Stocks See Support Ahead of Heavy Earnings Week and FOMC Meeting

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.51%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.57%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.50%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.57%.

Stocks are seeing support today from lower T-note yields and the stronger-than-expected US durable goods orders report, which suggested a resilient US economy. 

However, stocks are being undercut by President Trump’s new threat of 100% tariffs on US imports from Canada, the possibility of a US government shutdown over ICE funding, lingering concerns about Greenland, and travel and grid disruptions from the massive storm that just crossed the US.  There is also political uncertainty about the Fed, as the FOMC is expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting this week, potentially drawing new threats from Mr. Trump for a refusal to cut interest rates further. 

Stocks are being undercut today by increased trade uncertainty after President Trump on Saturday threatened 100% tariffs on US imports from Canada if Canada signs a trade agreement with China.  Canada is looking for other trade partners due to President Trump’s propensity for tariffs. 

The risk of another partial government shutdown is also weighing on stocks. Senate Democrats threatened to block a government funding deal over Department of Homeland Security/ICE funding after the ICE shooting of an ICU nurse in Minnesota on Saturday.  There could be a partial government shutdown when the current stopgap funding measure expires this Friday.

The dollar index today is down -0.7% and hit a 4-month low amid speculation that the US might coordinate intervention with Japan to boost the yen, which would dovetail with Mr. Trump’s apparent view that a weak dollar is good for the US as a stimulus to US exports.  US authorities reportedly contacted market participants last Friday to check dollar/yen prices, a possible precursor to intervention.  The dollar is also lower as Mr. Trump’s new threat of 100% tariffs against Canada may encourage more foreign investors to pull capital from the US. 

The weak dollar and general turmoil in the US are pushing precious metals to new record highs again today, boosting mining stocks.

US Nov durable goods orders rose +5.3% m/m, which was stronger than market expectations of +4.0% and more than reversed Oct’s revised -2.1% decline. Nov durable goods orders ex-transportation rose +0.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3%.  Nov capital goods orders ex defense and aircraft, a proxy for capital goods spending, rose +0.7% m/m, stronger than market expectations of +0.3%.

The Chicago Fed’s Nov National Activity Index fell -0.04, which was a smaller drop than expectations of -0.20.

The Dallas Fed’s Jan manufacturing activity index fell -1.2, which was a smaller drop than expectations for an -8.5 point drop.

Q4 earnings season is in full swing, with 102 of the S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 78% of the 64 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting the odds at 3% for a -25 bp rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday (Jan 27-28).

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.22%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed -0.09%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down by -1.79%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) are up +6 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.4 bp to 4.211%.  T-note prices are seeing support from today’s weakness in stocks and -0.2 bp decline in the 10-year inflation expectations rate to 2.311%.  T-note prices are higher despite today’s slightly stronger-than-expected US durable goods report. 

European government bond yields are lower.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -3.9 bp to 2.868%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -2.1 bp at 4.491%.

Swaps are discounting a 0% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven are mostly trading higher today, led by a gain of more than +2% in Apple (AAPL), and gains of more than +1% in Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Alphabet (GOOGL).  However, Tesla (TSLA) is down by more than -2%. 

Mining stocks are higher due to new record highs today in gold and silver.  Anglogold Ashanti (AU) is up more than +5%, Hecla (HL) is up more than +3%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) is up more than +2%.

Allied Gold (AAUC) is up more than +4% after the news that Zijin Gold International will acquire the company.

CoreWeave (CRWV) is up more than +8% after Nvidia invested another $2 billion in the company.

USA Rare Earth Inc (USAR) is up more than +10% today on reports that the US government will take a stake in the company to boost US access to rare earth metals and minerals.  The reports have boosted other rare earth companies, such as Niocorp Developments Ltd (NB), Critical Minerals Corp (CRML), and MP Materials Corp (MP).

Cisco Systems (CSCO) is up more than +3% after Evercore ISI upgraded the stock to outperform

from inline.

Cognizant Technology (CTSH) is up more than +1% on an upgrade by Deutsche Bank to buy from

hold.

Revolution Medicines (RVMD) is down more than -16% after a WSJ report that Merck ended talks to acquire the company.

Earnings Reports(1/26/2026)

AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Crane Co (CR), Graco Inc (GGG), Nucor Corp (NUE), Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD), W R Berkley Corp (WRB), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL).