Stocks Settle Higher as AI Disruption Fears Ease

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed up +0.77%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.76%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.09%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) rose +0.76%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) rose +1.08%.

Stock indexes settled higher on Tuesday, recovering some of Monday’s sharp losses.  A rebound in software companies and chipmakers on Tuesday from Monday’s rout lifted the broader market.  Software and chipmakers moved higher Tuesday after AI startup Anthropic PBC emphasized partnerships with companies and said its new AI tools for its Claude Cowork agent software are to integrate rather than displace existing systems.

Stocks tumbled on Monday amid US trade uncertainty and concerns about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, after Citrini Research published a report outlining the potential risks it could pose to various segments of the global economy. 

Stocks added to their gains on Tuesday after the Conference Board US Feb consumer confidence index rose by +2.2 to 91.2, stronger than expectations of 87.1.   

President Trump’s new 10% global tariffs went into effect on Tuesday after the Supreme Court struck down his global “reciprocal” tariffs last Friday.  Mr. Trump subsequently threatened to raise the global tariff rate to 15%, and an administration official said the White House is working on a formal order to implement that higher rate, but the timeline for its implementation has not been finalized.  Mr. Trump is applying the 10% baseline levy under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the president to impose the charge for 150 days without congressional approval. 

Geopolitical risks are a negative for stocks.  US-Iran nuclear talks are scheduled to resume on Thursday in Geneva, and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he saw a “good chance” of a diplomatic solution to the standoff over his country’s nuclear program. Last Friday, President Trump said that he’s considering a limited military strike on Iran to ramp up pressure on the country to strike a deal over its nuclear program, and that he thought 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the “maximum” he would allow for negotiations to continue.

The US Dec S&P composite-20 home price index rose +0.47% m/m and +1.38% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.30% m/m and +1.30% y/y.

The US Feb Richmond Fed manufacturing survey of current conditions unexpectedly fell -4 to -10, weaker than expectations of an increase to -5.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said, "I remain optimistic that there can be more rate cuts this year, but that hinges on seeing actual progress on inflation that shows we are on a path back to 2%."

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said interest rates are likely to remain unchanged "for some time" as recent economic data show an improvement in the labor market, while inflation risks remain.

The market’s focus this week will be on corporate earnings results and economic news.  Later tonight, President Trump delivers his State of the Union address.  On Wednesday, Nvidia releases its earnings results after the close.  On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to climb by +10,000 to 216,000.  On Friday, the Feb MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slip -1.8 to 52.2. 

Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more than 88% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 441 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets settled higher on Tuesday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.04%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.87%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.87%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) on Tuesday closed down by -2.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +0.4 bp to 4.035%.  T-notes posted modest losses on Tuesday as a recovery in stocks reduced some safe-haven demand for T-notes.  Also, the better-than-expected US Feb consumer confidence report undercut T-note prices.  T-notes recovered from their worst levels Tuesday on strong demand for the Treasury’s $69 billion auction of 2-year T-notes, which had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63, above the 10-auction average of 2.61.

European government bond yields are mixed today.  The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 2.75-month low of 2.696% and finished down -0.4 bp to 2.707%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 14.25-month low of 4.291% and finished down -0.8 bp to 4.306%.

Eurozone Jan new car registrations fell -3.9% y/y to 800,000, the largest decline in seven months.

Swaps are discounting a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks rebounded on Tuesday, led by an +11% jump in Thomson Reuters (TRI) after the company said it reached one million professional users of CoCounsel, its legal and business artificial intelligence tool, and announced that it was working with Anthropic’s Claude model.  Also, Salesforce (CRM) closed up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Adobe Systems (ADBE), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Atlassian (TEAM), and Oracle (ORCL) closed up more than +3%.  In addition, Service Now (NOW) and Datadog (DDOG) closed up more than +1%. 

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed up more than +8% to lead chipmakers higher after Meta Platforms said it will deploy data center gear based on processors from AMD in a deal worth “double-digit billion” dollars per gigawatt.  Also, Intel (INTC) closed up more than +6%, and  ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed up more than +3%.  In addition, ASML Holding NV (ASML), Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +1%. 

Palvella Therapeutics (PVLA) closed up more than +36% after stating a late-stage trial of its experimental therapy for lymphatic malformations met its main goal.

Keysight Technologies (KEYS) closed up more than +23% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.17, stronger than the consensus of $1.99, and forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.27 to $2.33, well above the consensus of $1.91. 

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) closed up more than +6% after Stripe Inc. said it is considering an acquisition of all or parts of the company.

Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up more than +3% after Loop Capital Markets upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $185. 

BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed up more than +3% after reporting Q4 revenue of $885.8 million, better than the consensus of $837.5 million, and forecasting full-year revenue of $3.75 billion, above the consensus of $3.68 billion.

Henry Schein (HSIC) closed up more than +3% after reporting Q4 net sales of $3.44 billion, better than the consensus of $3.35 billion.

Home Depot (HD) closed up more than +2% after reporting Q4 comparable sales unexpectedly rose +0.4%, better than the consensus of a decline of -0.36%. 

Genuine Parts Co (GPC) closed up more than +2 after Raymond James upgraded the stock to strong buy from market perform with a price target of $145. 

Whirlpool (WHR) closed down more than -13% after announcing a concurrent separate underwritten public offerings of shares of common stock and depositary shares, each representing a 1/20^th interest in a share of newly issued Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred stock. 

Ziff Davis (ZD) closed down more than -10% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.56, weaker than the consensus of $2.70.

Planet Fitness (PLNT) closed down more than -8% after forecasting 2026 adjusted Ebitda of $607 million, below the consensus of $621.9 million.

Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 operating income of $250.9 million, weaker than the consensus of $253.4 million.

Option Care Health (OPCH) closed down more than -6% after forecasting full-year revenue of $5.8 billion to $6.0 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $5.95 billion.

Cable One (CABO) closed down more than -5% after BNP Paribas downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $80. 

Oneok (OKE) closed down more than -4% after reporting Q4 adjusted Ebitda of $2.15 billion, below the consensus of $2.16 billion.

Earnings Reports(2/25/2026)

Agilent Technologies Inc (A), APA Corp (APA), Ferrovial SE (FER), Lowe's Cos Inc (LOW), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), Paramount Skydance Corp (PSKY), Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW), Salesforce Inc (CRM), Synopsys Inc (SNPS), TJX Cos Inc/The (TJX), TKO Group Holdings Inc (TKO), Trade Desk Inc/The (TTD), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), VICI Properties Inc (VICI).