Stocks Pressured Ahead of Nvidia Earnings and US Economic Data

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.49%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.50%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.46%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are down -0.24%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.16%.

US stock indexes today are seeing downward pressure ahead of key news later this week, including a raft of delayed US economic reports and Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday.  Stocks have some underlying support from a +4% jump in Alphabet after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.9 billion stake in the company. 

The markets are looking ahead to Nvidia’s earnings report after Wednesday’s close for further information on the AI outlook.  Also, earnings from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot this week will provide insight into the health of consumer spending. 

This week’s US economic schedule is very heavy as a deluge of delayed economic reports will be released.  Tuesday brings the ADP weekly employment report, NY Fed’s US business leaders survey, industrial production, Nov NAHB housing index, Aug factory orders, and Aug durable goods orders.  Wednesday brings MBA weekly mortgage applications, Aug trade balance, and the Oct FOMC meeting minutes.  Thursday brings weekly unemployment claims, the Sep unemployment report, the Philadelphia Fed report, Oct existing home sales, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. Friday brings real earnings, the S&P US manufacturing and services PMI reports, the University of Michigan US consumer sentiment, and the Kansas City Fed services activity.  Other delayed US economic reports are also expected to be released in the coming days but have not yet been scheduled.

Today’s economic news was supportive for stocks as the Nov Empire manufacturing general business conditions survey unexpectedly rose +8.0 to a 1-year high of 18.7, stronger than expectations of a decline to 5.8.

The markets are discounting a 41% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.

Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 460 of the 500 S&P companies have released results.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 82% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets are lower today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.75%.  China’s Shanghai Composite fell to a 1.5-week low and closed down -0.46%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 dropped to a 1-week low and closed down -0.10%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are up +3.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.6 bp to 4.133%.  T-notes are slightly higher today on speculation that long-delayed US economic news scheduled for release this week will show weakness in the economy and easing inflation pressures, which could allow the Fed to keep cutting interest rates. T-notes were undercut by news that the Nov Empire manufacturing general business conditions survey unexpectedly rose to a 1-year high, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -1.0 bp to 2.710%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 1-month high of 4.589% and is down -3.1 bp to 4.543%.

The European Commission raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP forecast to +1.3% from a May forecast of +0.9% and kept its 2025 Eurozone inflation forecast unchanged from May at +2.1%.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said financial stability risks “remain elevated in view of uncertainty over geoeconomic trends and the ultimate impact of tariffs in a volatile international environment.”

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

Alphabet (GOOGL) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.9 billion stake in the company.  Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +2%.  However, the other Magnificent Seven stocks are trading lower with losses of more than -2% in Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon.com (AMZN). 

Amazon.com (AMZN) is trading lower after Bloomberg reported that the company is looking to raise $12 billion from its first US bond sales in three years, suggesting an intention to accelerate spending on AI and other areas.

Chip stocks are mixed today.  Micron Technology (MU) was up more than +4% early in the session after Rosenblatt Securities raised its price target on the stock to $300 from $250 but has since given up some of those gains and is now up more than +1%. Applied Materials (AMAT), Arm Holdings (ARM), and GlobalFoundries (GFS) are also up more than +1%.  On the negative side, Qualcomm (QCOM), Marvell Technology (MRVL), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are down more than -2%. 

Crypto stocks are trading lower due to today’s -1.5% decline in Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) to a new 7-month low.  Coinbase (COIN)is down more than -5%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down more than -4%.

Zymeworks (ZYME) is up +30% and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) is up more than +20% after their collaboration on an experimental combination therapy for cancer of the stomach and esophagus showed topline results from a late-stage trial.  

Rubrik (RBRK) is down more than -1% even though Mizuho Securities upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $97. 

Gap (GAP) is down more than -1% even through Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weigh with a price target of $30. 

Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) is up more than +2% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $166.

Aramark (ARMK) is down more than -5% after reporting Q4 revenue of $5.05 billion, weaker than the consensus of $5.17 billion.

Dell Technologies (DELL) is down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after being double-downgraded by Morgan Stanley to underweight from overweight with a price target of $110. 

HP Enterprise (HPE) is down more than -6% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight.

Sealed Air Corp (SEE) is down more than -3% after Stifel downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

HP Inc (HPQ) is down more than -3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $24. 

Earnings Reports(11/17/2025)

Aramark (ARMK), Helmerich & Payne Inc (HP), I3 Verticals Inc (IIIV), J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF), James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX), LifeMD Inc (LFMD), XP Inc (XP).