S&P Futures Tread Water Ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending down -0.02% this morning as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the red. Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks retreated, with Tesla (TSLA) falling over -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Nvidia (NVDA) dropping more than -1%. Also, gold mining stocks slumped after gold prices plunged amid profit-taking, with Newmont (NEM) sliding over -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Freeport-McMoran (FCX) falling nearly -3%. In addition, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) plummeted over -42% after setrusumab, the company’s treatment candidate for the rare genetic bone disease osteogenesis imperfecta, failed to meet its primary endpoint in two late-stage trials. On the bullish side, DigitalBridge Group (DBRG) surged more than +9% after SoftBank Group agreed to buy the company in a deal valued at $4 billion.

Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. pending home sales climbed +3.3% m/m in November, stronger than expectations of +1.0% m/m.

“Given this week’s light economic calendar, internal momentum could be the main market storyline,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “If stocks are going to close out another year of double-digit gains on a high note, they’ll likely need tech to do much of the heavy lifting.”

Today, market watchers will pay close attention to the publication of the minutes from the Fed’s December 9-10 meeting. The minutes will be scrutinized to assess policymakers’ appetite for additional rate cuts. The FOMC lowered its benchmark rate this month for the third time in a row, though officials’ median forecasts pointed to only one more cut in 2026. However, individual projections differed widely, with seven officials anticipating no cuts and four expecting two quarter-point cuts next year. Some policymakers are worried about a soft labor market, while others are concerned about persistent inflation.

“We expect the minutes to the December meeting to note ongoing disagreement among FOMC participants about the appropriate policy path over the near term,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note this week.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures currently price in at least two rate cuts in 2026, with the first move unlikely before April or June.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the October figure to ease to +1.1% y/y from +1.4% y/y in September.

The U.S. Chicago PMI will also be released today. Economists forecast the December figure at 39.8, compared to the previous value of 36.3.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.119%, up +0.05%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.42% this morning, hitting a 6-week high on the last full trading day of the year. Mining and bank stocks led the gains on Tuesday. Preliminary data from the statistics agency INE released on Tuesday showed that Spain’s annual inflation rate cooled in December but remained well above the euro-area average, reinforcing the case for the European Central Bank to hold interest rates steady. Meanwhile, Tuesday marks the final trading session of the year for several European markets, including Frankfurt, Milan, Zurich, and the Nordic exchanges, while others, including London and Paris, will operate shortened sessions ahead of the New Year’s Day holiday. The STOXX 50 index is set to end 2025 up roughly 18%, underpinned by lower interest rates, Germany’s fiscal spending push, and investor rotation away from expensive U.S. technology stocks. In corporate news, Fresnillo Plc (FRES.LN) rose over +4% after Citi raised its price target on the stock and reiterated a Buy rating.

Spain’s CPI (preliminary) data was released today.

The Spanish December CPI rose +2.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.8% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed flat, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.37%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed flat today, snapping a nine-day winning streak as investors locked in profits after the index’s best run in over a year. Semiconductor and other AI-related stocks outperformed on Tuesday. At the same time, property and insurance stocks slumped. The benchmark index has climbed over 18% this year and is on course for its strongest annual performance since 2019. Meanwhile, China’s onshore yuan strengthened past the key 7-per-dollar level on Tuesday for the first time since 2023, as exporters hurried to sell U.S. dollars ahead of year-end. In other news, state media Xinhua reported on Tuesday that China will work to stabilize grain and edible oil production, upgrade crop varieties, and improve quality, following a meeting of the annual Central Rural Work Conference held from December 29th to 30th. In corporate news, SMIC rose over +4% in Hong Kong after announcing plans to acquire the remaining 49% stake in its unit SMNC for 40.6 billion yuan ($5.79 billion). Investors now await China’s PMI data for December, scheduled for release on Wednesday. The data is expected to signal a continued contraction in manufacturing activity, underscoring concerns over weak demand.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today, weighed down by metals and brokerage stocks on the final trading day of 2025. Japanese financial markets will be closed for the remainder of the week for the New Year holidays. The Nikkei rose about 26% this year, marking a third straight annual gain and its strongest performance since 2023. Japanese equities were supported by the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s push on corporate governance and enthusiasm surrounding AI investment. Notably, AI’s relentless demand for data storage has powered Japanese memory chipmaker Kioxia Holdings to world-leading stock gains of more than 500% this year. “The first half of the year was weighed down by global economic instability, including rising prices, labor shortages, and U.S. tariffs,” Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said at a ceremony at the TSE after the closing bell. “But in the latter half, the resilience of Japanese companies, together with policy support, propelled the Nikkei to a remarkable turnaround, rising past the 50,000 mark for the first time in history,” Takaichi added. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.42% to 23.77.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Tesla (TSLA) rose about +1% in pre-market trading after Baird advised investors to own the stock into 2026 catalysts, including a broader robotaxi rollout, new product launches, and incremental updates on Optimus commercialization, as well as non-Tesla developments such as a potential SpaceX initial public offering.

Gold mining stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading after gold prices regained some footing, with Newmont (NEM) and Freeport-McMoran (FCX) rising more than +1%.

Terra Innovatum Global N.V. (NKLR) climbed over +9% in pre-market trading after H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and $25 price target.

BHP Group (BHP) rose more than +1% in pre-market trading after Argus upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a $68 price target.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - December 30th

Immersion Corp (IMMR), RCI Hospitality (RICK), Brookmount Explorations Inc (BMXI).