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10-Year T-Note Jun '15 (ZNM15)

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10-Year T-Note Futures Market News and Commentary

10-year T-notes Close Lower on Hawkish Fed Comments and Weak European Government Bonds

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU19) on Thursday closed down -7.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield rose by +2.2 bp to 1.611%. Sep T-notes fell back Thursday on negative carry-over from weak European bonds along with hawkish Fed comments. Hawkish comments today from Kansas City Fed President George weighed on T-notes when she said the U.S. economy "doesn't need more accommodation without seeing an outlook that suggests the economy is getting weaker." Also, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said, "the labor market is strong, and inflation is moving up slowly" and that he's "on hold" right now for further Fed rate cuts. Weakness in European bond markets weighed on T-notes Thursday. The 10-year German bund yield on Thursday rose to a 1-week high of -0.617% after data showed that the Eurozone Aug Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.5 to 47.0, stronger than expectations of -0.3 to 46.2. The 10-year UK gilt yield on Thursday rose to a 2-week high of 0.534% on reduced safe-haven demand on optimism about a Brexit deal after comments Thursday from Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron suggest there may be a solution to the Brexit impasse. Global economic concerns were a positive for government bond prices Thursday after the minutes of the July 24-25 ECB meeting said policy makers agreed the Eurozone's economic slowdown was likely to be more protracted than expected and that the prospects for global trade "remained poor." Thursday's U.S. economic data was mixed for T-notes after weekly initial unemployment claims fell -12,000 to 209,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of -4,000 to 216,000, which is hawkish for Fed policy. However, the Aug Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 49.9, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 50.5 and the first time that manufacturing activity contracted in nearly 10 years, which is dovish for Fed policy. U.S./China trade tensions remain high, which is positive for T-notes, after the yuan fell to a new 11-1/4 year low against the dollar Thursday at 7.0965 yuan/USD. The yuan recovered slightly, but still finished the day down -0.34% at 7.0866 yuan/USD. U.S. inflation expectations moved slightly higher Thursday as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate rose +0.5 bp to 1.548%, stabilizing above Wednesday's 2-3/4 year low of 1.529%.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
10-Year Treasury-Note
Contract Size
$100,000
Tick Size
One half of 1/32 of a point ($15.625 per contract) rounded up to the nearest cent per contract; par is on the basis of 100 points
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,430/1,300
First Notice Date
05/29/15
Expiration Date
06/19/15 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

10-Year T-Note Jun '15
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jun Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Aug 13, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
2,616,217 (+40,837)
2,284,537 (+30,570)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
635,384 (-23,062)
1,049,730 (+398)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
199,316 (+18,389)
306,210 (+59,433)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
1,737,889 (+17,891)
636,530 (-4,441)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
324,614 (+4,679)
1,347,370 (+8,202)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
218,545 (-2,786)
272,920 (-11,828)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
125-100 +1.56%
on 06/11/15
128-105 -0.83%
on 05/29/15
+0-075 (+0.18%)
since 05/19/15
3-Month
125-100 +1.56%
on 06/11/15
130-040 -2.20%
on 04/03/15
-0-305 (-0.74%)
since 03/19/15
52-Week
122-105 +4.04%
on 07/03/14
130-200 -2.57%
on 01/30/15
+4-160 (+3.67%)
since 06/19/14

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 127-270
1st Resistance Point 127-175
Last Price 127-085s
1st Support Level 126-295
2nd Support Level 126-190

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52-Week High 130-200
Fibonacci 61.8% 127-145
Last Price 127-085s
Fibonacci 50% 126-155
Fibonacci 38.2% 125-160
52-Week Low 122-105

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