US-Iran Peace Hopes Push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to Record Highs

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed up +0.80%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.40%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.79%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +1.41%.

Stock indexes settled mostly higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs.  Optimism around a potential peace deal in the Middle East is supporting stocks. The AP reported on Wednesday that the US and Iran reached an "in-principle agreement" to extend the ceasefire to allow for more diplomacy.  The US and Iran are considering extending their ceasefire, which ends on Tuesday, by another two weeks to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement.  The weakness in industrial stocks on Wednesday, over concerns about US metals tariffs, weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The US military began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and President Trump threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance.  Iran said it would target all ports in and close to the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened.

Wednesday’s US economic news is mixed for stocks.  The Apr Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions rose +11.2 to a 5-month high of 11.0, stronger than expectations of 0.0.  Also, the Mar import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m.  Conversely, the Apr NAHB housing market index fell -4 to a 7-month low of 34, weaker than expectations of 37.

US MBA mortgage applications rose +1.8% in the week ended April 10, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -1.0% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +5.1%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -9 bp to 6.42% from 6.51% in the prior week.

Comments on Wednesday from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were hawkish and negative for stocks, as she said we're still persistently missing the inflation mandate and that her baseline is the Fed is on hold for a “good while.”

The Fed Beige Book stated that economic activity continued to increase at a slight-to-modest pace with moderate price growth overall, but energy and fuel costs rose "sharply" in all 12 Fed districts in the six weeks to April 6.

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) were little changed on Wednesday as the US presses on with its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.  On Monday, the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the strait that call at Iranian ports or are headed there.  The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Iran has been able to export crude oil during the war, exporting about 1.7 million bpd in March.

Earnings season began this week, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Wednesday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.74%.  China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 4-week high and closed up +0.01%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 climbed to a 1.5-month high and closed up +0.44%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Wednesday closed down by -5.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.8 bp to 4.276%.  T-note prices were under pressure on Wednesday as optimism for an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire eased geopolitical risks and sparked a rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, reducing safe-haven demand for T-notes.  T-notes also fell after the Apr Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions rose more than expected to a 5-month high, and after Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed is on hold for a “good while.” In addition, the Fed Beige Book stated that energy and fuel costs rose "sharply" in all 12 Fed districts, a bearish factor for T-notes.  Losses in T-notes were limited after the Apr NAHB housing market index fell more than expected to a 7-month low.

European government bond yields moved higher on Wednesday.  The 10-year German bund yield rose +2.0 bp to 3.043%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +3.4 bp to 4.814%.

Eurozone Feb industrial production rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

Swaps are discounting a 21% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks are climbing today, rebounding from their recent selloff.  Atlassian (TEAM) closed up more than +10% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Datadog (DDOG) closed up more than +9%.  Also, ServiceNow (NOW) closed up more than +7%, and Intuit (INTU) closed up more than +6%.  In addition, Workday (WDAY) closed up more than +5%, and Microsoft (MSFT) closed up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Finally, Oracle (ORCL), Autodesk (ADSK), Adobe (ADBE), and Salesforce (CRM) closed up more than +3%. 

Cybersecurity stocks moved higher on Wednesday, led by a +6% increase in Cloudflare (NET) after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $222, saying it is an “AI-winner to own.”  Also, Zscaler (ZS) closed up more than +6%, and Okta (OKTA) closed up more than +5%.  In addition, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) closed up more than +2%, and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Fortinet (FTNT) closed up more than +1%. 

Industrial stocks retreated on Wednesday over concerns of US metals tariff costs.  Carrier Global (CARR) closed down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500.  Also, Lennox International (LII) and Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) closed down more than -6%, and Ingersoll Rand (IR) and A O Smith (AOS) closed down more than -5%.  In addition, Caterpillar (CAT) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. 

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) closed up more than +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after the SEC gave the go-ahead for sweeping changes to a restriction on day-trading activity by small investors. 

Gitlab (GTLB) closed up more than +8% after announcing a collaboration with Google Cloud to bring agentic DevSecOps to enterprise teams using Vertex AI.

Snap Inc (SNAP) closed up more than +7% after laying off 16% of its global workforce in an attempt to reduce costs and achieve profitability. 

Morgan Stanley (MS) closed up more than +4% after reporting a Q1 equities trading revenue of $5.15 billion, better than the consensus of $4.78 billion. 

Broadcom (AVGO) closed up more than +3% after expanding its partnership with Meta Platforms to deploy AI infrastructure.

Stellantis NV (STLA) closed up more than +1% after reporting Q1 global shipments rose +12% y/y, led by a surge in North American deliveries. 

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) closed down more than -6% after a NY federal jury found that the company illegally monopolized the live events industry and overcharged fans. 

Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -2% after an SEC filing showed EVP Sadana sold $10.1 million of shares last Friday.

Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) closed down more than -1% after Citigroup reinstated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of sell and a price target of $10. 

Earnings Reports(4/16/2026)

Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Alcoa Corp (AA), Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), Charles Schwab Corp/The (SCHW), Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG), FNB Corp/PA (FNB), KeyCorp (KEY), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI), ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN), Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MRSH), Netflix Inc (NFLX), PepsiCo Inc (PEP), Prologis Inc (PLD), Travelers Cos Inc/The (TRV), US Bancorp (USB).