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Robusta Coffee 10-T Sep '19 (RMU19)

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Robusta Coffee 10-T Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Prices Recover from Early Losses and Close Higher on Short-Covering

September arabica coffee (KCU19) on Monday closed up by +3.60 (+3.38%), and Sep ICE robusta coffee (RMU19) closed up by +10 (+0.70%). Coffee prices sold-off early Monday, with Sep arabica coffee at a 2-1/2 week low and Sep robusta coffee at a 3-week low. However, short-covering then emerged to drive prices higher. Coffee prices fell early Monday on the outlook for dry conditions in Brazil to speed up the pace of Brazil's coffee harvest after Somar Meteorologia said there was no rainfall in the past week in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing region. Coffee prices were already on the defensive after Cooxupe last Wednesday said the recent frost in Brazil wasn't "significant" and that they expect growers to harvest 5.3-5.5 mln bags of coffee in the 2019/20 season, up from 4.25 mln bags in 2018/19. Supplies in South America are ample after CeCafe reported last Monday that Brazil coffee exports in the 12 months through June rose to a record high of 41.1 MMT. In a supportive factor for coffee prices, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) on July 3 cut its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate by -8.8% to 3.11 mln bags from a prior view of 3.41 mln bags. Also, current coffee supplies have tightened after ICE-monitored coffee inventories dropped to a 9-1/2 month low of 2.363 mln bags last Monday, down from March's 4-3/4 year high of 2.503 mln bags. A positive for robusta coffee is smaller supply from Vietnam, the world's largest producer of robusta beans, after last Thursday's data from Vietnam's General Department of Vietnam Customs showed that Vietnam June coffee exports fell -8.6% y/y to 142,448 MT and for the first half of 2019 fell by -11.5% y/y to 919,038 MT.
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