Stocks Pressured by US and European Standoff Over Greenland

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -1.23%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -1.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.36%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -1.16%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -1.20%.

Stock indexes are sharply lower today, with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100 falling to 2-week lows. Rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe over control of Greenland have led to a risk-off mood in asset markets.  President Trump’s push to take over Greenland is reviving fears of trade confrontations between the US and its European allies, with little sign of de-escalation. Overnight, President Trump threatened steep tariffs on French champagne after French President Macron ruled out joining a US-led peace initiative.  President Trump over the weekend announced a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries starting February 1, rising to 25% in June, unless there’s a deal for the “purchase of Greenland.”

Rising bond yields are also weighing on stocks today.  The 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 4.75-month high of 4.31% today, driven by concern about an independent Fed and negative carryover from soaring Japanese government bond yields.  Japan’s 10-year JGB bond yield rose to a 27-year high today of 2.359% on Japanese fiscal concerns after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi promised a temporary sales tax cut on food if she wins a fresh mandate for her new coalition.

The strength of gold and silver mining companies today is a positive factor for stocks, as the Greenland crisis prompted safe-haven buying of precious metals and pushed their prices to all-time highs.  Also, concerns that Japan's expansionary fiscal policies will lead to soaring deficits are boosting demand for precious metals as a store of value. 

US natural gas-producing stocks are soaring today as the price of nat-gas (NGG26) surged more than +22% to a 3-week high. 

The market’s focus this week will be on economic news and any fresh developments on tariffs, the next Fed Chair, and Greenland.  On Wednesday, Dec pending home sales are expected to fall -0.5% m/m.  On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to climb by +12,000 to 210,000.  Also, Q3 GDP is expected to be unrevised at +4.3% (q/q annualized).  In addition, Nov personal spending is expected to be up +0.5% m/m, and Nov personal income is expected to rise +0.4% m/m.  Finally, the Nov core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) is expected to rise by +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y.  On Friday, the Jan S&P US manufacturing PMI is expected to be up by +0.2 to 52.0.  Also, the final University of Michigan Jan US consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at 54.0. 

Q4 earnings season begins in earnest this week and, so far, has been a positive factor for stocks, with 88% of the 33 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The Supreme Court today did not issue a ruling on challenges to President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.  The court did not say when it will issue its next opinions, meaning it will likely be at least another month before ruling on the tariffs, as the court begins a four-week recess. 

The markets are discounting the odds to 5% for a -25 bp rate cut at the FOMC’s next meeting on January 27-28.

Overseas stock markets are lower today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2-week low and is down by -0.73%.  China’s Shanghai Composite dropped to a 1.5-week low and closed down by -0.01%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down by -1.11%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down by -6 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up by +4.6 bp to 4.269%.  Mar T-notes tumbled to a 5-month low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 4.75-month high of 4.307%.  Rising inflation expectations are bearish for T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate climbed to a 3.25-month high of 2.342% today.  Also, negative carryover from a surge in global bond yields, triggered by today's jump in the 10-year Japan bond yield to a 27-year high, of 2.359%, is weighing on T-notes.  Markets are concerned that if JGB yields continue to rise, Japanese investors, the largest holders of US debt securities, will sell their US assets and move capital back to Japan.

T-notes are also under pressure after President Trump last Friday expressed reluctance to name Keven Hassett as the next Fed Chair and said he would prefer to keep him as National Economic Council director.  The markets saw Hassett as the most dovish candidate and the top contender for the Fed Chair nomination, so nominating someone like Kevin Warsh, a known hawk and the second-most-likely Fed Chair candidate, would be bearish for T-note prices.

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 2-week high of 2.894% and is up +2.0 bp to 2.860%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 2-week high of 4.495% and is up +3.8 bp to 4.452%.

The German Jan ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +13.8 to a 4.5-year high of 59.6, stronger than expectations of 50.0.

German Dec PPI fell -2.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of -2.4% y/y and the largest drop in 20 months.

Swaps are discounting a 0% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are sliding today and weighing on the overall market.  Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) are down more than -2%.  Also, Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL) are down more than -1%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are sliding today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -2% at a 1-week low. Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Mara Holdings (MARA) is down more than -5%, and  Riot Platforms (RIOT), Coinbase Global (COIN), and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are down by more than -3%.

Gold and silver mining stocks are climbing today as gold and silver prices climb to new all-time highs.  Newmont Mining (NEM) is up more than +3%, and Barrick Mining (B) is up more than +2%.  Also, Hecla Mining (HL), Coeur Mining (CDE), and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) are up more than +1%. 

US natural gas-producing stocks are soaring today as the price of nat-gas surged more than +25% to a 3-week high.  Coterra Energy (CTRA) is up by more than +3%.  Also, Antero Resources (AR) and Range Resources (RRC) are up more than +2%.  In addition, CNX Resources (CNX) and EQT Corp (EQT) are up more than +1%.

NetApp (NTAP) is down more than -8% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $89.

3M Co. (MMM) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $8.50-$8.70, the midpoint below the consensus of $8.64. 

Fastenal (FAST) is down more than -4% after reporting Q4 net sales of $2.03 billion, below the consensus of $2.04 billion.

Rockwell Automation (ROK) is down more than -4% after Oppenheimer downgraded the stock to perform from outperform. 

AppLovin (APP) is down by more than -1% after a negative research report from CapitalWatch, which raised concerns about systemic compliance risks and suspicions of financial crimes. 

RAPT Therapeutics (RAPT) is up more than +62% after GSK Plc agreed to buy the company for about $2.2 billion, or $58 a share. 

Intel (INTC) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Seaport Global Securities upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $65.

Albemarle (ALB) is up by more than +4% after HSBC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $200.

Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +2% after Stifel raised its price target on the stock to $360 from $300.

Brinker International (EAT) is up more than +2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $200. 

Earnings Reports(1/20/2026)

3M Co (MMM), DR Horton Inc (DHI), Fastenal Co (FAST), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR), KeyCorp (KEY), Netflix Inc (NFLX), United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL), US Bancorp (USB).