The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +0.64%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.47%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.46%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) rose +0.63%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) rose +0.49%.
Stock indexes on Monday closed higher on support from tech stocks and strength in some of the Magnificent Seven, with Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) closing up more than +1%. Sentiment towards AI stocks has improved after Micron’s (MU) positive results last week, which also supported chip stocks. Also, precious metals miners showed strength Monday, after gold and silver posted new record highs.
Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks. According to data from Citadel Securities, since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, climbing 1.3% on average.
In a bullish factor, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said Monday, “If we don’t adjust policy down, then I think we do run risks” of a recession. However, he also said he doesn’t foresee a recession.
The markets are discounting a 20% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28.
Overseas stock markets were mixed on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.29%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.69% for the fourth consecutive daily gain. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.81%.
Interest Rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) on Monday fell by -4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +1.6 bp to 4.163%. T-note prices were undercut by supply overhang and a lackluster investor reception for Monday’s auction of $69 billion of 2-year T-notes. The Treasury will sell $70 billion of 5-year T-notes and $28 billion of 2-year floating rate notes on Tuesday, and $44 billion of 7-year T-notes on Wednesday.
The Treasury yield curve has recently steepened. Short-end yields are being pushed lower by the FOMC’s announcement after its last meeting that it would begin purchasing up to $40 billion of short-term T-bills a month to boost liquidity in the financial system. Meanwhile, longer-term Treasury yields have seen upward pressure from concerns about inflation and the Fed’s independence.
European government bond yields traded higher. The 10-year German bund yield on Monday rose to a 9-month high and ended the day slightly higher by +0.2 bp at 2.897%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose by +1.2 bp to 4.536%.
Swaps are discounting a 0% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks closed mixed. Notable gainers included a rally of more than +1% in Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Chip stocks moved higher on continued support after last Friday’s rallies of +7% in Micron Technology (MU) and +6% in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Micron (MU) was a chip leader again Monday, with a gain of +4.0%. Marvel Technology (MRVL) closed up +0.8% after Citi issued a positive catalyst watch for the stock ahead of January’s CES conference.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks closed mixed after Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) gave up an early rally and ended the day slightly lower. Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) still closed up more than +2%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) closed up more than +1%. Mara Holdings (MARA) and Strategy (MSTR) closed mildly lower.
Precious metals miners saw support with new record highs in silver and gold prices. Newmont (NEM) and Coeur Mining (CDE) closed up more than +3%.
Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) rose more than +3% after Larry Ellison agreed to provide a $40.4 billion personal guarantee for Paramount Skydance’s (PSKY) bid to buy WBD, putting pressure on Netflix (NFLX) to sweeten its bid.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) rallied nearly +10% after announcing last Friday that it won its largest contract yet to build 18 satellites.
Honeywell (HON) fell -1.6% after management adjusted its guidance to reflect the reclassification of its spun-off advanced materials business as discontinued operations.
Janus Henderson (JHG) rallied more than +3% after news that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst agreed to buy Janus for about $7.4 billion.
Earnings Reports(12/23/2025)
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On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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