Stocks Pressured By Higher Bond Yields and Persian Gulf Strikes

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down -0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.13%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.13%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.16%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.13%.

Stocks are being pressured today by fresh disruptions in the Persian Gulf that raised doubts about President Trump’s comment yesterday evening that the Iran war could end “very soon.”  In addition, the Pentagon said the US military is today conducting its most intensive day of bombing yet.  Stocks are also being undercut by today’s +1.7 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield.

An Iranian drone attack today caused the biggest refinery in the UAE at the Ruwais Industrial Complex to halt operations due to a fire in the complex. Also, Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency reported an explosion today involving a tanker near Abu Dhabi, but no further details were available.

Despite those disruptions, April WTI crude oil futures prices are down -7% today, erasing part of the sharp rally seen in the past 1-1/2 weeks.  Oil prices on Monday spiked to a high of $119.48 after Israel over the weekend bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots.  However, WTI oil prices have since fallen to the $ 85-per-barrel area after President Trump said on Monday that the Iran war is “pretty much” over, and after G-7 finance ministers said on Monday that the G-7 nations stand ready to release oil stockpiles if needed.  At a press conference Monday evening, President Trump was asked when the war would end, and he answered, “I think soon, very soon.” 

G-7 energy ministers are meeting today beginning at 1:45pm local time (8:45 am Eastern) at the International Energy Agency in Paris, with most ministers joining remotely, according to French Finance Minister Roland Lescure.  Mr. Lescure said today, “We are gathering the G-7 energy ministers today here in Paris; we are going through the process but obviously all options are on the table,” including an emergency oil stock release.  He added, “We are ready.”

Iran has shown no signs of backing down, despite the withering air campaign launched by Israel and the US.  Iran's Assembly of Experts over the weekend appointed hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new supreme leader, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  Iran's new leader has close ties to Iran's powerful and entrenched Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  President Trump said he is "not happy" with the choice of the new leader.

US Feb existing home sales rose by +1.7% m/m to 4.09 million, stronger than expectations for a decline to 3.88 million.

Q4 earnings season is nearly over, with more than 95% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 492 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 0% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are higher today, supported by Monday afternoon’s recovery in US stocks.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +2.20%, following Monday’s -0.61% loss.  China's Shanghai Composite today closed up +0.65%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +2.88%, recovering part of Monday’s sharp -5.2% loss.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up +6.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.7 bp at 4.113%.  The T-note yield is trading higher today amid ongoing inflation concerns, with the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate up +1.8 bp to 2.348%. 

European government bond yields are steady to lower.  The 10-year German bund yield is unchanged at 2.859%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -6.8 bp at 4.580%. 

Swaps are discounting a 0% chance of a -25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are mixed today.  Meta Platforms (META)and Tesla (TSLA) are up more than +1%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is down nearly -1%.

Oil stocks are trading mostly lower due to today’s sharp decline in oil prices.  Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is down more than -3%.  Devon Energy (DVN) and ConocoPhillips (COP) are down more than -1%.

Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE) is down about -1% after reporting slightly weaker-than-expected revenue, although other results beat expectations.

AT&T (T) is up +0.6% after saying it will spend more than $250 billion over the next five years to expand its telecom network infrastructure in the US, more than doubling its recent capital investment.

Casey’s General Stores (CASY) is up nearly +2% despite reporting disappointing revenue for fiscal Q3.

Strategy Inc (MSTR) is up +0.2%, and Strive Inc (ASST)  is up +0.6% after B. Riley Securities initiated coverage of the Bitcoin treasury companies with buy ratings.

Earnings Reports(3/10/2026)

Oracle Corp (ORCL).