Stocks Soar on Robust Nvidia Earnings

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up by +1.74%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +1.40%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up by +2.09%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +1.75%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +2.14%.

US stock indexes are sharply higher today after Nvidia's robust revenue forecast eased valuation concerns and dispelled fears of a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence industry.  Nvidia is up more than 4% to lead chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks higher, sparking risk-on sentiment in asset markets.   

Stock indexes added to their gains today after bond yields whipsawed lower following Sep nonfarm payrolls that rose more than expected, but the Sep unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to a 4-year high, which bolstered expectations that the Fed may still cut interest rates at next month’s FOMC meeting.  The chance of a rate cut at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting rose to 35% today from 25% on Wednesday.

US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -8,000 to 220,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 227,000.  However, weekly continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the most in four years, and a sign that those currently unemployed are finding it challenging to secure new employment. 

US Sep nonfarm payrolls rose by +119,00 beating expectations of +51,000 and signaling a stronger labor market000.  The Sep unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by +0.1 to a nearly four-year high of 4.4%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 4.3%.

US Sep average hourly earnings remained unchanged from Aug at +3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.7% y/y. 

The US Nov Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +11.1 to -1.7, weaker than expectations of +1.0.

Hawkish comments today from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were bearish for stocks, as she said, "Lowering interest rates to support the labor market risks prolonging this period of elevated inflation, and it could also encourage risk-taking in financial markets."

This week’s US economic schedule is very heavy as a deluge of delayed economic reports will be released.  Friday brings real earnings, the S&P US manufacturing and services PMI reports, the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index, and the Kansas City Fed’s services activity report.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics said today that it will not publish an October employment report and noted it will incorporate those payroll figures into the November report set to be published on December 16.  Other delayed US economic reports are also expected to be released in the coming days, but have not yet been scheduled.

The markets are discounting a 35% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.

Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 460 of the 500 S&P companies have released results.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 82% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.25%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.40%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up sharply by +2.65%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are up by +3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.7 bp to 4.110%.  T-note prices recovered from a 2-week low today and whipsawed higher after Sep nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected, but the Sep unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to a nearly 4-year high, which bolsters speculation the Fed may still cut interest rates at next month’s FOMC meeting.  T-notes also garnered support from easing inflation expectations, as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped to a 4-week low today at 2.267%. 

European government bond yields are mixed today.  The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 6-week high of 2.742% and is up +1.2 bp to 2.724%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 5-week high of 4.619% and is down -1.6 bp at 4.586%.

German Oct PPI fell -1.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of -1.7% y/y.

ECB Governing Council member Makhlouf said Eurozone interest rates are in a "good place" and that he'd "need to see pretty compelling evidence to move."

Swaps are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

Nvidia (NVDA) is up more than +4% to lead the Magnificent Seven technology stocks higher after reporting Q3 revenue of $57.01 billion, above the consensus of $55.19 billion, and forecasting Q4 revenue of $65 billion plus or minus 2%, stronger than the consensus of $62 billion.  Also, Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +4% and Alphabet (GOOGL) is up more than +3%.  In addition, Meta Platforms (META) and Apple (AAPL) are up more than +2%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) are up more than +1%. 

Semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing due to Nvidia’s robust earnings forecast.  Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Broadcom (AVGO) are up more than +4%.  Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +3%.  In addition, Intel (INTC) and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +2%, and KLA Corp (KLAC), Microchip Technology (MCHP), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Applied Materials (AMAT), Qualcomm (QCOM), and ON Semiconductor (ON) are up more than +1% 

PACS Group (PACS) is up more than +56% after it said its restatements and audit committee investigation are now complete.  It also reported Q3 revenue of $1.34 billion, up +31% from a year ago. 

Walmart (WMT) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after boosting its 2026 net sales forecast at constant currencies to +4.8% to +5.1% from a previous forecast of +3.75% to 4.75%. 

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) is up more than +4% after the FDA approved the company’s EYLEA HD, an injectable drug to treat patients with macular edema following retinal vein occlusion. 

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd (ZIM) is up more than +3% after reporting Q3 revenue of $1.78 billion, above the consensus of $1.77 billion. 

Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ) is up more than +3% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $110. 

Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) is up more than +2% after Raymond James double-upgraded the stock to strong buy from market perform with a price target of $198.

Bath & Body Works Inc. (BBWI) is down more than -24% after reporting Q3 net sales of $1.59 billion, below the consensus of $1.63 billion, and cutting its full-year EPS estimate to $2.83 from a previous estimate of $3.28-$3.53, well below the consensus of $3.44. 

Jacobs Solutions (J) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 revenue of $3.15 billion, below the consensus of $3.16 billion.

Datadog (DDOG) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after analysts said Palo Alto Networks’ purchase of Chronosphere is a competitive risk for the company. 

Abbot Laboratories (ABT) is down more than -1%  after buying Exact Sciences for $21 billion, or $105 per share.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is down more than -1% after announcing it had acquired Chronosphere Inc. for $3.35 billion. 

Earnings Reports(11/20/2025)

Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI), Copart Inc (CPRT), Elastic NV (ESTC), Gap Inc/The (GAP), Intuit Inc (INTU), Jacobs Solutions Inc (J), Post Holdings Inc (POST), Ross Stores Inc (ROST), UGI Corp (UGI), Veeva Systems Inc (VEEV), Walmart Inc (WMT).