Stocks Fall and Bond Yields Rise on Concern About a Protracted Iran War

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.74%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.87%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.94%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.90%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -1.10%.

Stock index futures gave up an overnight advance and turned lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 falling to 6.5-month lows.  Stocks are sliding today as crude oil prices are up more than +2% and global bond yields are soaring amid the risk of a protracted Iran war.  Iran and Israel exchanged missile fire today, and Iran targeted several Gulf states as the war entered its 27th day.  Saudi Arabia said it intercepted two ballistic missiles headed for Riyadh, and Kuwait said drones damaged the port of Shuwaikh, while another port called Mubarek Al Kabeer was also targeted.  Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is considering sending as many as 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East.

Global bond yields are climbing today, weighing on stocks amid concern that a protracted war in Iran will keep energy prices high and fuel inflation.  The 10-year T-note yield rose to an 8.25-month high today at 4.48%, the 10-year German Bund yield climbed to a 14.75-year high of 3.13%, and the 10-year Japan JGB bond yield rose to a 27-year high of 2.39%. 

Market sentiment also took a hit today when China launched a pair of investigations into US trade practices, retaliating against similar probes by the Trump administration earlier this month, when the US said it was investigating China under Section 301 of the Trade Act for alleged excess manufacturing capacity.  China's Ministry of Commerce said its probes target US practices that disrupt global supply chains, covering restrictions on Chinese goods entering US markets, export controls on advanced technology, and limits on bilateral investment in critical sectors.  The other action focuses on US barriers to trade in green products, including restrictions on the export of Chinese renewable energy goods to the US and limits on cooperation in green technology.

Stock index futures initially moved higher in overnight trade after President Trump late Thursday extended his deadline for Iran to strike a deal with the US by 10 days to April 6, saying talks with the country were going "very well."

There are concerns that the Iran war could escalate throughout the Middle East.  Saudi Arabia agreed to give the US military access to King Fahd Air Base, and the UAE closed an Iranian-owned hospital and club.  Iran’s Middle Eastern neighbors are growing frustrated with Iran, which has responded to US and Israeli attacks by hitting targets in several nearby nations.  

Crude oil prices (CLK26) remain high despite attempts to boost global supplies.  The IEA on March 11 released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.  Iran is also seeking to control ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, asking vessels to provide lists of crew and cargo, along with voyage details and bills of lading if they want to travel through the waterway.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

The International Energy Agency said Monday that more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains once the war in Iran ends. 

The markets are discounting a 6% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -1.22%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.63%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.43%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -10 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +5.2 bp to 4.464%.  June T-notes tumbled to a 10-month nearest-futures low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to an 8.25-month high of 4.482%.  T-notes are under pressure today after a +2% jump in WTI crude oil prices, which has raised inflation expectations.  There are also concerns that damage to energy infrastructure from the Iran war will keep energy prices higher for longer and force the Fed to tighten monetary policy.

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield jumped to a 14.75-year high of 3.129% and is up +3.5 bp to 3.109%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +9.5 bp to 5.069%.

ECB Feb 1-year CPI expectations unexpectedly eased to a 16-month low of 2.5% from 2.6% in Jan, weaker than expectations of an increase to 2.8%.  ECB Feb 3-year CPI expectations unexpectedly eased to 2.5% from 2.6% in Jan, weaker than expectations of an increase to 2.7%.

ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said, "an ECB rate hike in April is not out of the question" if there is solid evidence that the Iran war will be lasting and lead to higher inflation.

UK Feb retail sales ex-auto fuel fell -0.4% m/m, a smaller decline than expectations of -1.0% m/m.

Swaps are discounting a 65% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Cybersecurity stocks are retreating today after a report from Fortune said Anthropic is testing a new AI model that “poses significant cybersecurity risks.”  Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) is down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.  Also, Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Zscaler (ZS), and Okta (OKTA) are down more than -6%.  In addition, Fortinet (FTNT) is down more than -4%, and Cloudflare (NET) is down more than -3%.

Most of the Magnificent Seven technology stocks are lower today, weighing on the overall market.  Amazon.com (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) are down more than -2%.  Also, Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) are down more than -1%.  In addition, Nvidia (NVDA) is down -0.43%,  while Apple (AAPL) bucked the trend and is up +0.57%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are sliding today with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -3% to a 2.5-week low.  Coinbase Global (COIN) is down more than -5%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down more than -4%.  Also, Strategy (MSTR) and MARA Holdings (MARA) are down more than -3%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down more than -2%

Energy producers and energy service providers are moving higher today, with WTI crude oil prices up more than +2%.  APA Corp (APA) is up more than +3%, and Diamondback Energy (FANG), Chevron (CVX), Devon Energy (DVN), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and ConocoPhillips (COP) are up more than +1% 

Two Harbors Investment Co (TWO) is down more than -2% after Compass Point Research & Trading LLC downgraded the stock to neutral from buy. 

Wix.com Ltd (WIX) is down more than -1% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral.

Argan Inc. (AGX) is up more than +35% after reporting Q4 diluted adjusted EPS of $3.47, well above the consensus of $1.98. 

Unity Software (U) is up more than +9% after reporting preliminary Q1 earnings that showed significant strength in Vector, the company’s AI-driven advertising unit. 

Entergy (ETR) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after signing a pact with Meta Platforms to supply 5.2 gigawatts of electricity to one of its data centers. 

Venture Global (VG) is up more than +1% after settling pending arbitration with Edison Investment Research concerning the Calcasieu Pass project.

Legence Corp (LGN) is up more than +1% after reporting Q4 revenue of $738 million, well above the consensus of $621 million, and forecasting full-year revenue of $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion, stronger than the consensus of $3.48 billion.

Primo Brands (PRMB) is up more than +1% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $25.

Earnings Reports(3/27/2026)

Carnival Corp (CCL).