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10-Year T-Note Sep '15 (ZNU15)

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10-Year T-Note Futures Market News and Commentary

10-year T-notes Slip as Trade Optimism Boosts Stocks

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ19) this morning are down -2 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield is down by -1.6 bp to 1.768%. Dec T-notes are slightly weaker this morning on reduced U.S./China trade tensions that have fueled gains in stocks and undercut safe-haven demand for T-notes. U.S./China trade tensions eased today as trade negotiators from the U.S. and China resume meetings in Washington D.C. for a second day today. The negotiations are expected to lay the groundwork for top-level negotiations between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in early October. The markets are hoping for at least an "interim" agreement whereby President Trump agrees to hold off on new tariffs planned for Oct 15 and Dec 15, and a possible roll-back of the Sep 1 tariffs, in return for Chinese ag purchases and commitments on IP protection. Slack producer price pressures in Germany boosted 10-year German bunds today, which is supportive for T-notes, after today's data showed German Aug PPI rose by only +0.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.6% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 2-3/4 years. The 10-year German bund yield dropped to a 1-week low of -0.522% today on the weaker than expected producer prices. Strength in 10-year UK gilts is another supportive factor today for T-note prices. The 10-year gilt yield fell to a 1-week low of 0.614% today on no-deal Brexit concerns after Irish Foreign Minister Coveney dampened speculation of a Brexit deal when he said there is still "quite a wide gap" between the U.K. and European Union. Ongoing Middle East tensions remain a supportive factor for safe-haven demand of T-notes after Iran's foreign minister on Thursday warned that any U.S. or Saudi strike on his country in response to Saturday's attack on Saudi oil installations would lead to "all-out war." U.S. inflation expectations are lower today as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate is down by -0.3 bp to 1.616%. The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low of 1.592% on Thursday but is still up sharply from last Tuesday's 2-3/4 year low of 1.494%.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
10-Year Treasury-Note
Contract Size
$100,000
Tick Size
One half of 1/32 of a point ($15.625 per contract) rounded up to the nearest cent per contract; par is on the basis of 100 points
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,430/1,300
First Notice Date
08/31/15
Expiration Date
09/21/15 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

10-Year T-Note Sep '15
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Sep Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Sep 10, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
2,356,798 (-65,163)
2,113,714 (+40,363)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
623,170 (+35,357)
923,603 (-42,077)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
178,576 (+4,441)
213,750 (-2,469)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
1,493,533 (-152,747)
654,520 (-23,173)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
327,109 (+28,608)
1,220,712 (-6,008)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
255,432 (+41,907)
223,017 (-18,049)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
127-035 +0.73%
on 09/16/15
129-285 -1.43%
on 08/24/15
-0-205 (-0.50%)
since 08/21/15
3-Month
124-290 +2.50%
on 06/26/15
129-285 -1.43%
on 08/24/15
+1-145 (+1.15%)
since 06/19/15
52-Week
123-010 +4.06%
on 09/24/14
129-310 -1.49%
on 02/02/15
+5-090 (+4.30%)
since 09/19/14

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Most Recent Stories

More News
10-year T-notes Slip as Trade Optimism Boosts Stocks

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ19) this morning are down -2 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield is down by -1.6 bp to 1.768%. Dec T-notes are slightly weaker this morning on reduced U.S./China trade tensions that...

China Lowers Interest Rates

China cut its new one-year benchmark lending rate for the second month in a row today, after the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank recently lowered borrowing costs and left the door open for...

Canadian Retail Sales on deck

Market consensus is +0.6% MoM, +0.3% ex. Autos. Traders also watching results of NY Feds latest repo operation. $75blnUSD to be offered overnight again today. Sterling reversing yesterdays upside...

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Elliott Wave View: SPY Can See Further Strength in Short Term

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The Trend Trader For Futures Trading on Friday, September 20, 2019

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10-year T-notes Settle Higher on Global Economic Concerns and a Rally in UK gilts

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ19) on Thursday closed up +6.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield fell -1.9 bp to 1.770%. Dec T-notes moved higher Thursday on global economic concerns along with carry-over strength...

Fed Cuts and Gold Drops. Again

History may not repeat itself to the letter but it certainly rhymes. Thats what the Fed watchers would say now. The Fed cut the interest rates for the second time this year and the price of gold declined...

The Many Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us

Volatile trading is calming down, revealing several opportunities. The euro has retraced its yesterdays downswing, the Japanese yen is strengthening just as the Canadian dollar is. Swiss franc is another...

10-year T-notes are Stronger on Global Economic Concerns and a Rally in UK gilts

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ19) this morning are up +7.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield is down -3.6 bp to 1.760%. Dec T-notes are stronger today on global economic concerns along with carry-over strength...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 48% Buy with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 128-140
1st Resistance Point 128-075
Last Price 128-010s
1st Support Level 127-295
2nd Support Level 127-260

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52-Week High 129-310
Last Price 128-010s
Fibonacci 61.8% 127-100
Fibonacci 50% 126-160
Fibonacci 38.2% 125-220
52-Week Low 123-010

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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