Stocks Little Changed Despite a Fed-Friendly US Core CPI Report

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down -0.02%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.36%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.09%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.03%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.10%.

Stock indexes recovered from overnight losses and turned mixed today, with the Nasdaq 100 posting a 2.25-month high.  Easing inflation concerns are knocking bond yields lower and pushing stocks higher today after US December core consumer prices rose less than expected.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -2 bp to 4.16%. 

Also, energy-producing stocks are climbing today, with WTI crude oil up more than 1% at a 1.75-month high.  Geopolitical risks are pushing crude oil higher as the US ratcheted up pressure on Iran after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from countries “doing business” with Iran.  Also, drone attacks on oil tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea Coast have reduced crude loadings at the terminal by almost half to around 900,000 bpd.

Credit card companies are falling for a second day today to weigh on the Dow Jones Industrials after President Trump said credit-card lenders would be “in violation of the law” if they don’t cap interest rates at 10% for one year. 

Stocks have some negative carryover from Monday on concerns about Fed independence, after Fed Chair Powell said the Justice Department was threatening a criminal indictment tied to his June testimony on Fed headquarters renovations, in retaliation for the Fed not going along with President Trump’s calls for lower interest rates. 

US Dec CPI was unchanged from Nov at +2.7% y/y, right on expectations.  Dec core CPI was also unchanged from Nov at +2.6% y/y, a smaller increase than expectations of +2.7% y/y.

The market’s focus this week will be on economic news and any fresh news on the Federal Reserve.  Later today, Oct new home sales are expected to fall -10.6% m/m to 715,000.   On Wednesday, Nov PPI final demand is expected to increase +2.7% y/y, and Nov core PPI is also expected to climb by +2.7% y/y. Also, Nov retail sales are expected to have increased +0.5% m/m and +0.4% m/m ex-autos.  In addition, Dec existing home sales are expected to climb +2.2% m/m to 4.22 million.  Finally, the Supreme Court on Wednesday may rule on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs.  On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +7,000 to 215,000.  Also, the Jan Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions is expected to climb by +4.9 to 1.0.  On Friday, Dec manufacturing production is expected to fall -0.1% m/m.  Also, the Jan NAHB housing market index is expected to increase by +1 to 40.

Q4 earnings season is set to begin this week as bank earnings start to roll in today.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting the odds at 5% for a -25 bp rate cut at the FOMC’s next meeting on January 27-28.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a new record high and is up +0.41%.  China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 10.5-year high and closed down -0.64%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a new all-time high and closed up sharply by +3.10%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are up by +4 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.0 bp to 4.165%.  Mar T-notes recovered from overnight losses and turned higher today after the US Dec core CPI rose less than expected, easing inflation concerns. T-notes initially moved lower today on carryover pressure from Monday on concerns over Fed independence, when Fed Chair Powell said the Justice Department was threatening a criminal indictment tied to his June testimony on Fed headquarters renovations in retaliation for the Fed not going along with President Trump’s calls for lower interest rates.  Also, supply pressures are pressuring T-note prices ahead of today’s Treasury auction of $22 billion in 30-year T-bonds. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.3 bp to 2.854%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up by +1.4 bp to 4.387%.

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.

US Stock Movers

Mining stocks are climbing today as the price of silver rallied to a new all-time high.  Hecla Mining (HL) is up more than +3%, and Barrick Mining (B) is up more than  +2%.  Also, Coeur Mining (CDE), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), and Newmont Mining (NEM) are up more than +1%. 

Credit card companies are falling for a second day today after President Trump said credit-card lenders would be “in violation of the law” if they don’t cap interest rates at 10% for one year.  Visa (V) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials.  Also, Mastercard (MA) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are down more than -2%.

Option Care Health (OPCH) is up more than +9% after TD Cowen said the company’s forecast for 2026 EBITDA growth of +2% to +7% are better than we expected.

Revvity (RVTY) is up more than +9% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting preliminary Q4 revenue of $772 million, stronger than the consensus of $756.9 million. 

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded the stock to overweight from sector weight with a price target of $270.

Cardinal Health (CAH) is up more than +3% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to as least $10.00 from a previous forecast of $9.65-$9.85, stronger than the consensus of $9.83. 

L3Haris Technologies (LHX) is up more than +3% as the US Department of Defense is set to invest in the company’s Missile Solutions business via a $1 billion convertible preferred security. 

MP Materials (MP) is up more than +3% after William Blair initiated coverage on the stock with an outperform recommendation. 

Albemarle Corp (ALB) is up more than +2% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $185. 

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is up more than +2% after Bernstein raised its price target on the stock to $412 from $362. 

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) is down more than -27% after the company said it received an FDA request to clarify the clinical benefit of its therapy for a rare kidney disease, a move analysts said could delay the agency's approval. 

Delta Air Lines (DAL) is down more than -2% after it forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $6.50 to $7.50, the midpoint below the consensus of $7.20. 

CRH Plc (CRH) is down more than -2% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight. 

Adobe (ADBE) is down more than -2% after Oppenheimer downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform.

Installed Building Products (IBP) is down more than -1% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $245.

Synopsys (SNPS) is down more than -1% after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight with a price target of $520. 

Alcoa (AA) is down more than 1% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight. 

Earnings Reports(1/13/2026)

Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), Concentrix Corp (CNXC), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM).