Stocks Pressured by Uncertainty of US-Iran Ceasefire Prospects

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.23%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.33%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.18%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.30%.

Stock indexes are under pressure today amid uncertainty about when a US-Iran ceasefire could be reached and allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  Oil prices are down slightly today after President Trump said negotiations with Iran are continuing “at a rapid pace” and he’s optimistic the US can reach an interim peace deal with Iran” over the next week.” 

However, Iran threatened to abandon negotiations with the US on Monday over Israel’s escalation of its attacks in Lebanon. President Trump late Monday reportedly called Israeli President Netanyahu “crazy” and said he put the brakes on Israel’s plan to strike Beirut.  Axios reported that Israel no longer plans to strike Hezbollah targets in Beirut.  Iran has insisted on a ceasefire in Lebanon as part of any ceasefire agreement with the US. 

Weakness in software stocks is weighing on the broader market today. However, ramped-up AI spending continues to support technology stocks.  Hewlett-Packard Enterprise is up more than +24% after giving an outlook for annual sales that topped estimates, citing massive growth in AI-fueled demand for its servers and networking.  Also, Marvell Technology is up more than +23% after Nvidia CEO Huang predicted that the company will be the next to hit a $1 trillion valuation, more than five times its current market capitalization.

Hawkish comments today from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were negative for stocks and bonds, as she said the Fed's benchmark rate "may not be restrictive" and that "if recent data trends continue, it may soon be appropriate for policy to act to address the growing risk of persistently elevated inflation." 

The markets are discounting a 1% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

The generally favorable Q1 earnings season is winding down.  As of today, 84% of the 485 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates.  Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.08%.  China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 1.5-month low and closed up +0.43%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closed down -0.30%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) are up +6 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -1.6 bp to 4.4376%.  T-note prices are climbing today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3-week low of 4.422% as a more than -1% decline in crude oil prices weighed on inflation expectations.  T-notes fell back from their best levels due to hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who said the Fed's benchmark rate "may not be restrictive."

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German Bund yield is down -4.2 bp to 2.962%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -6.6 bp to 4.832%.

Eurozone May CPI rose +3.2% y/y, right on expectations, and the largest increase in more than 2.5 years.  May core CPI rose +2.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.4% y/y and the largest increase in 13 months. 

Swaps are discounting a 96% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11.

US Stock Movers

Intuit (INTU) is down more than -8% to lead software stocks lower and lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, with a price target of $276.  Also, Atlassian Corp (TEAM) is down more than -8%, and ServiceNow (NOW) is down more than -6%.  In addition, Workday (WDAY) is down more than -5%, and  Autodesk (ADSK), Salesforce (CRM), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) are down more than -4%.  Finally, Microsoft (MSFT), Datadog (DDOG), and Adobe Systems (ADBE) are down more than -3%, and Oracle (ORCL) is down more than -1%. 

Microchip Technology (MCHP) is up more than +6% to lead chipmakers higher after saying its data center solutions unit generated $302.7 million in revenue in calendar year 2025, with about $500 million expected for this year.  Also, Broadcom (AVGO) is up more than +5%, and Analog Devices (ADI) is up more than +3%.  In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Lam Research (LRCX), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +2%.

Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX) is down more than -9% after saying its vormatrigine drug did not meet its primary endpoint of percent change in monthly seizure frequency in the Phase 2/3 POWER1 study in adults with focal onset seizures compared to placebo. 

Nubank Holdings (NU) is down more than -7% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform to neutral with a price target of $10. 

Alphabet (GOOGL) is down more than -4% as it raises $80 billion through a package of equity offerings, including an investment deal with Berkshire Hathaway.

Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE) is up more than +33% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of 79 cents, well above the consensus of 54 cents, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $3.35 to $3.45 from an earlier forecast of $2.30 to $2.50. 

Marvel Technology (MRVL) is up more than +20% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Nvidia CEO Huang predicted that the company will be the next to hit a $1 trillion valuation, more than five times its current market capitalization. 

Generac Holdings (GNRC) is up more than +5% after signing a global agreement to supply backup power generators to a leading hyperscaler data center operator. 

Earnings Reports(6/2/2026)

Dollar General Corp (DG), Donaldson Co Inc (DCI), Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW), Gitlab Inc (GTLB), Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA).