Stocks Settle Higher in Hopes for an Agreement to End the Iran War

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +1.02%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.63%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.06%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.98%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +1.06%.

Stock indexes erased early losses on Monday and rallied, with the S&P 500 posting a 5-week high and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 1.5-month high. Oracle jumped by more than +12% on Monday, leading a rally in software stocks that sparked short covering in the broader market.  Stocks extended their gains on Monday, while crude oil prices fell from their best level after President Trump said Iran still wanted to make a deal and reached out to the US about peace negotiations.

Stocks initially moved lower on Monday after crude oil prices jumped when President Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the deadlocked peace talks over the weekend between the US and Iran.  President Trump said the US began a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance.  Iran said it would target all ports in and close to the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened.

Monday’s US economic news was bearish for stocks after Mar existing home sales fell -3.6% m/m to a 9-month low of 3.98 million, weaker than expectations of 4.05 million.

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) remain volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses amid news headlines about Iran.  The price of crude rose more than +2% on Monday, although well below early highs, as the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that call at Iranian ports or were headed there.  The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Iran has been able to export crude during the war, as it exported about 1.7 million bpd in March.

Earnings season begins this week as money center banks report, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around 3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Monday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by -0.36%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.06%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.74%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Monday closed up by +2.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -2.0 bp to 4.297%.  T-notes recovered from early losses on Monday and settled higher after US Mar existing home sales fell more than expected to a 9-month low, a dovish factor for Fed policy.  Short covering also emerged in T-notes on Monday after crude oil prices fell sharply from early highs, following President Trump's statement that Iranian officials were seeking an agreement on terms to end the war.  

T-notes initially moved lower on Monday after a surge in WTI crude oil prices pushed inflation expectations higher.  The 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 3-week high of 2.405% on Monday.  

European government bond yields moved higher on Monday.  The 10-year German bund yield rose +3.4 bp to 3.092%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +3.4 bp to 4.869%.

Swaps are discounting a 42% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks rallied on Monday, led by a +12% jump in Oracle (ORCL) to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after it said its new utilities industry suite offerings help utilities cut costs with AI. Also, Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) closed up more than +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and ServiceNow (NOW) and Atlassian (TEAM) closed up more than +7%.  In addition, Workday (WDAY) and Adobe (ADBE) closed up by more than +6%, and Intuit (INTU) closed up more than +5%.  Finally, Salesforce (CRM) closed up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.

Chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks moved higher on Monday and gave a boost to the overall market.  ARM Holdings (ARM) closed up more than +5%, and Intel (INTC) closed up more than +4%.  Also, Microchip Technology (MCHP), Qualcomm (QCOM), Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) closed up more than +2%.

Utility stocks retreated on Monday, giving back some of last week’s gains.  Edison International (EIX) and PG&E (PCG) closed down more than -4%.  Also, NextEra Energy (NEE), Sempra (SRE), and Xcel Energy (XEL) closed down more than -2%. 

Revolution Medicines (RVMD) closed up more than +40% after its treatment for an aggressive form of pancreatic cancer boosted patients’ survival in a late-stage trial.

Leggett & Platt (LEG) closed up more than +12% after Somnigroup agreed to buy the company for about $2.5 billion.

Sandisk (SNDK) closed up more than +11% after Nasdaq announced the stock will replace Atlassian in the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index, before the market opens on Monday, April 20.

Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) closed up more than +7% after saying a mid-late stage trial of its experimental combination therapy for a type of eye cancer had met its main goal. 

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed up more than +3% after President Trump said the company has “proven to have great war-fighting capabilities and equipment.” 

ON Semiconductor Corp (ON) closed up more than +3% after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $85.

Fastenal (FAST) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q1 operating income of $447.6 million, below the consensus of $449.3 million. 

Conagra Brands (CAG) closed down more than -4% after it said it is replacing CEO Sean Connolly with John Brase at the end of next month.

Best Buy (BBY) closed down more than -2% after Goldman Sachs double-downgraded the stock to sell from buy with a price target of $59. 

Goldman Sachs (GS) closed down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q1 FICC sales and trading revenue of $4.01 billion, weaker than the consensus of $4.87 billion. 

Earnings Reports(4/14/2026)

Albertsons Cos Inc (ACI), Blackrock Inc (BLK), CarMax Inc (KMX), Citigroup Inc (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC).