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Sugar #11 May '19 (SBK19)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Market News and Commentary

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Friday closed up +0.58 (+4.67%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) closed up +12.90 (+3.77%). Sugar prices rallied Friday with May NY sugar at a 3-week high and May London white sugar at a 2-week high. Strength in the Brazilian real and in crude oil prices Friday fueled short-covering in sugar futures. The Brazilian real rose to a 1-week high against the dollar, which discourages exports by Brazil's sugar producers. Meanwhile, crude oil climbed to a 1-1/2 week high, which benefits ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil’s sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus curbing sugar supplies. May London white sugar saw technical support after the contract on Friday moved above its 200-day moving average. May NY sugar tumbled to a 5-week low Thursday after India raised the minimum selling price of sugar by 6.9%, below expectations for a 10% increase. A higher minimum sugar price may prompt India's sugar millers to sell more sugar in the domestic market and potentially reduce its sugar exports and global supply. A positive for sugar prices is stronger demand for Brazil's ethanol after Unica on Tuesday reported that Brazil millers sold 1.83 billion liters of hydrous ethanol in the domestic market in Jan, up +32.5% y/y and a record volume for a January. Unica also reported on Tuesday that Brazil's 2018/19 Center-South sugar production during Oct-Jan was down -26.4% at 26.36 MMT, with 35.4% of cane used for sugar (down from 46.9% last year), and 64.56% of cane used for ethanol production (up from 53.1% last year).Big Picture Sugar Market Factors: Bullish factors for sugar include (1) Conab's hike in its Brazil 2018/19 ethanol production estimate to a record 32.2 bln liters (+18.6% y/y), citing the action by Brazil's sugar millers to divert less cane juice to produce sugar as global sugar inventories are seen rising and prices are falling, (2) concern about smaller global production after Unica forecasted that Brazil's Center South 2018/19 sugar production will fall -28% y/y to 26 MMT, (3) the action by India, the world’s second-biggest sugar producer, to raise the minimum selling price of sugar to 31 rupees/kg from 29 rupees/kg, which may prompt India's sugar millers to sell more sugar in the domestic market and potentially reduce its sugar exports and global supply, and (4) stronger demand for Brazil's ethanol after Unica reported Brazil millers sold 1.83 billion liters of hydrous ethanol in the domestic market in Jan, up +32.5% y/y and a record volume for a January. Bearish factors include (1) ISO's forecast that global 2018/19 sugar production will rise +0.6% y/y to a record 185.2 MMT and that there will be a 2018/19 sugar surplus of 2.2 MMT (vs 2017/18's 7.3 MMT), (2) USDA's FAS forecast for 2018/19 sugar production in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, to climb +5.3% y/y to a record 35.9 MMT, (3) record sugar output from Thailand, the world's fourth-largest sugar producer, after the Thailand Office of Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand 2017/18 sugar production rose to a record 14.47 MMT, (4) a glut of U.S. gasoline after U.S. EIA gasoline inventories rose to a record high of 259.6 million bbl last month, which is negative for ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar producers to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production instead of ethanol production, which would boost sugar supplies.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,120
Margin/Maintenance
$1,047/952
First Notice Date
05/01/19 (75 days)
Expiration Date
04/30/19 (74 days)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 May '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jan 22, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
510,101 (+19,287)
532,649 (+25,882)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
154,382 (-10,196)
151,522 (-17,894)
Producers - Long / Short
293,784 (+12,804)
467,583 (+20,865)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
184,601 (+1,849)
33,350 (+383)
Managed Money - Long / Short
103,909 (-5,329)
133,462 (-18,488)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
50,473 (-4,867)
18,060 (+594)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
12.34 +5.35%
on 02/14/19
13.37 -2.77%
on 01/16/19
-0.25 (-1.89%)
since 01/15/19
3-Month
11.82 +9.98%
on 01/03/19
13.37 -2.77%
on 01/16/19
+0.20 (+1.56%)
since 11/15/18
52-Week
10.94 +18.83%
on 09/27/18
14.95 -13.04%
on 03/06/18
-1.72 (-11.68%)
since 02/15/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 48% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 13.57
1st Resistance Point 13.28
Last Price 13.00s
1st Support Level 12.58
2nd Support Level 12.17

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52-Week High 14.95
Fibonacci 61.8% 13.42
Last Price 13.00s
Fibonacci 50% 12.94
Fibonacci 38.2% 12.47
52-Week Low 10.94

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