Stocks Rise Amid Iran Ceasefire Hopes

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.27%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.19%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.41%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.37%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.54%.

Stock indexes are pushing higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting 1.5-week highs.  Hopes for a potential ceasefire in the war in Iran are lifting stock prices today.  Axios reported that the US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.  On Sunday, President Trump extended his previous 10-day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz by 20 hours until Tuesday evening and threatened to unleash "all hell" on Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened to all shipping traffic by Tuesday.   However, Mr. Trump also said the US was in "deep negotiations" with Iran and "there is a good chance to make a deal, but if they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there."  However, the chances of a ceasefire appear doubtful after a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said, “No rational person” would accept a ceasefire proposal.

Today’s US economic news was negative for stocks.  The US Mar ISM services index fell -2.1 to 54.0, weaker than expectations of 54.9.  The Mar ISM services prices paid subindex rose +7.7 to a 3.5-year high of 70.7, stronger than expectations of 67.0.

Stocks have carryover support from last Friday’s US economic news, which showed strength in the labor market.  March nonfarm payrolls rose by +178,000, stronger than expectations of +65,000 and the largest increase in 15 months.  Also, the March unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 4.3%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 4.4%.  The markets were closed last Friday for the Good Friday holiday.

Crude oil prices (CLK26) remain volatile, with today's trading fluctuating between gains and losses amid news headlines about Iran.  Iran rejects a ceasefire and wants a permanent end to the war.  US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets continued over the weekend, while Kuwait reported fires at some of its refining facilities after Iranian drone and missile attacks.  Also, the UAE reported a petrochemical plant at Ruwais and the Habshan gas facility, the UAE's largest natural gas processing facility, halted production following Iranian attacks.  The New York Times, citing US intelligence reports, said Iranian personnel have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by US and Israeli bombs and returning them to operations hours after attacks.  The International Energy Agency warned that even if the war were to end within a few weeks, it would still take time for normal flows through Hormuz to resume, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and is facing lengthy repairs.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Most overseas stock markets are closed for holidays.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is closed for the Easter Monday holiday.  China's Shanghai Composite is closed for the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.55%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down by -1.4 bp to 4.327%.  Geopolitical risks are boosting safe-haven demand for T-notes ahead of President Trump’s Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Also, today’s weaker-than-expected Mar ISM services report is supportive for T-notes.

Gains in T-notes are limited today amid a rebound in stock prices, which has reduced safe-haven demand for government debt.  T-notes are also weighed down today by some negative carryover from last Friday’s stronger-than-expected US Mar payroll report. In addition, an increase in inflation expectations is bearish for T-notes as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high of 2.381% today.

European government bonds are not trading today, with markets in Europe closed for the Easter Monday holiday. 

Swaps are discounting a 50% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing today to support gains in the broader market.  Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Also, Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +4%, and Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +3%.  In addition, Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +2%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Analog Devices (ADI), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +1%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +3% at a 1-week high.  Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +6%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +5%.  Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +3%, Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +2%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up +0.85%.

Solena Therapeutics (SLNO) is up more than +32% after the Financial Times reported that Neurocrine is in advanced talks to acquire the company. 

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is up more than +7% after receiving a new $71 million order for 800G single-mode data center transceivers from a hyperscale customer.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) is up more than +7% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $85. 

Olin Corp (OLN) is up more than +2% after Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $35.

Amkor Technology (AMKR) is up more than +1% after Melius Research upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $60.

LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) is down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $68. 

Dow Inc. (DOW) is down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $35. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is down more than -2% after Mizuho Securities cut its price target on the stock to $25 from $33.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is down more than -1% after Melius Research LLC downgraded the stock to sell from hold with a price target of $70.

Westlake (WLK) is down more than -1% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

Earnings Reports(4/6/2026)

ECB Bancorp Inc/MD (ECBK), Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC), Immersion Corp (IMMR), RxSight Inc (RXST).