Stocks Rise Before the Open as Investors Weigh Big Tech Earnings, U.S. Economic Data and Apple Results in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are up +0.17%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are up +0.19% this morning as investors digest earnings reports from big U.S. tech companies.

Technology stocks led the gains in U.S. equity futures as the sector’s megacaps ramped up spending to expand the infrastructure underpinning AI. Meta Platforms said it plans to invest up to $135 billion this year, well above expectations.

Meta Platforms (META) climbed over +7% in pre-market trading after the social media giant posted upbeat Q4 results and issued strong Q1 revenue guidance. Also, Tesla (TSLA) gained more than +3% in pre-market trading after the EV maker reported better-than-expected Q4 results and said it would invest $2 billion in xAI. At the same time, Microsoft (MSFT) slumped over -6% in pre-market trading after the technology behemoth’s spending climbed to a record high and cloud sales growth slowed in FQ2, fueling concerns that it may take longer than anticipated for the company’s AI investments to pay off.

Investors now await a fresh batch of U.S. economic data and a raft of corporate earnings reports, with a particular focus on results from Magnificent Seven member Apple.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended mixed. Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) jumped over +19% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the hard-disk-drive maker posted upbeat FQ2 results, issued above-consensus FQ3 guidance, and CEO Dave Mosley highlighted a spike in demand from AI data centers. Also, Texas Instruments (TXN) surged more than +9% after the semiconductor company provided solid Q1 guidance. In addition, F5 Inc. (FFIV) climbed over +8% after the cloud software company reported stronger-than-expected FQ1 results and raised its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, Carvana (CVNA) plunged over -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after activist short seller Gotham City Research released a detailed report on the company, raising concerns that its earnings were “overstated.”

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 3.50%-3.75%. Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a quarter-point cut. In a post-meeting statement, officials said “job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization.” Policymakers also removed language referring to heightened downside risks to employment that had appeared in the previous three statements.

At a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted a “clear improvement” in expectations for the U.S. economy in the year ahead. “The outlook for economic activity has improved, clearly improved since the last meeting, and that should matter for labor demand and for employment over time,” Powell said. He demurred when asked what it would take for the Fed to cut again.

“The Fed song remains the same — lower interest rates may be coming, but investors will have to remain patient,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “With signs of stabilization in the labor market and inflation holding steady, the Fed is in a position to play the wait-and-see game.”

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 86.5% chance of no rate change and a 13.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.

Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, and investors look forward to fresh reports from high-profile companies today, including Apple (AAPL), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Caterpillar (CAT), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), KLA Corp. (KLAC), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Altria (MO). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 206K, compared to last week’s number of 200K.

U.S. Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity data will also be closely watched today. Economists forecast final Q3 Unit Labor Costs to drop -1.9% q/q and Nonfarm Productivity to rise +4.9% q/q, compared to the revised second-quarter numbers of -2.9% q/q and +4.1% q/q, respectively.

U.S. Trade Balance data will be released today. Economists anticipate that the trade deficit will widen to -$43.4 billion in November from -$29.4 billion in October.

U.S. Factory Orders data will come in today. Economists expect this figure to rise +1.7% m/m in November, following a -1.3% m/m drop in October.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists forecast that the final November figure will come in at +0.2% m/m.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.260%, up +0.21%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.35% this morning as strength in mining and energy stocks helped offset pressure from earnings-related concerns. Mining stocks rallied on Thursday as gold and silver prices reached new all-time highs. Energy stocks also advanced as oil prices rose on concerns that the U.S. could carry out a military strike on key Middle Eastern producer Iran. At the same time, technology stocks fell. European Central Bank data released on Thursday showed that lending growth to Eurozone firms stalled in December, while household lending continued to edge higher, reinforcing economists’ views that the bloc’s expansion remains modest, albeit relatively steady. Separately, data showed that business confidence in the Eurozone rose much more than expected in January. Meanwhile, Sweden’s central bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 1.75% on Thursday and reiterated that the next move is unlikely to occur anytime soon. “The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come,” policymakers said in a statement. In corporate news, SAP Se (SAP.D.DX) plunged over -14% after the German business software group’s current cloud backlog and full-year cloud revenue growth guidance disappointed investors. Also, Deutsche Bank AG (DBK.D.DX) fell more than -1% despite reporting its largest full-year profit since 2007.

Eurozone’s Business and Consumer Survey and Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence data were released today. 

Eurozone’s January Business and Consumer Survey arrived at 99.4, stronger than expectations of 97.0.

Eurozone’s January Consumer Confidence came in at -12.4, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.16%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.03%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended higher today, marking a third straight session of gains. Liquor stocks led the gains on Thursday, with Anhui Gujing Distillery jumping +10% after the spirits producer proposed a cash dividend of 10 yuan ($1.44) for every 10 shares held, amounting to a total payout of 530 million yuan ($76.29 million). Real estate stocks also rallied after local media reported on Thursday that property developers are no longer required to submit monthly data tied to the country’s “three red lines” policy, signaling a potential end to rules that sparked a major debt crisis that persists today. The “three red lines” refer to limits on debt-to-cash, debt-to-assets, and debt-to-equity ratios that Chinese authorities imposed on property developers in 2020 to curb excessive borrowing in the sector. Bernstein analysts expect higher property investment to lift business banqueting and create a positive wealth effect for individuals, which should also support liquor stocks. Limiting gains, semiconductor and other AI-related stocks slumped. Meanwhile, turnover in China’s onshore markets has remained around 3 trillion yuan ($420 billion), with new hot sectors emerging and momentum building in non-ferrous metals, according to analysts at Caida Securities. In other news, state media reported on Thursday that China plans to roll out space-based AI data centers over the next five years, posing a challenge to Elon Musk’s plan to deploy SpaceX data centers into orbit. Investors are awaiting China’s PMI data for January, scheduled for release over the weekend.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index reversed earlier losses and closed slightly higher today, led by gains in Nvidia supplier Advantest and defense stocks. Defense stocks climbed on Thursday after a preliminary Nikkei newspaper survey showed that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party is likely to gain seats and secure a majority in the lower house in a general election on February 8th. An LDP win would give the premier more room to push her policy agenda, including strengthening national security and expanding stimulus. Meanwhile, Advantest climbed over +5%, giving a notable boost to the tech-heavy index, after the chip-testing equipment maker reported better-than-expected FQ3 results and raised its full-year guidance. However, most other tech stocks retreated after Microsoft’s spending climbed to a record high and cloud sales growth slowed in FQ2. Japanese government bonds were mixed on Thursday, with shorter-dated notes falling in line with overnight moves in U.S. Treasuries, while longer-dated securities remained supported by the previous day’s strong 40-year JGB auction. SMBC Nikko Securities’ Ataru Okumura said that JGB yields could climb again if Japan’s ruling LDP secures more seats in the Lower House election. In other news, foreign investors bought 328.1 billion yen worth of Japanese stocks in the week ended January 24th, marking a fifth straight week of net buying, according to Ministry of Finance data. Investors are now awaiting a slate of Japanese economic data due on Friday, including Tokyo core CPI, industrial production, retail sales, and employment figures. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -3.29% to 33.20.

The Japanese January Household Confidence stood at 37.9, stronger than expectations of 37.1.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Meta Platforms (META) climbed over +7% in pre-market trading after the social media giant posted upbeat Q4 results and issued strong Q1 revenue guidance.

Tesla (TSLA) gained more than +3% in pre-market trading after the EV maker reported better-than-expected Q4 results and said it would invest $2 billion in xAI.

Microsoft (MSFT) slumped over -6% in pre-market trading after the technology behemoth’s spending climbed to a record high and cloud sales growth slowed in FQ2, fueling concerns that it may take longer than anticipated for the company’s AI investments to pay off.

International Business Machines (IBM) surged more than +8% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected Q4 revenue, driven by robust growth in its closely watched software segment.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) slid over -7% in pre-market trading after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 profit for the key Macao market.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - January 29th

Apple (AAPL), Visa A (V), Mastercard (MA), Caterpillar (CAT), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), KLA Corp. (KLAC), Honeywell (HON), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Stryker (SYK), Parker-Hannifin (PH), Altria (MO), Comcast (CMCSA), Western Digital (WDC), Trane Technologies (TT), Marsh McLennan (MRSH), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), SanDisk (SNDK), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Arthur J Gallagher (AJG), Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ), Valero Energy (VLO), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), ResMed (RMD), Hartford (HIG), Tractor Supply (TSCO), LPL Financial (LPLA), Dover (DOV), PulteGroup (PHM), International Paper (IP), Dow (DOW), Rogers Communications (RCI), Weyerhaeuser (WY), Carpenter Technology (CRS), Hologic (HOLX), AO Smith (AOS), Oshkosh (OSK), Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR), Eastman Chemical (EMN), Appfolio Inc (APPF), PennyMac Financial (PFSI), Eagle Materials (EXP), Kirby (KEX), Valley National (VLY), TAL Education (TAL), Allegro (ALGM), Dolby Labs (DLB), Virtu Financial Inc (VIRT), Brunswick (BC), Ameris (ABCB), Schneider National (SNDR), Axos Financial (AX), CSW Industrials Inc (CSW), Lazard (LAZ), Group 1 Automotive (GPI), CNX Resources (CNX), Selective (SIGI), Cavco (CVCO), Credit Acceptance (CACC), SkyWest (SKYW), Federated Investors B (FHI), Seacoast Banking Florida (SBCF), The Bancorp (TBBK), Standex (SXI), Robert Half (RHI), Olin (OLN), DXC Technology (DXC), Minerals Technologies (MTX), MaxLinear (MXL), Orchid Island Capital (ORC), ConnectOne (CNOB), ManpowerGroup (MAN), PennyMac Mortgage (PMT), Southside (SBSI),  John B Sanfilippo&Son (JBSS), Five Point (FPH).