Stocks Mixed as a Plunge in Oracle Weighs on Tech Stocks

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down by -0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.59%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.89%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are down -0.34%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.92%.

Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 1-week low and the Dow Jones Industrials climbing to a 4-week high. The broader market is under pressure today after Oracle's earnings, viewed as a bellwether of the AI investment boom, came in worse than expected, fueling concerns about the vast spending tied to artificial intelligence.  Shares of Oracle are down more than -14% to lead AI stocks lower after it reported Q2 cloud sales that missed estimates and raised its 2026 capital spending outlook by $15 billion to $50 billion.  Oracle’s results reignited worries about tech valuations and whether the capital outlays on AI infrastructure will pay off.

Stocks have underlying support from a jump in weekly jobless claims to a 3-month high, which knocked bond yields lower.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -4 bp to 4.11%. 

US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +44,000 to a 3-month high of 236,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 220,000.

The US Sep trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to -$52.8 billion versus expectations of a widening to -$63.1 billion and the smallest deficit in 5.25 years.

The markets are discounting a 22% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting.

Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 495 of the 500 S&P companies have released results.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.52%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.70%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.90%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are up by +14 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -4.1 bp to 4.106%.  T-notes are climbing today as weakness in stocks has prompted some safe-haven buying of government debt.  T-notes also have carryover support from Wednesday when the FOMC cut its 2025 and 2026 US core PCE price estimates, and Fed Chair Powell said that he doesn't think a rate hike is anybody's base case for the Fed's next policy move.  T-notes held their gains after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a 3-month high, a dovish factor for Fed policy.  Supply pressures may limit further upside in T-notes ahead of the Treasury’s $22 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds later today.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down by -0.2 bp to 2.849%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down by -2.6 bp to 4.480%.

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

Oracle (ORCL) is down more than -13% to lead the S&P 500 losers, and AI-infrastructure stocks are lower today after reporting Q2 adjusted revenue of $16.06 billion, below the consensus of $16.21 billion, and raising its 2026 capital spending outlook by $15 billion to $50 billion.  CoreWeave (CRWV) is down more than -7%, and Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is down more than -6% on the news. 

Chip makers are sliding today, weighing on the broader market.  ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is down more than -3%.  Also, Nvidia (NVDA) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Broadcom (AVGO), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Lam Research (LRCX) are down more than -2%.  In addition, GlobalFoundries (GFS), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Micron Technology (MU), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are down more than -1%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are under pressure today with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -2%.  Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), Riot Platforms (RIOT), Strategy (MSTR), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Coinbase Global (COIN) are down more than -2%. 

Oxford Industries (OXM) is down more than -15% after cutting its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to $2.20-$2.40 from a previous estimate of $2.80-$3.20, well below the consensus of $2.91. 

Lovesac Co (LOVE) is down more than -8% after cutting its 2026 net sales forecast to $685 million-$705 million from a previous forecast of $710 million-$740 million, weaker than the consensus of $713.7 million. 

Stellantis NV (STLA) is down more than -3% after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral. 

Coherent (COHR) is down more than -2% after Bain Capital unloaded $987.3 million of its Coherent holdings via an unregistered block trade. 

Gemini Space Station Inc (GEMI) is up more than +6% after the company’s application for a derivatives exchange was approved by the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission. 

Ciena Corp (CIEN) is up more than +4% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.35 billion, better than the consensus of $1.29 billion. 

Unity Software (U) is up more than +4% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $59. 

Adobe (ADBE) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after forecasting Q1 adjusted EPS of $5.85 to $5.90, stronger than the consensus of $5.66.

West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) is up more than +1% after Nephron Research LLC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $367. 

JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) is up more than +1% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $227. 

Earnings Reports(12/11/2025)

Broadcom Inc (AVGO), Ciena Corp (CIEN), Costco Wholesale Corp (COST), Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU), RH (RH).