Dow Jumps to New Highs as Fed Cut, Oracle Miss Fuel Shift from Tech to Value Stocks

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down up +0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +1.25%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.52%.  

Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 1-week low and the Dow Jones Industrials climbing to a new all-time high. The broader market is under pressure today after Oracle's earnings, viewed as a bellwether of the AI investment boom, came in worse than expected, fueling concerns about the vast spending tied to artificial intelligence.  Shares of Oracle are down more than -12% to lead AI stocks lower after it reported Q2 cloud sales that missed estimates and raised its 2026 capital spending outlook by $15 billion to $50 billion.  Oracle’s results reignited worries about tech valuations and whether the capital outlays on AI infrastructure will pay off.

Stocks have underlying support from a jump in weekly jobless claims to a 3-month high, which knocked bond yields lower.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -4 bp to 4.11%.  Also, a +3% rally in Visa shares today is boosting the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +44,000 to a 3-month high of 236,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 220,000.

The US Sep trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to -$52.8 billion versus expectations of a widening to -$63.1 billion and the smallest deficit in 5.25 years.

The markets are discounting a 24% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting.

Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 495 of the 500 S&P companies have released results.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a 4-weekhigh and is up +1.07%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.70%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.90%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are up by +13 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -3.1 bp to 4.116%.  T-notes are climbing today as weakness in stocks has prompted some safe-haven buying of government debt.  T-notes also have carryover support from Wednesday when the FOMC cut its 2025 and 2026 US core PCE price estimates, and Fed Chair Powell said that he doesn't think a rate hike is anybody's base case for the Fed's next policy move.  T-notes held their gains after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a 3-month high, a dovish factor for Fed policy.  Supply pressures may limit further upside in T-notes ahead of the Treasury’s $22 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds later today.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down by -0.6 bp to 2.845%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down by -3.4 bp to 4.472%.

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

Oracle (ORCL) is down more than -12% to lead the S&P 500 losers, and AI-infrastructure stocks are lower today after reporting Q2 adjusted revenue of $16.06 billion, below the consensus of $16.21 billion, and raising its 2026 capital spending outlook by $15 billion to $50 billion.  CoreWeave (CRWV) is down more than -7%, and Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is down more than -4% on the news. 

Chip makers are sliding today, weighing on the broader market.  ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are down more than -4%.  Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Nvidia (NVDA), and Broadcom (AVGO) are down more than -3%.  In addition, Intel (INTC), Applied Materials (AMAT), GlobalFoundries (GFS), KLA Corp (KLAC), Micron Technology (MU), and Lam Research (LRCX) are down more than -2%.  

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are under pressure today with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -2%.  Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Riot Platforms (RIOT) and MARA Holdings (MARA) are down more than -5%, Coinbase Global (COIN) is down more than -4%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down more than -3%. 

Fertilizer stocks are moving higher today after Ukraine said its drones attacked two fertilizer plants in western Russia.  Mosaic (MOS) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500.  Also, Intrepid Potash (IPI) is up more than +4%, and CF Industries Holdings (CF) and FMC Corp (FMC) are up more than +3%. 

Oxford Industries (OXM) is down more than -22% after cutting its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to $2.20-$2.40 from a previous estimate of $2.80-$3.20, well below the consensus of $2.91. 

Lovesac Co (LOVE) is down more than -13% after cutting its 2026 net sales forecast to $685 million-$705 million from a previous forecast of $710 million-$740 million, weaker than the consensus of $713.7 million. 

Stellantis NV (STLA) is down more than -3% after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral. 

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is down more than -1% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy. 

Gemini Space Station Inc (GEMI) is up more than +17% after the company’s application for a derivatives exchange was approved by the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission. 

Ciena Corp (CIEN) is up more than +6% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.35 billion, better than the consensus of $1.29 billion. 

Visa (V) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $382.

Unity Software (U) is up more than +2% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $59. 

JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) is up more than +2% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $227. 

West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) is up more than +1% after Nephron Research LLC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $367. 

Earnings Reports(12/11/2025)

Broadcom Inc (AVGO), Ciena Corp (CIEN), Costco Wholesale Corp (COST), Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU), RH (RH).