The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.46%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.09%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.61%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.50%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.62%.
Stock indexes recovered from early losses today and turned higher after chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks rebounded. Also, mining stocks are climbing today, with the price of gold up more than 1% and silver prices jumping more than 6%. The markets are awaiting this week’s monthly US reports on jobs and inflation to gauge the sustainability of economic growth.
Stocks initially moved lower today after technology stocks fell. Also, rising US bond yields pressured stocks after Chinese regulators told banks to scale back their holdings of US debt, reviving worries over the haven status of US assets.
However, T-note yields fell back from their highs on dovish comments from National Economic Council Director Hassett, who said we should expect slightly lower US job numbers, citing slower population growth and higher productivity. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2 bp to 4.22%.
The markets this week will focus on corporate earnings results and economic news. On Tuesday, the Q4 employment cost index is expected to rise by 0.8%. Also, Dec retail sales are expected to climb by +0.4% m/m and +0.4% m/m ex-autos. On Wednesday, Jan nonfarm payrolls are expected to climb +69,000, and the Jan unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Also, Jan average hourly earnings are expected to rise by +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y. On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to fall by -7,000 to 224,000. Also, Jan existing home sales are expected to decline by -3.5% m/m to 4.20 million. On Friday, Jan CPI is expected up +2.5% y/y and Jan core CPI is expected up +2.5% y/y.
Q4 earnings season is in full swing, as more than half of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 79% of the 293 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting a 19% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Overseas stock markets are moving higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up by +0.66%. China’s Shanghai Composite rose to a 1-week high and closed up +1.41%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a new all-time high and closed up sharply by +3.89%.
Interest Rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down by -2 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.0 bp to 4.216%. T-note prices are under pressure today after Chinese regulators told banks to scale back their holdings of US debt, reviving worries over the haven status of US assets. Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-note prices as the Treasury will auction $125 billion of T-notes and T-bonds in this week’s quarterly refunding, beginning Tuesday’s $58 billion auction of 3-year T-notes. However, T-notes recovered from their worst levels after National Economic Council Director Hassett said we should expect slightly lower US job numbers, citing slower population growth and higher productivity.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.2 bp to 2.844%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up by +2.4 bp to 4.538%.
The Eurozone Feb Sentix investor confidence index rose +6.0 to a 7-month high of 4.2, stronger than expectations of 0.0.
ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said the ECB should only alter interest rates “if there is a major departure from our baseline scenario” for growth and inflation.
Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US Stock Movers
Chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks recovered from early losses today and are moving higher, boosting the broader market. Nvidia (NVDA) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +2%. Also, ASML Holding NV (ASML) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +1%.
Mining stocks are moving higher today, with the price of gold up more than +1% and silver up +6%. Coeur Mining (CDE) is up more than +6%, and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is up more than +5%. Also, Hecla Mining (HL) is up more than +4%, Newmont Mining (NEM) is up more than +3%, and Barrick Mining (B) is up more than +2%.
AppLovin (APP) is up more than +13% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Citigroup said the company’s clients through the week of February 6 are up +3% from the prior week.
Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +9% after D.A. Davidson upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $180.
TEGNA Inc (TGNA) is up more than +7% after President Trump backed Nexstar Media Group’s proposed acquisition of the company.
Kroger (KR) is up more than +6% after announcing that ex-Walmart executive Foran will be the company’s next CEO.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is up more than +5% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to outperform from peer perform with a price target of $125.
Dynatrace (DT) is up more than +4% after reporting Q3 revenue of $515.5 million, better than the consensus of $506.6 million, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $2.01 billion from $1.99 billion to $2.00 billion, above the consensus of $1.99 billion.
Apollo Global Management (APO) is up more than +2% after reporting Q4 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.46, stronger than the consensus of $2.04.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is up more than +2% after Citizens Jmp Securities LLC upgraded the stock to market outperform from market perform with a price target of $30.
Kyndryl Holdings (KD) is down more than -54% after reporting Q3 revenue of $3.86 billion, below the consensus of $3.89 billion, and cutting its full-year adjusted pretax profit estimate to $575 million-$600 million from a previous estimate of at least $725 million.
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is down more than -23% after it said it will stop selling its recently launched copycat version of the new Wegovy weight-loss pill.
Monday.com (MNDY) is down more than -21% after forecasting Q4 revenue of $328 million to $330 million, below the consensus of $333.7 million.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is down more than -18% after reporting Q4 revenue of $4.31 billion, well below the consensus of $4.58 billion.
Waters (WAT) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.25 to $2.35, weaker than the consensus of $2.52.
Workday (WDAY) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after CEO Eschenbach is leaving immediately and will serve as an advisor.
Beckton Dickinson (BDX) is down more than -2% after reporting Q1 life sciences revenue of $766 million, well below the consensus of $1.3 billion.
Earnings Reports(2/9/2026)
AECOM (ACM), Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM), Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR), Apollo Global Management Inc (APO), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX), Brixmor Property Group Inc (BRX), Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF), CNA Financial Corp (CNA), Corebridge Financial Inc (CRBG), Dynatrace Inc (DT), Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC), Kyndryl Holdings Inc (KD), Loews Corp (L), Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP), ON Semiconductor Corp (ON), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (SSD), UDR Inc (UDR), Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), ZoomInfo Technologies Inc (GTM).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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