Stocks Edge Higher on Positive US Labor Market News

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up by +0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up by +0.14%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.11%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +0.10%.

Stock indexes are moving higher today after the Oct JOLTS report showed job openings unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high.  The market remains cautious about the pace of Fed easing beyond Wednesday’s decision, when the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bp. Gains in stocks are also limited as bond yields ticked higher following the hawkish JOLTS report.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +1 bp to 4.18%.

US Oct JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose by +12,000 to a 5-month high of 7.670 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of a decline to 7.117 million.

US Sep leading indicators fell -0.3% m/m, right on expectations.

The markets this week will focus on government reports and the FOMC meeting.  On Wednesday, the Q3 employment cost index is expected to climb by +0.9%.  The results of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting are expected to show a -25 bp cut in the federal funds target range to 3.50%-3.75%.  The markets will also look at the Fed's summary of economic projections and its dot-plot interest rate forecast.  In addition, post-meeting comments from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday about the future direction of interest rates could move the markets.  On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +29,000 to 220,000. 

The markets are discounting a 90% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the conclusion of the 2-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 495 of the 500 S&P companies have released results.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 3.5-week high and is down -0.11%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.37%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.14%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down -4 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.4 bp to 4.178%.  Mar T-note futures gave up an early advance and turned lower today after the Oct JOLTS report showed job openings unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.  Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10-year T-notes later today.  T-notes initially moved higher due to some mild short covering ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting that began today. 

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield fell from an 8.5-month high of 2.879% and is down by -0.6 bp to 2.856%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down by -1.5 bp to 4.513%.

German trade news was weaker than expected after German Oct exports rose +0.1% m/m, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.  Also, Oct imports fell -1.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m.

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +1%.  Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +9% after Citizens Jmp Securities LLC initiated coverage of the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $60.  In addition, MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), Strategy (MSTR), and Coinbase Global (COIN) are up more than +2%. 

Toll Brothers (TOL) is down more than -2% to lead homebuilders lower after forecasting 2026 deliveries of 10,300 to 10,700, below the consensus of 10,843.  Also, Lennar (LEN) and D R Horton (DHI) are down more than -1%, and PulteGroup (PHM) is down -0.20%. 

Ares Management (ARES) is up more than +7% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the company will replace Kellanova in the S&P 500 before trading begins on Thursday, December 11.   

KeyCorp (KEY) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after CEO Gorman said the bank agreed with activist investor HoldCo Asset Management that the stock is undervalued and has excess capital.

CVS Health (CVS) is up more than +4% after raising guidance on its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $6.60-$6.70 from a previous forecast of $6.55-$6.65, the midpoint stronger than the consensus of $6.63. 

Core & Main Inc (CNM) is up more than +3% after reporting Q3 net sales of $2.06 billion, better than the consensus of $2.05 billion. 

Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK) is up more than +2% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $78. 

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is up more than +2% after it said it expects $35 billion in cash flow growth by 2030, an increase of about 17% from what it was projecting a year ago.

Otis Worldwide (OTIS) is up more than +1% after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $105.

SLM Corp (SLM) is down more than -17% after Compass Point Research & Trading LLC double-downgraded the stock to sell from buy with a price target of $23.   

Caleres (CAL) is down more than -9% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of 38 cents, well below the consensus of 85 cents. 

Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) is down more than -7% after forecasting full-year net sales of $8.4 billion to $8.6 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $8.56 billion.   

AutoZone (AZO) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 comparable sales rose +5.50%, weaker than the consensus of +5.93%. 

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) is down more than -4% after reporting Q3 comparable sales rose +3.30%, weaker than the consensus of +3.74%.

Earnings Reports(12/9/2025)

AutoZone Inc (AZO), Campbell's Company/The (CPB), Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY), Core & Main Inc (CNM), Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG), GameStop Corp (GME), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI), SailPoint Inc (SAIL).