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Hard Red Wheat Dec '18 (KEZ18)

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cmdty Insider - Hard Red Wheat Market Commentary

Fri Sep 21, 4:04PM CDT
Wheat futures were down 1 to 2 1/4 cents in most KC and CBT contracts on Friday, with MPLS 5 to 6 cents lower. All three markets saw gains in the Dec contracts on the week, with CBT up 2%, KC 1.74% higher, and MPLS 1.79% in the green. Total export commitments for wheat have picked up on last year over the past few weeks but are still lagging by 22%. USDA is projecting a 13.76% increase in exports from 17/18 to 18/19. Combined shipments and outstanding sales are now 37% of that projection of 1.025 bbu, with the typical pace at 55% by this time. Spec funds in Chicago wheat futures and options flipped 19,794 contracts to a net short position of -1,379 contracts as of Tuesday. Their net position in KC futures and options was still long 37,084 contracts, 6,455 fewer than the week prior. Russia’s IKAR trimmed their production estimate by 0.4 to 69.2 MMT for 2018 wheat production on Friday. Consultant SovEcon cut Russia’s wheat export projection by 0.9 to 33 MMT.DEC 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.21 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,DEC 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.25 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,DEC 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.82 1/2, down 6 cents

Contract Specifications

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Contract
KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
KCBT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,787/1,625
First Notice Date
11/29/18 (68 days)
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (83 days)

Seasonal Chart

Daily price change for Hard Red Wheat Dec '18
Average price change for the 5 prior Dec contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Sep 18, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
107,317 (+1,978)
153,875 (-4,077)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
93,574 (+2,458)
45,366 (+8,476)
Producers - Long / Short
53,708 (+4,964)
134,050 (-3,434)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
41,553 (-2,917)
7,769 (-574)
Managed Money - Long / Short
66,792 (+764)
34,255 (+8,412)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
26,782 (+1,694)
11,111 (+64)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
498-6 +5.31%
on 09/13/18
569-0 -7.69%
on 08/23/18
-37-0 (-6.58%)
since 08/21/18
3-Month
493-2 +6.49%
on 07/02/18
626-0 -16.09%
on 08/07/18
-7-2 (-1.36%)
since 06/21/18
52-Week
478-2 +9.83%
on 12/12/17
626-0 -16.09%
on 08/07/18
-13-6 (-2.55%)
since 09/21/17

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Wheat futures are showing losses of 4 to 6 cents in most contracts at midday. Total export commitments for wheat have picked up on last year over the past few weeks but are still lagging by 22%. USDA is...

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 533-1
1st Resistance Point 529-1
Last Price 525-2s
1st Support Level 520-3
2nd Support Level 515-5

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52-Week High 626-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 569-4
Fibonacci 50% 552-1
Fibonacci 38.2% 534-6
Last Price 525-2s
52-Week Low 478-2

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