Stocks Supported by Government Reopening Optimism and Chip Stock Strength

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.31%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.77%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.21%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.22%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.18%.

US stock indexes are mostly higher today, with the S&P 500 posting a 1-week high and the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new all-time high. Stocks are climbing in anticipation that the US government shutdown could end as soon as today, when the House is expected to vote on the continuing resolution (CR) that the Senate already passed on Monday.  If approved, the bill goes to President Trump, who said he will sign it into law.

Strength in semiconductor stocks is also giving the broader market a boost today, led by a +7% jump in Advanced Micro Devices after it projected accelerating sales growth over the next five years.  Also, GlobalFoundries is up more than +5% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings.  However, the weakness in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks is weighing on the Nasdaq 100.

US MBA mortgage applications rose +0.6% in the week ended November 7, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +5.8% and the refinancing sub-index down -3.4%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +3 bp to 6.34% from 6.31% in the prior week.

On Sunday, a group of eight Senate Democrats broke with their party to vote with Republicans to advance a bill to reopen the government.  The bill would provide full-year funding for some departments, fund other agencies through January 30, and provide pay for furloughed government workers.  The bill will also resume withheld federal payments to states and localities and recall agency employees who were laid off during the shutdown.

The markets are discounting a 65% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.

Q3 corporate earnings season is nearly over, as 456 of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 82% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a new record high and is up +1.33%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.07%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.43%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are down -4 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -3.1 bp to 4.085% as the cash Treasury market reopens after being closed for Tuesday's Veterans Day holiday.  T-notes are under pressure today amid strength in stocks, as anticipation that the US government will shortly reopen curbs safe-haven demand for government debt securities.  Also, supply pressures are undercutting T-note prices, as the Treasury will auction $42 billion of 10-year T-notes later today as part of this week's $125 billion quarterly refunding package of T-note and T-bond sales. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.2 bp to 2.670%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +3.9 bp to 4.426%.

ECB Executive Board member Schnabel said interest rates are "absolutely" in a good place as there's positive momentum in the Eurozone economy and inflation risks are tilted a little bit to the upside.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

Chip stocks are climbing today, boosting the broader market, led by a +7% jump in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) after it projected accelerating sales growth over the next five years.  Also, GlobalFoundries (GFS) is up more than +5% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of 41 cents, better than the consensus of 38 cents. In addition, Microchip Technology (MCHP) and Analog Devices (ADI) are up more than +2%.  Finally, Qualcomm (QCOM), Marvell Technology (MRVL), KLA Corp (KLAC), ON Semiconductor Corp (ON), Lam Research (LRCX), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +1%.

Weakness in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks is a drag on the overall market.  Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), and Meta Platforms (META) are down more than -1%.  Also, Tesla (TSLA) is down -0.85%, Nvidia (NVDA) is down -0.49%, Amazon.com (AMZN) is down -0.40%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is down -0.38%. 

On Holding (ONON) is up more than +20% after boosting its full-year adjusted Ebitda margin to above 18% from a previous forecast of 17% to 17.5%, stronger than the consensus of 17.5%. 

Bill Holdings Inc. (BILL) is up more than +14% as the company is under pressure from activist investor Starboard Value LP to explore options to boost value in the stock, including a potential sale. 

Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN) is up more than +10% after it said it was considering a potential sale after receiving takeover interest. 

Oklo Inc (OKLO) is up more than +6% after analysts said they see the company's US Department of Energy Nuclear Safety Design Agreement approval accelerating the licensing process. 

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is up more than +3% after Moody's Ratings upgraded the company's long-tern corporate family rating to Ba1 from Ba2.

Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) is up more than +2% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $80. 

AutoNation (AN) is up more than +1% after Barclays initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of overweight with a price target of $250. 

Earnings Reports(11/12/2025)

Circle Internet Group Inc (CRCL), Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), Flutter Entertainment PLC (FLUT), GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc (GFS), Loar Holdings Inc (LOAR), On Holding AG (ONON), Tetra Tech Inc (TTEK), TransDigm Group Inc (TDG).