Stocks Rebound Off Lows Despite Hot U.S. Consumer Prices

What you need to know…

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) started this morning is down -1.10% but now has rallied significantly and is currently up +0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +1%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.6%. 

On the open, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials fell to 23-month lows and the Nasdaq 100 fell to a 2-year low. Stocks tumbled after U.S. Sep consumer prices rose more than expected.  The U.S. Sep core CPI rose +6.6%, the fastest increase in 40 years, bolstering expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 bp at the Nov 1-2 FOMC meeting. However, the equity markets have seen an impressively rally 2 hours into the trading day.

Walgreens Boots Alliance is up more than +5% today after reporting Q4 sales of $32.45 billion, above the consensus of $32.28 billion, and Biogen is higher after being upgraded by Stifel to buy from hold.

U.S. Sep CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +8.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +8.1% y/y.  Sep CPI ex-food & energy rose +0.6% m/m and +6.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +6.5% y/y with the +6.6% y/y gain the fastest pace of increase in 40 years.

U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims rose +9,000 to a 6-week high of 228,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 225,000.

Today’s stock movers…

Technology stocks are under pressure today after the 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 14-yer high.  Atlassian Corp (TEAM) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Zscaler (ZS) and Datadog (DDOG) are down more than -5%.  In addition, Tesla (TSLA), Amazon.com (AMZN), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD), and Lam Research (LRCX) are down more than -3%.  

Progressive Corp (PGR) is down more than -8% today after reporting its Q3 combined ratio of 99.2%, above expectations of 96.4%, which will eat into company profits. 

ServiceNow (NOW) is down more than -6% today after UBS cut its price target on the stock to $465 from $515. 

U.S.-listed Chinese stocks are under pressure today after new Covid cases in Shanghai jumped to a 3-month high, bolstering concerns the government will roll out more pandemic lockdowns and restrictions that curb economic activity.  Baidu (BIDU) is down more than -5%.  Also, JD.com (JD) and Pinduoduo (PDD) are down more than +4%.  In addition, NetEase (NTES) and Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) are down more than -3%. 

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) is up more than +7% today to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 revenue of $1.07 billion, better than the consensus of $1.06 billion and reporting Q3 domestic store comparable sales growth of +2.0%, stronger than the consensus of +1.1%.

Biogen (BIIB) is up more than +2% today to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Stifel upgraded the stock to buy from hold.

Walgreens Boot Alliance (WBA) is up more than +2% today to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q4 sales of $32.45 billion, above the consensus of $32.28 billion, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $4.45-$4.65, the midpoint above the consensus of $4.51.

Comcast Corp (CMCSA) is up nearly +2% today after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral.

Across the markets…

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ22) today are down sharply by -1-10/32 points, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +14.2 bp at 4.038%. Dec T-note prices this morning plummeted to a nearly 15-year nearest-futures low, and the 10-year T-note yield soared to a 14-year high of 4.075%.   T-notes sank today, and yields surged after U.S. Sep consumer prices rose more than expected, cementing expectations of another 75 bp rate hike by the Fed at the next FOMC meeting early next month.  Supply pressures are also weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $18 billion 30-year T-bonds later today as part of this week’s $90 billion auctions of T-note and T-bonds.  In addition, an increase in inflation expectations is bearish for T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate today rose to a 2-1.2 week high of 2.413%.

The dollar index (DXY00) this morning is up by +0.24% at a 2-week high.  The dollar rose after today’s economic news that showed U.S. core CPI rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, which boosted expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates by another 75 bp at the Nov 1-2 FOMC meeting.  Also, today’s selloff in stocks gas increased liquidity demand for the dollar.

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is down by -0.23% and fell to a 2-week low. A stronger dollar today is weighing in the euro.  Losses in the euro were limited by hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Wunsch who said the ECB’s deposit rate might eventually have to top 3% to get record inflation under control.

ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel said the ECB should enact another "robust" interest rate increase at this month's policy meeting to ensure price expectations don't become unmoored.

ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said the ECB's deposit rate, currently 0.75%, will "most probably" need to exceed 2% and may eventually have to top 3% to get record inflation under control.

USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up +0.23% and surged to a 32-year high. The yen sank today on central bank divergence after BOJ Governor Kuroda vowed to maintain monetary easing to support Japan’s economy.  The yen recovered from its worst level after Japan Sep producer prices rose more than expected and after Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said that Japan would take "bold action" against speculative moves in the currency market.

Japan Sep PPI rose +0.7% m/m and +9.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +8.9% y/y.

Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said that Japan would take "bold action" if necessary against speculative moves in the foreign exchange market.

December gold (GCZ2) is down -23.8 (-1.42%), and December silver (SIZ22) is down -0.268 (-1.42%).  Precious metals this morning are moderately lower, with gold and silver falling to 2-week lows.  A rally in the dollar index today to a 2-week high is undercutting metals prices.  Also, a jump in T-note yields weighs on gold prices after the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 14-year high.  In addition, the outlook for the Fed to boost rates by 75 bp at its November FOMC meeting is bearish for metals prices after U.S. Sep CPI rose more than expected.  Gold prices continue to be undercut by fund liquidation as long positions in gold ETF’s dropped to a new 2-1/4 year low Wednesday. 

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