Stocks Recover as Chipmakers Rebound

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.20%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.23%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.16%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.19%.

Stock indexes recovered from early losses today and are moving higher. A rebound in chip makers is lifting the broader market, led by a +10% jump in Applied Materials after reporting stronger-than-expected Q1 adjusted EPS.  Also, falling bond yields are supporting stocks today after US January consumer prices rose less than expected, which may prompt the Fed to keep cutting interest rates.  The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2.25-month low of 4.05% on the news.

Stocks initially moved lower today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting 1-week lows.  Worries over AI weighed on stocks and dampened market sentiment.  Concerns have surfaced that the latest tools released by Google, Anthropic, and other AI startups are already good enough to disrupt many sectors of the economy, including finance, logistics, software, and trucking.

US Jan CPI rose +2.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.5% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 7 months.  Jan core CPI rose +2.5% y/y, right on expectations and the smallest pace of increase in 4.75 years.

Q4 earnings season is in full swing, as more than two-thirds of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 76% of the 358 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 10% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are lower today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down by -0.40%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -1.26%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell closed down -1.21%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are up by +7 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -4.0 bp to 4.058%.  Mar T-notes climbed to a 2.25-month high today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2.25-month low of 4.048%.  T-notes recovered from overnight losses and moved higher on a smaller-than-expected increase in US Jan CPI, which is dovish for Fed policy.  Also, bond dealer short covering is boosting T-note prices as dealers lift short hedges placed in T-note futures to hedge against this week’s Treasury sales of T-notes and T-bonds in the quarterly refunding. 

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 2.25-month low of 2.753% and is down -2.4 bp to 2.755%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield slid to a 3-week low of 4.420% and is down -3.2 bp to 4.421%.

The German Jan wholesale price index rose +0.9% m/m, the largest increase in a year.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are moving higher today, led by a +10% jump in Applied Materials (AMAT) after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.38, better than the consensus of $2.21, and forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.44 to $2.84, stronger than the consensus of $2.29.  Also, Lam Research (LRCX) is up more than +4%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) are up more than +2%.  In addition, ASML Holdings NV (ASML), Intel (INTC), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +1%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up by more than +4%.  Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500.  Also, Strategy (MSTR) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up more than +7%. In addition, MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +6%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +5%.

Metal companies are under pressure today on reports that the Trump administration is working to narrow its tariffs on steel and aluminum products.  Century Aluminum (CENX) is down more than -6%, and Steel Dynamics (STLD), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), and Nucor Corp (NUE) are down more than -2%.  Also, Alcoa (AA) and Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) are down more than -1%.   

Tri Point Homes (TPH) is up more than +26% after being acquired by Sumitomo Forestry for about $4.28 billion, or $47 a share. 

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is up more than +19% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.29 billion, above the consensus of $1.26 billion, and forecasting full-year vehicle deliveries of 62,000 to 67,000, the midpoint above the consensus of 63,402.

Maplebear (CART) is up more than +13% after reporting Q4 total revenue of $992 million, stronger than the consensus of $971.8 million. 

Dexcom (DXCM) is up more than +8% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.26 billion, better than the consensus of $1.25 billion.

Arista Networks (ANET) is up more than +5% to lead gainers after reporting Q4 revenue of $2.49 billion, better than the consensus of $2.29 billion, and forecasting Q1 revenue of $2.6 billion, above the consensus of $2.39 billion.

Roku (ROKU) is up more than +5% after reporting Q4 net revenue of $1.39 billion, above the consensus of $1.35 billion, and forecasting full-year net revenue of $5.50 billion, better than the consensus of $5.34 billion. 

Airbnb (ABNB) is up more than +4% after reporting Q4 gross booking value of $20.4 billion, better than the consensus of $19.46 billion, and forecasting Q1 revenue of $2.59 billion to $2.63 billion, above the consensus of $2.54 billion.

Pinterest (PINS) is down more than -21% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.32 billion, below the consensus of $1.33 billion, and forecasting Q1 revenue of $951 million to $971 million, weaker than the consensus of $980.9 million. 

DraftKings (DKNG) is down more than -12% after forecasting full-year revenue of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion, well below the consensus of $7.32 billion. 

Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN) is down more than -12% after reporting Q4 total revenue of $751.2 million, weaker than the consensus of $774.7 million. 

Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO) is down more than -10% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.51, below the consensus of $2.71.

Expedia Group (EXPE) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 despite posting better-than-expected Q4 earnings after Bloomberg Intelligence warned that AI is “a long-term risk for the broader online travel industry.” 

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is down more than -4% after CEO Harry Sommer stepped down immediately and was replaced by John Chidsey.

Earnings Reports(2/13/2026)

Air Lease Corp (AL), Moderna Inc (MRNA), Seaboard Corp (SEB), Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), Wendy's Co/The (WEN).