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5-Year T-Note Jun '19 (ZFM19)

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5-Year T-Note Futures Market News and Commentary

10-Year T-Notes Close Slightly Higher on a New Low in Inflation Expectations

Sep 10-year T-notes on Friday closed +3 ticks higher, and the 10-year T-note yield fell -1.2 bp to 2.082%. T-note prices on Friday rallied on a weak U.S. consumer sentiment report, safe-haven demand due to US/Iran tensions, and a new 2-3/4 year low in inflation expectations. T-note prices were also boosted by weak global stock markets with the S&P 500 on Friday closing -0.16%, the Euro Stoxx 50 index closing -0.33%, and the Shanghai Composite closing -0.99%. The market is now discounting the odds of a -25 bp rate cut at 25% for next week's FOMC meeting (June 18-19) and at 84% for the following FOMC meeting on July 30-31. T-note prices on Friday were boosted by US/Iran tensions after the U.S. military released a video that it said showed an Iranian patrol boat removing an unexploded mine from one of the attacked tankers. President Trump on Friday blamed on Iran for Thursday's tanker attacks and vowed that Iran will not be allowed to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil shipments. T-note prices received a boost from weaker inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate on Friday fell sharply to a new 2-3/4 year low of 1.639% and closed -4.1 at 1.641%. T-note prices on Friday were able to shake off the bearish impact of the solid U.S. retail sales and industrial production reports. The May retail sales report was strong at +0.5% m/m for both the headline and ex-autos reports, which was close to expectations of +0.6% headline and +0.4% ex-autos. The U.S. May industrial production report of +0.4% m/m was stronger than expectations of +0.2%. Friday's preliminary-June U.S. consumer sentiment report fell by -2.1 points, although that was line with market expectations. Big Picture T-Note Market Factors: Bullish factors for T-note prices include (1) market expectations of an 80% chance of a 25 bp rate cut at the July FOMC meeting, (2) low U.S. inflation with the U.S. core PCE deflator at only +1.6% y/y, well below the Fed's +2.0% inflation target, (3) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 2-3/4 year low of 1.64%, (4) weaker U.S. and global economic growth due to trade tensions, and (5) safe-haven demand due to trade tensions, Brexit risks, and geopolitical risks from Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) the Fed's balance sheet draw-down program that will last through September, and (2) some continued simulative effects from the massive 2018 U.S. tax cut.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
5-Year Treasury-Note
Contract Size
$100,000
Tick Size
One quarter of 1/32 of a point ($7.8125 per contract) rounded up to the nearest cent per contract; par is on the basis of 100 points
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$726/660
First Notice Date
05/31/19
Expiration Date
06/28/19 (12 days)

Seasonal Chart

5-Year T-Note Jun '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jun Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 11, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
3,263,620 (-120,683)
3,222,220 (-26,183)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
819,482 (+8,700)
881,212 (-93,654)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
100,637 (+21,022)
506,960 (-26,210)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
2,292,105 (-151,363)
809,832 (-28,133)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
447,612 (-23,795)
1,626,527 (-83,836)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
397,845 (+8,011)
315,210 (-15,800)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
115-240 +1.51%
on 05/21/19
117-277 -0.31%
on 06/07/19
+1-150 (+1.27%)
since 05/17/19
3-Month
114-282 +2.28%
on 03/19/19
117-277 -0.31%
on 06/07/19
+2-140 (+2.12%)
since 03/15/19

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 72% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 117-302
1st Resistance Point 117-242
Last Price 117-160
1st Support Level 117-135
2nd Support Level 117-087

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52-Week High 117-277
Last Price 117-160
Fibonacci 61.8% 115-172
Fibonacci 50% 114-265
Fibonacci 38.2% 114-035
52-Week Low 111-250

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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