U.S. Labor Market Strength and Hawkish Fed Comments Hammer Stocks

What you need to know…

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -1.02%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.99%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.23%.

Stock indexes this morning gave up overnight gains and sold off, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 1-week, low after stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market news bolstered expectations for the Fed to remain aggressive in tightening monetary policy.

 

This morning’s reports showed the Dec ADP employment rose +235,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of +150,000.  Also, weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 3-1/4 month low. The 10-year T-note yield is up +9.5 bp at 3.780%.

Stock losses accelerated, and bond yields moved even higher, on hawkish comments this morning from Kansas City Fed President George and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who both said inflation was still too high and signaled higher interest rates.

Stock indexes initially moved higher in overnight trade on positive carry-over from a rally in China’s Shanghai Composite to a 2-1/2 week high as China took additional steps to reopen its economy.  China announced today that the border between mainland China and Hong Kong would gradually reopen beginning Sunday. 

U.S. Dec ADP employment rose +235,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of +150,000.  Also, Nov ADP was revised upward to +182,000 from the initially reported +127,000.

U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -19,000 to a 3-1/4 month low of 204,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of unchanged at 225,000.

The U.S. Nov trade deficit shrank to a 2-year low of -$61.5 billion from -$77.8 billion in Oct, a smaller deficit than expectations of -$63.0 billion and a positive factor for Q4 GDP.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said inflation is still way too high in the U.S. and the Fed has "much work to do on inflation" despite signs that prices are moderating.

Kansas City Fed President George said she "raised her forecast to over 5%" on her projection for the fed funds rate and said she sees it "staying there for some time until we get signals that inflation is really convincingly starting to fall back toward our 2% goal."

Overseas markets today are mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 index is down  -0.22%. The Shanghai Composite index closed up +0.22%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock index closed down by -1.45%.

Today’s stock movers…

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials as the company acknowledged that the settlement of cases related to the nationwide opioid crisis would cost it $6.5 billion.

Constellation Brands (STZ) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after it reported Q3 comparable EPS of $2.83, weaker than the consensus of $2.88, and cut its full-year comparable EPS estimate to $11.00-$11.20 from a prior estimate of $11.20-$11.60. 

ServiceNow (NOW) is down more than -4% after Piper Sandler cut its price target on the stock to $500 from $550. 

Tesla (TSLA) is down more than -4% after Mizuho Securities cut its price target on the stock t $250 from $285. 

Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after Stifel cut its price target on the stock to $110 from $120.

Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.28 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.15 billion, and raised its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $3.75-$4.00 from a previous estimate of $2.45-$2.85. 

Western Digital Corp (WDC) is up more than +4% after Bloomberg reported the company had restarted merger talks with Japan’s Kioxia. 

T-Mobile U.S. Inc (TMUS) is up more than +2% after reporting Q4 postpaid net customers of 1.82 million, above the consensus of 1.80 million.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) is up more than +2% after Argus Research upgraded the stock to buy from hold.

Conagra Brands (CAG) is up more than +2% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of 81 cents, stronger than the consensus of 66 cents, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $2.60-$270, above the consensus of $2.47.

Charter Communications (CHTR) is up more than +1% after Truist Securities upgraded the stocks to buy from hold.

Across the markets…

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH23) today are down -15 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +9.5 bp at 3.780%.  Mar T-note prices this morning retreated after this morning’s U.S labor market news came in stronger than expected, bolstering the chances that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer.  T-note losses accelerated this morning on hawkish Fed comments.  Kansas City Fed President George said she "raised her forecast to over 5%" on her projection for the fed funds rate.  Also, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the Fed has "much work to do on inflation" despite signs that prices are moderating. 

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.69% and posted a 3-week high. The dollar jumped today after the U.S. labor market showed unexpected strength, which was hawkish for Fed policy and bullish for the dollar.  Also, hawkish Fed comments today from Kansas City Fed President George and Atlanta Fed President Bostic gave the dollar a boost as they both signaled higher interest rates.

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is down by -0.62%.  A jump in the dollar today is undercutting the euro.  Also, today’s Eurozone economic news was weaker than expected, which is dovish for ECB policy and bearish for EUR/USD.  Eurozone Nov producer prices rose less than expected, and German Nov trade data was weaker than expected.

Eurozone Nov PPI rose +27.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +27.5% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 11 months.

German Nov exports unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of no change.  German Nov imports fell -3.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.9% m/m.

USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up by +0.85%.  The yen today tumbled to a 1-week low against the dollar as higher T-note yields undercut the yen.   The yen also had carry-over pressure from Wednesday when the BOJ boosted QE and conducted unscheduled bond-buying for the fourth day.

Today’s Japanese economic news was supportive for the yen after the Japan Dec consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose +1.7 to 30.3, stronger than expectations of a decline to 28.3.

February gold (GCG3) this morning is down -18.8 (-1.01%), and March silver (SIH23) is down -0.504 (-2.10%).  Precious metals prices this morning are moderately lower, with silver falling to a 2-week low. A rally in the dollar index today to a 3-week high is bearish for metals prices.  Also, higher global government bond yields today are negative for gold prices.  In addition, hawkish comments today from Kansas City Fed President George and Atlanta Fed President Bostic undercut metals prices after they both signaled higher interest rates.

• Unusual Options Volume for Coty (COTY) Screams a Long-Term Opportunity
• Markets Today: Stocks Tumble as Bond Yields Jump on U.S. Labor Market Strength
• JP Morgan Bull Put Spread Could Net 11% In 2 Weeks
• Pre-Market Brief: Stocks Mixed After FOMC Minutes Temper Policy Pivot Hopes