Stock Indexes Higher on Strength in Tech Stocks

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.59%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.51%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.58%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.49%.

Stock indexes are trading higher today on support from tech stocks and strength in some of the Magnificent Seven, with Tesla (TSLA) up more than +2% and Nvidia (NVDA) up more than +1%.  Sentiment towards AI stocks has improved after Micron’s (MU) positive results last week, which also supported chip stocks.  Also, precious metals miners are showing strength today with gold and silver posting new record highs.

Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks.  According to data from Citadel Securities, since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, climbing 1.3% on average.

In a bullish factor, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said today, “If we don’t adjust policy down, then I think we do run risks” of a recession. However, he also said he doesn’t foresee a recession.

The markets are discounting a 20% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.21%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.69% for the fourth consecutive daily gain.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.81%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down -4 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.6 bp at 4.163%.  T-note prices are being undercut by supply overhang.  The Treasury will sell $69 billion of 2-year T-notes today, $70 billion of 5-year T-notes and $28 billion of 2-year floating rate notes on Tuesday, and $44 billion of 7-year T-notes on Wednesday.

The Treasury yield curve has recently steepened.  Short-end yields are being pushed lower by the FOMC’s announcement after its last meeting that it would begin purchasing up to $40 billion of short-term T-bills a month to boost liquidity in the financial system. Meanwhile, longer-term Treasury yields have seen upward pressure from concerns about inflation and the Fed’s independence. 

European government bond yields are trading higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield today rose to a 9-month high and is up +0.6 bp at 2.902%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +1.6 bp at 4.540%.

Swaps are discounting a 0% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks are mixed today.  Notable gainers include a rally of more than +2% in Tesla (TSLA) and a rally of more than +1% in Nvidia (NVDA).

Chip stocks are moving higher today on continued support after last Friday’s rallies of +7% in Micron Technology (MU) and +6% in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).  Micron (MU) is a chip leader again today, with a gain of nearly +2%.  Marvel Technology (MRVL) is up more than +1% today after Citi issued a positive catalyst watch for the stock ahead of January’s CES conference.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are trading higher, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up about +2%. 

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +5%.  Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +2%.  Holdings (MARA) and Strategy (MSTR) are up more than +1%.

Precious metals miners are seeing support today with new record highs in silver and gold prices.  Newmont (NEM) is up more than +3%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) is up more than +4%.

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is up about +3% after Larry Ellison agreed to provide a $40.4 billion personal guarantee for Paramount Skydance’s (PSKY) bid to buy WBD, putting pressure on Netflix (NFLX) to sweeten its bid.

Rocket Lab (RKLB) is up more than +10% after announcing last Friday that it won its largest contract yet to build 18 satellites.

Honeywell (HON) is down more than -1% after management adjusted its guidance to reflect the reclassification of its spun-off advanced materials business as discontinued operations.

Janus Henderson (JHG) is up more than +3% after news that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst agreed to buy Janus for about $7.4 billion.

Earnings Reports(12/22/2025)

Barnes & Noble Education Inc (BNED) and Rezolve AI PLC (RZLV).