Stocks Set for Muted Open as Bond Yields Climb, Key U.S. Economic Data Awaited

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.03%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.19% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as rising Treasury yields curbed investors’ risk appetite.

The 10-year T-note yield rose three basis points to 4.24% after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators had told financial institutions to scale back their U.S. Treasury holdings, citing concerns about concentration risks and market volatility. Treasury yields also tracked a rise in Japanese government bond yields following a historic election victory by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

This week, investors will focus on key U.S. economic data, including monthly employment and inflation figures, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and earnings reports from a slew of high-profile companies.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed sharply higher, with the Dow notching a new all-time high. Chip stocks rallied after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC that demand for AI is “incredibly high,” with ARM Holdings (ARM) surging over +11% and Nvidia (NVDA) climbing more than +7% to lead gainers in the Dow. Also, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks soared after the price of Bitcoin surged more than +11%, with Strategy (MSTR) jumping over +26% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and MARA Holdings (MARA) rising more than +22%. In addition, Bill Holdings (BILL) popped over +37% after the financial services firm raised its full-year guidance and Bloomberg reported that Hellman & Friedman was in talks to acquire the company. On the bearish side, Amazon.com (AMZN) slid more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow and Nasdaq 100 after the e-commerce and technology giant unveiled plans to spend $200 billion this year on AI infrastructure.

“Investors are rising to the occasion and aggressively buying the dip in stocks,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “Basement ‘animal spirits’ are offering value hunters opportunities to accumulate shares amid a general sense on Wall Street that the selling has gone too far.”

Economic data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to a 6-month high of 57.3 in February, stronger than expectations of 55.0. Also, U.S. consumer credit rose by $24.05 billion in December, stronger than expectations of $9 billion.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Friday he is “cautiously optimistic” about the U.S. economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth could help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target. “I expect the disinflationary process to resume this year once increased tariffs pass through more fully to prices,” Jefferson said. With the central bank “strongly committed to returning inflation to its target, the risk of such a one-time shift leading to sustained inflation is likely to be low,” he said. “This implies that there is more leeway for the supply side of the economy to evolve without the need for precautionary monetary policy restraint.”

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said, “What I’ve learned is that we really don’t want to have inflation. Once inflation gets entrenched in people’s minds, it changes how the economy evolves, and it’s one of the reasons why I think that we need to keep our policy in a restrictive posture so that we get inflation back to 2%. That’s paramount.” He also brushed aside recent downbeat reports on hiring and layoffs, saying he does not anticipate a significant deterioration in the labor market.

U.S. rate futures have priced in an 84.2% probability of no rate change and a 15.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.

This week, delayed U.S. jobs and inflation data will be the main highlights, as investors assess when the Fed is likely to lower interest rates again. The January jobs report is set to be released on Wednesday after being delayed from February 6th due to the partial government shutdown. Notably, the report will include revisions to job growth for the year through March 2025, which are expected to show a significant markdown in the pace of hiring. The January CPI data will be released on Friday, delayed from February 11th, with investors seeking further evidence that inflation is on a downward trend to pave the way for rate cuts in the months ahead. U.S. retail sales data for December will also attract attention, as market participants watch to see whether American consumers sustained their spending momentum during the holiday shopping season. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. Employment Cost Index, Import and Export Price Indexes, Initial Jobless Claims, and Existing Home Sales.

Market watchers will also parse comments from a slew of Fed officials. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, along with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, are scheduled to speak this week.

Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, and investors await fresh reports from prominent companies this week, including Applied Materials (AMAT), ON Semiconductor (ON), Arista Networks (ANET), Cisco Systems (CSCO), McDonald’s (MCD), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Shopify (SHOP), AppLovin (APP), Gilead Sciences (GILD), CVS Health (CVS), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), and Ford (F). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.

The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.237%, up +0.81%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.18% this morning, extending gains from the previous session. Defense and bank stocks outperformed on Monday. Technology stocks also advanced, led by a more than +6% gain in STMicroelectronics (STMPA.FP) after the company secured a multibillion-dollar deal with Amazon.com’s cloud-computing unit. A survey released on Monday showed that the Sentix index measuring investor morale in the Eurozone jumped in February, marking a third straight monthly increase and its highest reading since July 2025. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said on Monday that the ECB is just as likely to hike or cut interest rates, though the timing of any move remains unclear amid ongoing uncertainty around trade and geopolitics. Investor focus this week is on the second estimate of fourth-quarter Eurozone GDP and final January inflation data from Spain. In other corporate news, Inpost S.A. (INPST.NA) surged over +13% after a consortium led by investment firm Advent and FedEx agreed to acquire the company in a $9.2 billion deal. Also, Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB.C.DX) climbed more than +8% after Hims & Hers said it would stop offering a copycat version of the drugmaker’s weight-loss pill.

Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence Index was released today.

The Eurozone February Sentix Investor Confidence Index came in at 4.2, stronger than expectations of -0.2.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +1.41%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +3.89%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as global risk sentiment improved following Friday’s rally on Wall Street. Film producers, media, and entertainment stocks led the gains on Monday as investors wagered that spending during the upcoming Lunar New Year holidays would boost their revenues. Also, real-world-asset-related stocks advanced on expectations that they would benefit from Beijing’s move to establish a legal framework for RWA tokenization business. In addition, technology stocks gained ground. Brokerages recommend investors hold onto their stock positions ahead of next week’s Lunar New Year festival, saying the recent correction has likely ended. “Investors who are willing to hold the stocks through the festival will be rewarded,” according to Caitong Securities. Meanwhile, China’s yuan inched up to a new 33-month high against the U.S. dollar on Monday after Bloomberg reported that regulators had advised financial institutions to curb their holdings of U.S. Treasuries. In corporate news, Montage Technology jumped +64% in its Hong Kong trading debut after the world’s largest memory interconnect chip supplier raised $902 million in a share offering primarily to fund research. Investor attention this week is squarely on China’s inflation data for January, which should help determine whether deflationary pressures are easing or becoming more entrenched.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher and hit a new record high today after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory fueled expectations of increased government spending in key industries. Technology and industrial stocks were among the biggest gainers on Monday. Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, secured 354 seats in Japan’s 465-seat lower house. The LDP alone won 316 seats, marking its largest majority on record. The election win will allow Takaichi to push ahead with expansionary fiscal policies that have already propelled Japanese stocks to record highs. The ruling LDP’s “historic victory gives Prime Minister Takaichi a stable majority, reducing coalition constraints and enabling decisive action on fiscal stimulus, AI, semiconductors, energy security, and strategic reforms,” according to Marc Jocum, senior investment strategist at Global X Management. Expectations of political stability prompted JPMorgan strategists to raise their year-end Nikkei target to 61,000 from 60,000 on Monday. Meanwhile, the yen strengthened against the dollar after Takaichi’s victory, moving away from levels seen as likely to trigger intervention. On the economic front, data released on Monday showed that Japan’s real wages declined in December for a 12th straight month, as nominal pay growth slightly lagged easing consumer inflation. Real wages, a key measure of consumer purchasing power, slipped 0.1% in December from a year earlier. Barclays strategists said in a note that Takaichi’s victory could enable the Bank of Japan to proceed with monetary policy normalization at a somewhat faster pace. Investors will be watching for a speech from BOJ policy board member Naoki Tamura later this week for clues on the timing of the next rate hike. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -8.22% to 35.82.

The Japanese December Current Account n.s.a. stood at 7.288 trillion yen, stronger than expectations of 1.060 trillion yen.

The Japanese January Economy Watchers Current Index came in at 47.6, weaker than expectations of 49.1.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip stocks are moving lower in pre-market trading, with Micron Technology (MU) falling over -3% and Marvell Technology (MRVL) dropping more than -1%.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) plunged over -15% in pre-market trading after the online drug retailer announced that it would stop offering a compounded pill version of Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drug Wegovy.

Kroger (KR) climbed more than +5% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that the retailer is set to hire former Walmart executive Greg Foran as its next CEO.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI) rose nearly +3% in pre-market trading after Citizens upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a $30 price target.

Oracle (ORCL) gained more than +2% in pre-market trading after DA Davidson upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with an $180 price target.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - February 9th

Apollo Global Management (APO), Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX), Arch Capital Group (ACGL), Cincinnati Financial (CINF), ON Semiconductor (ON), Loews (L), Principal Financial Group (PFG), Corebridge Financial (CRBG), Medpace Holdings (MEDP), UDR, Inc. (UDR), CNA Financial (CNA), AECOM (ACM), Amkor Technology (AMKR), Dynatrace (DT), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Amentum Holdings (AMTM), Brixmor Property Group (BRX), Simpson Manufacturing Co. (SSD), Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), Kyndryl Holdings (KD), monday.com (MNDY), Kilroy Realty (KRC), Brighthouse Financial (BHF), The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT), Curbline Properties (CURB), Upwork (UPWK), ZoomInfo Technologies (GTM), The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son (NTB), Danaos (DAC), Sally Beauty Holdings (SBH), Red Cat Holdings (RCAT), Pagaya Technologies (PGY), Universal (UVV), Alexander’s (ALX), Prospect Capital (PSEC), Ichor Holdings (ICHR), Edgewell Personal Care Company (EPC), PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT), Unitil (UTL), Columbus McKinnon (CMCO), PowerFleet (AIOT), Safe Bulkers (SB), The Manitowoc Company (MTW), Enanta Pharmaceuticals (ENTA), PennantPark Investment (PNNT), Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL), Radiant Logistics (RLGT), Proficient Auto Logistics (PAL), Motorcar Parts of America (MPAA), Outdoor Holding Company (POWW), The Hain Celestial Group (HAIN).