US-Iran Peace Optimism Lifts Stocks

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.36%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.391%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.63%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.37%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.67%.

Stock indexes are mostly higher today, with the S&P 500 posting a 2-month high and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 2.5-month high.  Optimism around a potential peace deal in the Middle East is supporting stocks.  The AP reported today that the US and Iran reached an "in-principle agreement" to extend the ceasefire to allow for more diplomacy.  President Trump on Tuesday said peace talks with Iran could restart “over the next two days,” and extending a ceasefire that expires next week may not be necessary as the war is “close to over.” 

The US military began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and President Trump threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance.  Iran said it would target all ports in and close to the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened.

Today’s US economic news is mixed for stocks.  The Apr Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions rose +11.2 to a 5-month high of 11.0, stronger than expectations of 0.0. Also, the Mar import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Conversely, the Apr NAHB housing market index fell -4 to a 7-month low of 34, weaker than expectations of 37.

US MBA mortgage applications rose +1.8% in the week ended April 10, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -1.0% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +5.1%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -9 bp to 6.42% from 6.51% in the prior week.

Comments today from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were hawkish and negative for stocks, as she said we're still persistently missing the inflation mandate and that her baseline is the Fed is on hold for a “good while.”

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) are up more than +1% today as the US presses on with its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.  On Monday, the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the strait that call at Iranian ports or are headed there.  The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Iran has been able to export crude oil during the war, exporting about 1.7 million bpd in March.

Earnings season began this week, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down by -0.59%.  China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 4-week high and closed up +0.01%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 climbed to a 1.5-month high and closed up +0.44%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -4 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.4 bp at 4.272%.  T-note prices are under pressure today amid higher WTI crude oil prices, which are raising inflation expectations.  T-notes remained lower after the Apr Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions rose more than expected to a 5-month high, and after Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed is on hold for a “good while.”  Losses in T-notes are limited after the Apr NAHB housing market index fell more than expected to a 7-month low.

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.9 bp to 3.033%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +1.2 bp to 4.792%.

Eurozone Feb industrial production rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

Swaps are discounting a 21% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks are climbing today, rebounding from their recent selloff.  Datadog (DDOG) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Microsoft (MSFT) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, ServiceNow (NOW) and Atlassian (TEAM) are up more than +5%, and Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +4%.  In addition, Autodesk (ADSK) and Intuit (INTU) are up more than +3%, and Workday (WDAY), Adobe (ADBE), and Salesforce (CRM) are up more than +2%. 

Cybersecurity stocks are moving higher today, led by a +5% increase in Cloudflare (NET) after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $222, saying it is an “AI-winner to own.”  Also, Okta (OKTA) is up more than +4%, and Zscaler (ZS) is up more than +3%.  In addition, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) is up more than +1%, and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is up +0.37%. 

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are under pressure today.  Sandisk (SNDK) is down more than -5% and ASML Holding NV (ASML) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Lam Research (LRCX) are down more than -3%.  In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT) is down more than -2%, and Western Digital (WDC), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -2%. 

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after the SEC gave the go-ahead for sweeping changes to a restriction on day-trading activity by small investors. 

Snap Inc (SNAP) is up more than +7% after laying off 16% of its global workforce in an attempt to reduce costs and achieve profitability. 

Morgan Stanley (MS) is up more than +5% after reporting a Q1 equities trading revenue of $5.15 billion, better than the consensus of $4.78 billion. 

Gitlab (GTLB) is up more than +4% after announcing a collaboration with Google Cloud to bring agentic DevSecOps to enterprise teams using Vertex AI.

Broadcom (AVGO) is up more than +3% after expanding its partnership with Meta Platforms to deploy AI infrastructure.

Stellantis NV (STLA) is up more than +1% after reporting Q1 global shipments rose +12% y/y, led by a surge in North American deliveries. 

Micron Technology (MU) is down more than -3% after an SEC filing showed EVP Sadana sold $10.1 million of shares last Friday.

Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) is down more than -1% after Citigroup reinstated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of sell and a price target of $10. 

Earnings Reports(4/15/2026)

Bank of America Corp (BAC), First Horizon Corp (FHN), JB Hunt Transport Services Inc (JBHT), M&T Bank Corp (MTB), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC), Progressive Corp/The (PGR).