S&P Futures Muted After Rally, U.S. Economic Data and Earnings in Focus

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are trending down -0.04% this morning, taking a breather after a rally fueled by optimism about the prospect of a peace deal in the Middle East.

The U.S. and Iran are reportedly seeking to arrange a second round of peace negotiations. President Trump told the New York Post on Tuesday that talks could restart “over the next two days” and said in a Fox Business interview that the war was “very close to being over.” The Associated Press reported on Wednesday that mediators moved closer to extending the ceasefire between the two sides. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. aims to strike a deal with Iran that would allow its people to thrive as part of the global economy, but only if Tehran commits to not having a nuclear weapon. The price of WTI crude gained over +1% on Wednesday as the U.S. pressed ahead with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but it remained near three-week lows.

Investors are now awaiting a fresh batch of U.S. economic data and quarterly reports from more big banks.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the green. Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks climbed, with Meta Platforms (META) gaining over +4%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) rising more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow. Also, chip stocks advanced, with Micron Technology (MU) surging over +9% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising more than +3%. In addition, Globalstar (GSAT) jumped over +9% after Amazon.com agreed to buy the company for $11.6 billion. On the bearish side, Wells Fargo (WFC) sank more than -5% and was among the top percentage losers on the S&P 500 after the lender posted weaker-than-expected Q1 net interest income.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. March wholesale inflation was softer than expected, providing an encouraging signal on the impact of the Middle East conflict. The U.S. producer price index for final demand rose +0.5% m/m and +4.0% y/y in March, weaker than expectations of +1.1% m/m and +4.6% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose +0.1% m/m and +3.8% y/y in March, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.2% y/y.

“The underlying trends heading into the Iran war make it much more likely that disinflation can continue and we should be able to price in rate cuts later this year,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that the central bank may need to wait until next year to cut interest rates if a prolonged period of elevated oil prices from the Middle East conflict slows inflation’s progress toward its 2% target.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.5% probability of no rate change and a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at April’s monetary policy meeting.

First-quarter corporate earnings season is gathering pace, and investors look ahead to new reports from major U.S. banks such as Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS), as well as notable companies like Progressive (PGR), PNC Financial (PNC), and J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +12% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the import price index to rise +2.3% m/m and the export price index to rise +1.5% m/m in March, compared to the previous month’s figures of +1.3% m/m and +1.5% m/m, respectively.

The New York Fed-compiled Empire State Manufacturing Index will also be released today. Economists project the April figure to come in at 0.3, compared to -0.2 in March.

The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 2.1 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of 3.1 million barrels.

In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Fed Governor Michael Barr, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack.

Later today, the Fed will release its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts, which provides an update on economic conditions in each of the 12 Fed districts. The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.26%, up +0.24%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.32% this morning as disappointing results from the luxury sector dampened sentiment, while investors kept a close eye on developments in the Middle East. Luxury stocks tumbled on Wednesday, pressured by sharp declines in Hermes and Kering following disappointing sales updates as the Middle East conflict weighed on performance. Limiting losses, technology stocks climbed, with Aixtron (AIXA.D.DX) surging over +13% after the chip systems manufacturer boosted its full-year revenue guidance. Healthcare stocks also advanced. Data from Eurostat released on Wednesday showed that the Eurozone’s monthly industrial production rose more than expected in February, though output is likely to fall in the coming months as higher energy prices, fueled by the Middle East conflict, start to weigh on the sector. Separately, final data confirmed that France’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.7% in March. Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday that rising energy costs have moved the Eurozone away from the central bank’s base-case scenario, though not sufficiently to warrant tilting toward higher interest rates. “We are in between the baseline and the adverse” scenarios for the Middle East conflict, Lagarde said. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are scheduled to speak later in the day. In corporate news, Kering (KER.P.DX) slumped over -10% after the luxury fashion group posted a bigger-than-expected drop in Q1 sales at its flagship brand Gucci. Also, Hermes (RMS.FP) sank more than -8% after the Birkin bag maker reported a slowdown in Q1 sales growth, noting that activity was “significantly affected” by the situation in the Middle East.

France’s CPI and Eurozone’s Industrial Production data were released today.

The French March CPI rose +1.0% m/m and +1.7% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.9% m/m and +1.7% y/y.

Eurozone’s February Industrial Production rose +0.4% m/m and fell -0.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and -1.0% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.01%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.44%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed just above the flatline today, holding at a 1-month high following a rally driven by optimism over renewed U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. The U.S. and Iran are reportedly aiming to organize a second round of talks in the coming days, with investors now awaiting confirmation. Pharmaceutical and logistics stocks outperformed on Wednesday. Notably, the country’s CSI 300 Index became the latest benchmark to recover its losses since the Middle East conflict began. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Wednesday that Chinese officials have held preliminary discussions with solar equipment manufacturers as they weigh curbing exports of the most advanced technology to the U.S. If adopted, it would expand export controls in another technological field where China holds an advantage, building on Beijing’s move a year ago to restrict rare earth exports in response to U.S. tariffs. In other news, the International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.4% from a prior estimate of 4.5%, with growth projected to slow further to 4.0% in 2027. The IMF’s baseline scenario assumes the Middle East conflict will be short-lived, but it cautioned that extended hostilities would weigh more heavily on growth. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that China’s exports remain robust, but sluggish domestic consumption is becoming a larger drag. Investor focus is now squarely on China’s first-quarter GDP data, scheduled for release on Thursday, which will reveal how the economy performed during what has been a turbulent year so far. The nation’s retail sales, industrial production, and property investment data for March, due the same day, will indicate the degree of momentum heading into the second quarter.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, hitting a more than 1-month high on optimism over renewed U.S.-Iran talks. The U.S. and Iran are reportedly seeking to arrange a second round of peace talks in the coming days as a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz deepens the global energy crisis and complicates diplomatic efforts. The Nikkei climbed above the 58,000 mark for the first time since March 2nd. Notably, the benchmark index has now recovered most of the losses incurred since the start of the Middle East conflict at the end of February. Healthcare, technology, and financial stocks led the gains on Wednesday. At the same time, energy and industrial stocks slid. Meanwhile, Japan’s super-long bond yields fell on Wednesday following a strong 20-year bond auction in the previous session, flattening the curve as expectations of an early Bank of Japan rate hike dampened demand for shorter-dated bonds. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that BOJ officials are likely to consider sharply raising their inflation forecast at their policy meeting this month, primarily to reflect elevated oil prices. On the economic front, data showed on Wednesday that Japan’s monthly core machinery orders unexpectedly jumped in February, fueled by large-scale orders exceeding 10 billion yen each. Separately, the Reuters Tankan poll showed that Japanese manufacturers’ confidence recorded its largest month-on-month decline in more than three years in April, weighed down by soaring oil prices and supply-chain disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -6.34% to 27.46.

The Japanese February Core Machinery Orders jumped +13.6% m/m and +24.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of -1.1% m/m and +8.5% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Broadcom (AVGO) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after expanding its partnership with Meta Platforms to support the Facebook parent’s AI infrastructure buildout.

Nike (NKE) gained more than +2% in pre-market trading after a filing disclosed that Apple CEO Tim Cook and Nike CEO Elliott Hill both purchased roughly $1 million worth of shares in recent days.

GitLab (GTLB) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after the company announced an expansion of its partnership with Alphabet’s Google Cloud.

U.S.-listed shares of ASML Holding (ASML) fell over -1% in pre-market trading as a weaker-than-expected Q2 sales outlook overshadowed the company’s raised full-year sales guidance.

Parsons (PSN) slid more than -1% in pre-market trading after KeyBanc downgraded the stock to Sector Weight from Overweight.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - April 15th

Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), The Progressive Corporation (PGR), The PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), Kinder Morgan (KMI), M&T Bank (MTB), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), First Horizon (FHN), Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), Home BancShares (HOMB), SL Green Realty (SLG), CNB Financial (CCNE), Great Southern Bancorp (GSBC), TRX Gold (TRX), The First Bancorp (FNLC).