Stocks Supported by Easing Geopolitical Tensions and Solid US Economic News

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.56%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.72%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.59%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.52%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.59%.

Stock indexes are extending Wednesday’s relief rally today as President Trump's pivot on Greenland continued.  The rally gained momentum after NATO’s chief provided additional details, saying the breakthrough didn’t involve Greenland’s sovereignty.  Strength in chip makers, AI-infrastructure stocks, and the Magnificent Seven technology stocks are leading the broader market higher.

Stocks held their gains today on solid US economic news.  Weekly initial unemployment claims rose by 1,000 to 200,000, beating expectations of 209,000.  Also, Q3 GDP was revised upward by 0.1 to 4.4% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of no change at 4.3%.  In addition, Nov personal spending rose +0.5% m/m, right on expectations, while Nov personal income rose +0.3% m/m, weaker than the +0.4% m/m expected. Finally, the Nov core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y, right on expectations.

Natural-gas prices (NGG26) continued this week’s parabolic rally today, with prices up more than +12% at a 3-year high, which is boosting nat-gas producing stocks.  Prices have surged more than 60% this week as an Arctic cold front is set to bring cold temperatures to much of the eastern US, boosting heating demand and potentially leading to freeze-offs in wells and disrupting US nat-gas production.  

On Wednesday, President Trump said he would refrain from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations that oppose his effort to acquire Greenland.  NATO Secretary General Rutte said a breakthrough over Greenland was secured without discussing the territory’s sovereignty with President Trump, instead focusing on the broader issue of security in the Arctic region. 

The market’s focus this week will be on economic news and any fresh tariff developments, the next Fed Chair, and Greenland.  On Friday, the Jan S&P US manufacturing PMI is expected to be up by +0.2 to 52.0.  Also, the final University of Michigan Jan US consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at 54.0. 

Q4 earnings season begins in earnest this week and, so far, has been a positive factor for stocks, with 81% of the 38 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The Supreme Court on Tuesday did not issue a ruling on challenges to President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.  The court did not say when it will issue its next opinions, meaning it will likely be at least another month before ruling on the tariffs, as the court begins a four-week recess. 

The markets are discounting the odds to 5% for a -25 bp rate cut at the FOMC’s next meeting on January 27-28.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.21%.  China’s Shanghai Composite rose to a 1-week high and closed up by +0.14%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up by +1.73%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down by -4 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up by +2.8 bp to 4.271%.  Today's strength in stocks has curbed safe-haven demand for government debt securities and is weighing on T-note prices.  Also, rising inflation expectations are bearish for T-notes as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 3.25-month high of 2.368% today. T-notes remained lower after weekly jobless claims rose less than expected and after Q3 GDP was revised higher. Losses I T-notes are limited after the Nov core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose as expected.

T-notes are also under pressure after President Trump last Friday expressed reluctance to name Keven Hassett as the next Fed Chair and said he would prefer to keep him as National Economic Council director.  The markets saw Hassett as the most dovish candidate and the top contender for the Fed Chair nomination, so nominating someone like Kevin Warsh, a known hawk and the second-most-likely Fed Chair candidate, would be bearish for T-note prices.

European government bond yields are mixed today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -0.1 bp to 2.881%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 2-week high of 4.495% and is up +2.7 bp to 4.485%.

The Eurozone Jan consumer confidence index rose +0.8 to an 11-month high of -12.4, stronger than expectations of -13.0.

Swaps are discounting a 0% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.

US Stock Movers

Chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks are rallying today, boosting the overall market.  ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +5%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +2%.  Also, ASML Holding NV (ASML), Analog Devices (ADI), Microchip Technology (MCHP), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up more than +1%. 

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are moving higher today.  Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +3%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) are up more than +1%.  Also, Nvidia (NVDA) is up +0.98%, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up +0.76%, Apple (AAPL) is up +0.67%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is up +0.62%. 

Datadog (DDOG) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Stifel upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $160.

Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) is up by more than +6% after BTIG upgraded the stock to buy from neutral, with a price target of $110. 

Venture Global (VG) is up more than +6% after winning a dispute with Repsol SA involving the sale of liquified natural gas shipments from its export plant in Louisiana.

Northern Trust (NTRS) is up more than +5% after reporting Q4 net interest income of $654.3 million, above the consensus of $604.5 million.

Karman Holdings (KRMN) is up more than +4% after Raymond James reiterated its strong buy rating on the stock and raised its price target to $130 from $100.

Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) is up more than +2% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $30.   

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 net sales of $11.46 billion, weaker than the consensus of $11.80 billion. 

McCormick & Co (MKC) is down more than -6% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $3.05 to $3.13, below the consensus of $3.23.

Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) is down more than -4% after reporting a Q4 return on average assets of 0.93%, below the consensus of 1.13%. 

Mobileye (MBLY) is down more than -2% after forecasting full-year revenue of $1.90 billion to $1.98 billion, weaker than the consensus of $2.0 billion. 

Qiagen NV (QGEN) is down more than -2% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

Earnings Reports(1/22/2026)

Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Capital One Financial Corp (COF), CSX Corp (CSX), Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX), General Electric Co (GE), Huntington Bancshares Inc/OH (HBAN), Intel Corp (INTC), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), McCormick & Co Inc/MD (MKC), Northern Trust Corp (NTRS), Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG).