Stocks Rebound as Software Stocks Recover

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.64%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.47%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.20%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.50%.

Stock indexes are moving higher today, recovering some of Monday’s sharp losses.  A rebound in software companies today from Monday’s rout is lifting the broader market. Stocks tumbled on Monday amid US trade uncertainty and concerns about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, after Citrini Research published a report outlining the potential risks it could pose to various segments of the global economy. 

President Trump’s new 10% global tariffs went into effect today after the Supreme Court struck down his global “reciprocal” tariffs last Friday. Mr. Trump subsequently threatened to raise the global tariff rate to 15%, and an administration official said the White House is working on a formal order to implement that higher tariff, but the timeline for implementing it has not been finalized.  Mr. Trump is applying the 10% baseline levy under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the president to impose the charge for 150 days without congressional approval. 

Geopolitical risks are a negative for stocks.  US-Iran nuclear talks are scheduled to resume on Thursday in Geneva, and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he saw a “good chance” of a diplomatic solution to the standoff over his country’s nuclear program. Last Friday, President Trump said that he’s considering a limited military strike on Iran to ramp up pressure on the country to strike a deal over its nuclear program, and that he thought 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the “maximum” he would allow for negotiations to continue.

The US Dec S&P composite-20 home price index rose +0.47% m/m and +1.38% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.30% m/m and +1.30% y/y.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said, "I remain optimistic that there can be more rate cuts this year, but that hinges on seeing actual progress on inflation that shows we are on a path back to 2%."

The market’s focus this week will be on corporate earnings results and economic news.  Later today, the Conference Board’s Feb consumer confidence index is expected to climb +2.5 to 87.0.  Tuesday evening, President Trump delivers his State of the Union address.  On Wednesday, Nvidia releases its earnings results after the close.  On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to climb by +10,000 to 216,000.  On Friday, the Feb MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slip -1.8 to 52.2. 

Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more than 80% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 429 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 3% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.01%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.87%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.87%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down -4 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.0 bp to 4.040%.  T-notes are slightly lower today as a recovery in stocks has reduced some safe-haven demand for T-notes.  Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $211 billion of T-notes and floating rate notes this week, beginning with today’s $69 billion auction of 2-year T-notes.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 2.75-month low of 2.696% and is down -0.7 bp to 2.704%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 14.25-month low of 4.291% and is down -0.8 bp to 4.306%.

Eurozone Jan new car registrations fell -3.9% y/y to 800,000, the largest decline in seven months.

Swaps are discounting a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks are rebounding today after Monday’s selloff.  Salesforce (CRM), Service Now (NOW), Atlassian (TEAM), and Adobe (ADBE) are up more than +4%. Also, Intuit (INTU) is up more than +3%, and Datadog (DDOG), Oracle (ORCL), and Autodesk (ADSK) are up more than +2%. 

Palvella Therapeutics (PVLA) is up more than +30% after stating a late-stage trial of its experimental therapy for lymphatic malformations met its main goal.

Keysight Technologies (KEYS) is up more than +18% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.17, stronger than the consensus of $1.99, and forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.27 to $2.33, well above the consensus of $1.91. 

Henry Schein (HSIC) is up more than +7% after reporting Q4 net sales of $3.44 billion, better than the consensus of $3.35 billion.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Meta Platforms said it will deploy data center gear based on processors from AMD in a deal worth “double-digit billion” dollars per gigawatt. 

Home Depot (HD) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q4 comparable sales unexpectedly rose +0.4%, better than the consensus of a decline of -0.36%. 

BWX Technologies (BWXT) is up more than +3% after reporting Q4 revenue of $885.8 million, better than the consensus of $837.5 million, and forecasting full-year revenue of $3.75 billion, above the consensus of $3.68 billion.

Qualcomm (QCOM) is up more than +2% after Loop Capital Markets upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $185. 

Genuine Parts Co (GPC) is up more than +2% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to strong buy from market perform with a price target of $145. 

Ziff Davis (ZD) is down more than -14% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.56, weaker than the consensus of $2.70.

Paymentus Holdings (PAY) is down more than -3% after forecasting 2026 revenue of $1.39 billion to $1.41 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.44 billion.

Whirlpool (WHR) is down more than -8% after announcing a concurrent separate underwritten public offerings of shares of common stock and depositary shares, each representing a 1/20^th interest in a share of newly issued Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred stock. 

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is down more than -7% after forecasting Q1 revenue of $600 million to $625 million, weaker than the consensus of $653.9 million.

Planet Fitness (PLNT) is down more than -7% after forecasting 2026 adjusted Ebitda of $607 million, below the consensus of $621.9 million.

Cable One (CABO) is down more than -7% after BNP Paribas downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $80. 

Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) is down more than -4% after reporting Q4 operating income of $250.9 million, weaker than the consensus of $253.4 million.

Oneok (OKE) is down more than -4% after reporting Q4 adjusted Ebitda of $2.15 billion, below the consensus of $2.16 billion.

Option Care Health (OPCH) is down more than -3% after forecasting full-year revenue of $5.8 billion to $6.0 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $5.95 billion.

Earnings Reports(2/24/2026)

American Tower Corp (AMT), Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON), Constellation Energy Corp (CEG), CoStar Group Inc (CSGP), EOG Resources Inc (EOG), Expeditors International of Washington Inc  (EXPD), Fidelity National Information (FIS), First Solar Inc (FSLR), GoDaddy Inc (GDDY), Henry Schein Inc (HSIC), Home Depot Inc/The (HD), HP Inc (HPQ), Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP), MercadoLibre Inc (MELI), Mosaic Co/The (MOS), NRG Energy Inc (NRG), Realty Income Corp (O), Workday Inc (WDAY).