors weighed the Bank of Japan’s rate-hike trajectory against ongoing uncertainties tied to the Middle East conflict. On the economic front, data showed that Japan’s annual wholesale inflation eased for a third consecutive month in February as government fuel subsidies helped offset rising commodity costs. However, economists cautioned that the surge in oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict is likely to rekindle price pressures. In corporate news, Nintendo climbed over +8% as the successful launch of its new Pokémon title for the flagship Switch 2 console boosted sentiment. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +31.92% to 42.94.

The Japanese February PPI fell -0.1% m/m and rose +2.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.2% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Oracle (ORCL) jumped over +10% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat FQ3 results and raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance.

UniFirst (UNF) surged over +13% in pre-market trading after Cintas agreed to acquire the company for $310 per share in cash and stock.

Nike (NKE) rose more than +2% in pre-market trading after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $73.

AeroVironment (AVAV) plunged over -9% in pre-market trading after the drone maker reported weaker-than-expected FQ3 results and cut its full-year guidance.

Diamondback Energy (FANG) fell more than -2% in pre-market trading after announcing a secondary offering of 11 million shares by a selling stockholder.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - March 11th

The Campbell’s Company (CPB), UiPath (PATH), The Descartes Systems Group (DSGX), Netskope (NTSK), BBB Foods (TBBB), Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN), Sprinklr (CXM), Navigator Holdings (NVGS), Wealthfront (WLTH), Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM), Oil-Dri Corporation of America (ODC), Target Hospitality (TH), OppFi (OPFI), Serve Robotics (SERV), Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC), HighPeak Energy (HPK), Sonida Senior Living (SNDA), Viant Technology (DSP), Petco Health and Wellness Company (WOOF), Frequency Electronics (FEIM), Flotek Industries (FTK), Stitch Fix (SFIX), North American Construction Group (NOA), Bumble (BMBL), Acacia Research (ACTG), Artesian Resources (ARTNA), Exodus Movement (EXOD), TSS, Inc. (TSSI), Ovid Therapeutics (OVID), Tredegar (TG), Stellus Capital Investment (SCM), TechTarget (TTGT), Fossil Group (FOSL), Montauk Renewables (MNTK), CuriosityStream (CURI), RCM Technologies (RCMT), Kewaunee Scientific (KEQU), Codexis (CDXS), Digimarc (DMRC).