Stock Indexes Rebound Despite Rising Oil Prices

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.35%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.48%.

Stock indexes are rebounding in spite of crude oil prices jumping more than +2% today as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, and Israeli attacks on Lebanon threaten to derail the fragile ceasefire. The US and Iran both accused each other of violating the ceasefire, with a key disagreement over whether the truce extends to Lebanon.  President Trump pledged to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of Saturday’s talks with Iran, while Iran warned there may be mines in the strait.   

US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +16,000 to an 8-week high of 219,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 210,000.

US Feb personal spending rose +0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m.  Feb personal income unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the first decline in nine months.

The US Feb core PCE price index rose +0.4% m/m and +3.0% y/y, right on expectations.

US Q4 GDP was revised downward to +0.5% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of no change at +0.7%, as Q4 personal consumption was revised lower to +1.9% from the previously reported +2.0%.

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) remain volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses amid news headlines about Iran.  Crude prices are up by more than +7% today as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with Iran still restricting access and preventing energy flows to global markets.  Iran’s deputy foreign minister said today that oil tankers and other vessels seeking to transit the strait must communicate with Iranian authorities to ensure their safe passage.  There are more than 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf, with over 1,000 vessels waiting on both sides of the strait to transit.  Before the war, the average daily volume of ships transiting through the strait was about 135.

The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are lower today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -1.02%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.72%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.73%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down -5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.4 bp to 4.315%.   T-notes are under pressure today due to a +7% jump in WTI crude oil prices, which has boosted inflation expectations and is hawkish for Fed policy.  Supply pressures are also weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $22 billion of 30-year T-bonds later today.

T-note prices have support today from weaker-than-expected US economic news.  Q4 GDP was unexpectedly revised downward, Feb personal income and spending came in lower than expected, and weekly jobless claims rose to an 8-week high. 

European government bond yields are higher.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +8.3 bp to 3.027%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +11.7 bp to 4.828%.

German Feb industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.7% m/m increase.

German trade news was better than expected after German Feb exports rose +3.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.3% m/m and the biggest increase in 3.75 years.  Feb imports rose +4.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +3.5% m/m and the biggest increase in 2.75 years.

ECB Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen said, "Persistently high oil prices will ultimately feed through to the prices of other products, and thus also to wage formation, which could amplify inflationary effects. In that case, the ECB will naturally intervene to keep inflation around 2% in the medium term."

Swaps are discounting a 28% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks are under pressure today after Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents and Meta Platforms unveiled a new artificial intelligence model.  Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is down more than -7%, and Atlassian (TEAM) and Autodesk (ADSK) are down more than -6%.  Also, ServiceNow (NOW), Workday (WDAY), and Intuit (INTU) are down more than -5%, and Adobe (ADBE) is down more than -4%.  In addition, Salesforce (CRM) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and 

Zscaler (ZS) is down more than -8% to lead the Nasdaq 100 losers, and cybersecurity stocks are lower after BTIG LLC downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.  Also, Cloudflare (NET) is down more than -8%.  Okta (OKTA) is down more than -6%.  In addition, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) are down more than -4%, and Fortinet (FTNT) is down more than -3%.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and chip stocks higher after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $150.  Also, Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +6%, and Intel (INTC) and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +3%.  Also, Texas Instruments (TXN) and Applied Materials (AMAT) are up more than +2%.  In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and KLA Corp (KLAC) are up more than +1%. 

Energy producers and energy service providers are moving higher today, with WTI crude oil up more than +7%.  APA Corp (APA), Devon Energy (DVN), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are up more than +2%. Also, Baker Hughes (BKR), Exxon Mobil (XOM), SLB Ltd (SLB), ConocoPhillips (COP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Chevron (CVX), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +1%. 

Simply Good Foods (SMPL) is down more than -18% after reporting Q2 net sales of $326.0 million, weaker than the consensus of $344.4 million, and forecasting full-year net sales down -7% to -10% to $1.31 billion and $1.35 billion. 

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is down more than -5% after Compass Point Research & Trading LLC downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $77.

Whitestone REIT (WSR) is up more than +11% after entering into a definitive merger agreement with Ares Real Estate funds to be acquired for $1.7 billion, or about $19 per share.

Constellation Brands (STZ) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 comparable net sales of $1.92 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.88 billion. 

Earnings Reports(4/9/2026)

Byrna Technologies Inc (BYRN), Lifezone Metals Ltd (LZM), MainStreet Bancshares Inc (MNSB), Neogen Corp (NEOG), PTC Inc (PTC), RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc (RICK), Simply Good Foods Co/The (SMPL), Simulations Plus Inc (SLP), WD-40 Co (WDFC).