Robusta Coffee 10-T Nov '19 (RMX19)

by cmdtyNewswires - Fri Sep 13, 1:50PM CDT
Dec arabica coffee (KCZ19) on Friday closed down -0.85 (-0.82%), and Jan ICE robusta coffee (DFF0) closed down -12 (-0.88%). Coffee prices moved lower Friday on consolidation after recent gains. Dec arabica coffee posted a 6-week high Wednesday and Jan robusta coffee rose to a 2-week high on crop concerns in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia on Monday said that most arabica-coffee crops in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais, the biggest arabica coffee growing region in Brazil, have not had significant rain in 3 months and that temperatures have been above average, which has stressed crops. Tuesday's data from CeCafe was also supportive for coffee prices after CeCafe reported Brazil Aug green coffee exports fell -8.5% y/y to 2.9 mln bags. Also, current coffee supplies have tightened after ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 1-year low of 2.316 mln bags on Friday. In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) last Tuesday reported that global 2018-19 coffee exports during Oct-Jul rose +10% y/y to 109.4 mln bags. Also, ICO last Wednesday raised its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate to 4.96 mln bags from an August estimate of 3.92 mln bags. A supportive factor for robusta coffee was data Wednesday from Vietnam's General Department of Vietnam Customs that showed Vietnam Aug coffee exports fell -18.7% m/m and -25.4% y/y to 114,162 MT, and cumulative Jan-Aug coffee exports are down by -11.5% y/y to 1.17 MMT. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta beans. A potentially bullish factor for robusta coffee, Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed funds increased their net-short robusta coffee positions by 2,546 positions the week of Sep 10 to a record 45,434 net-short positions, the most since data began in 2011, which could provide fuel for a short-covering rally. Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: World coffee production (Oct/Sep) in 2018/19 will climb +3.9% y/y to a record 169.727 mln bags with global consumption +2.1% y/y to 164.769 mln bags (ICO). The world coffee surplus in 2018/19 will climb to 4.958 mln bags from a 2017/18 surplus of 2.046 mln bags (ICO). USDA projects global 2018/19 coffee production will climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks will increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags.