Stocks Rally on US-China Preliminary Trade Agreement

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.84%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.41%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.49%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.87%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +1.51%.

US stocks rallied today after US and Chinese negotiators, who met over the weekend in Malaysia, said they reached a tentative trade agreement to be finalized at Thursday's summit between Presidents Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.   Treasury Secretary Bessent said the agreement means the US threat of a 100% tariff on US imports from China, set to start November 1, is "effectively off the table." Meanwhile, China agreed not to restrict the export of rare earth metals for at least one year and to buy a "substantial" amount of US soybeans.  The two sides also made progress on shipping fees and US demands that China crack down on the export to the US of fentanyl and precursors.  The two sides may also reach an agreement that would allow US consumers to continue to access TikTok. 

Treasury Secretary Bessent said today that the pool of candidates for the next Fed Chair has been narrowed to Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder.  President Trump is expected to announce a decision on a new Fed Chair by year-end to replace current Fed Chair Powell, whose term as the Fed Chairman ends on May 15, 2026.  Mr. Powell's separate term as a Fed Governor runs until January 2028, though he faces pressure from Mr. Trump to step down as a Fed Governor as well, so Mr. Trump can appoint a more dovish Fed governor.

This is a busy week, with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, when it is expected to cut its federal funds rate target by -25 bp. Also, five of the Magnificent Seven companies report earnings this week, with Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft reporting on Wednesday, and  Apple and Amazon.com reporting on Thursday.

There is some carry-over support from last Friday's Sep US CPI report of +3.0% y/y for both the nominal and core figures, which was slightly weaker than expectations for both of +3.1% y/y.

Trade relations with Canada are a negative factor for stocks after President Trump on Saturday said he will impose a new 10% tariff on US imports from Canada as punishment for last week's anti-tariff advertisement released by the provincial government of Ontario.  Mr. Trump initially said that he was only halting US trade negotiations with Canada due to the ad, but he escalated the punishment over the weekend by imposing a new 10% tariff, even though Ontario had agreed to pause the ad campaign. 

Ontario's ad featured former US President Reagan speaking out in a 1987 address in favor of free trade and against tariffs, calling tariffs an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices, and hurts US workers.  Mr. Trump claimed the ad was deceptive and said it was designed to influence the US Supreme Court ahead of oral arguments on November 5 on the legality of Mr. Trump's reciprocal tariffs.  Lower courts have already deemed Mr. Trump's reciprocal tariffs illegal, ruling the tariffs are based on a specious claim of emergency authority.  If the US Supreme Court upholds those rulings, the US government will have to refund the tariffs already collected, and Mr. Trump's power to impose tariffs will be limited to well-founded sections of US trade law.

The US government shutdown continues into its fifth week, weighing on market sentiment and the US economy.  The government shutdown is delaying the release of government reports, including all the recent weekly unemployment claims reports, the September unemployment and payroll report, Aug trade balance, Sep retail sales, Sep PPI, Sep housing starts, Sep industrial production, Sep leading indicators, and others.  Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.

The markets are focused on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 84% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years.  Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from +6.4% in Q2. 

Overseas stock markets today are higher.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.62%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.18%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +2.46%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5)  are down -7 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.3 bp at 4.024%.  T-note prices are trading lower due to the US-Chinese trade agreement, which reduced safe-haven demand for Treasury securities and is positive for the US and Chinese economies.  T-note prices are also being pressured by the rally in US stocks and today's +0.7 bp rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate.

T-notes have support from the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. 

The markets are discounting a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at this week's FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday (Oct 28-29).

European government bond yields are mixed.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.3 bp at 2.629%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -2.0 bp at 4.412%.

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks are all trading higher today, led by a gain of more than +4% in Tesla (TSLA), and gains of more than +2% in Alphabet (GOOG) and Nvidia (NVDA).

Chip stocks are trading higher across the board today, led by a +12.6% gain in Qualcomm (QCOM) on news of a new AI chip and computer line to compete with Nvidia.  Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +5%.  Arm Holdings (ARM), ON Semiconductors (ON), and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +4%.

Crypto stocks are trading higher today, with support from today's gains of more than +3% in Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) and +5% in Ethereum (^ETHUSD).   Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +4% and Coinbase (COIN) is up more than +2%.

Avidity Biosciences (RNA) is up +42% after news that Swiss-based Novartis plans to buy the company in a deal worth $12 billion.  Novartis ADR shares (NVS) are down -1%.

Ohio-based Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) agreed to buy Cadence Bank (CADE) for $7.4 billion in an all-stock deal to expand into the Southeast and South.  Huntington is down more than -2% while Cadence is up more than +4%.

American Water Works (AWK) is down -3% and Essential Utilities (WTRG) is down -0.9% after news that the two companies have finalized AWK's purchase of Essential Utilities for $12 billion in an all-stock deal. 

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is up more than +7% after raising its full-year net sales guidance.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is up more than +3% on news of an agreement with the National Football League and sports merchandiser Fanatics Inc to develop a line of fan apparel.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is up more than 4% after CICC gave the brokerage a new rating of outperform.

Newmont (NEM) is down more than -6% as the company seeks to gain control of Barrick's gold mines in Nevada.

Boeing (BA) is trading slightly higher even though factory workers in St Louis narrowly rejected a new 5-year contract that would have ended a 3-month strike that has disrupted the company's main military manufacturing operations.

Earnings Reports(10/27/2025)

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP), Revvity Inc (RVTY), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Whirlpool Corp (WHR), Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (SSD), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Brixmor Property Group Inc (BRX), Nucor Corp (NUE), NOV Inc (NOV), Hartford Insurance Group Inc/T (HIG), Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF), Crane Co (CR), F5 Inc (FFIV), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR), FTAI Aviation Ltd (FTAI), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC), Welltower Inc (WELL), Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR), Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS), Confluent Inc (CFLT), Olin Corp (OLN), Waste Management Inc (WM), BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI).