Stocks Retreat From Initial Highs as Oil Prices Rebound

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.08%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.30%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.14%.  

After initially opening higher, stocks are now mixed. WTI crude oil has rebounded off earlier lows and is up +0.33%. Oil and the Strait of Hormuz are in focus. 

The US granted a temporary waiver allowing buyers to take Russian oil cargoes already at sea.  The US Treasury granted a month-long waiver to import Russian oil loaded before Thursday, covering Russian crude oil and fuel on about 30 tankers carrying at least 19 million barrels.  The Financial Times reported that France and Italy have opened talks with Iran to try to negotiate a deal to guarantee the safe passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz. US officials said Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, an effort that could further complicate US efforts to restart shipping in the waterway. Despite the US destroying most large ships in the Iranian navy used to lay mines, Iran began using smaller boats for the operation on Thursday, according to a US official briefed on the intelligence.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel, should crude flows via the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

The latest rhetoric from President Trump and Iranian leader Khamenei suggests there will be no immediate easing in the war that has disrupted energy shipments in the Middle East and spurred concerns about rising inflation.  Global bond yields have soared this week on inflation fears, with the German 10-year bund yield rising to a 2.25-year high of 2.99% today and the 10-year T--note yield climbing to a 5-week high at 4.28%. 

Crude oil prices remain elevated despite attempts to boost global supplies.  The IEA on Wednesday released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region. 

Today’s US economic news is mixed for stocks.  Jan personal spending rose more than expected, but Jan capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts, a proxy for capital spending, were weaker than expected.  Also, Q4 GDP was revised lower, and the Jan core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose by the most in 1.75 years.

US Jan personal spending rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.  Jan personal income rose +0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

The US Jan core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose +3.1% y/y, right on expectations and the highest in 1.75 years.

US Jan capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

US Q4 GDP was revised downward to +0.7% (q/q annualized) from the previously reported +1.4% as Q4 personal consumption was revised lower to +2.0% from the previously reported +2.4%.

Q4 earnings season is nearly over, with more than 98% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 495 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 0% chance for a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.33%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.82%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.16%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +7 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.6 bp to 4.245%.  June T-notes are moving higher today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell from a 5-week high of 4.279%.  Today’s 2% decline in WTI crude oil prices has lowered inflation expectations and is bullish for T-notes.  Also, today’s US economic news, which showed Q4 GDP revised lower and Jan capital goods new orders climbing less than expected, was supportive of T-notes. 

European government bond yields moved higher on Thursday.  The 10-year German bund yield fell from a 2.25-year high of 2.992% and is down -1.0 bp to 2.947%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 6.25-month high of 4.812% and is down -1.2 bp to 4.761%.

UK Jan GDP was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.

UK Jan manufacturing production rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Chip stocks and AI-infrastructure companies are moving higher today, a supportive factor for the broader market.  Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +4%, and Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +3%.  Also, Intel (INTC), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Lam Research (LRCX), and Applied Materials (AMAT) are up more than +2%.  In addition, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Microchip Technology (MCHP), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +1%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +3% at a 1-week high.  Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +6%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up more than +5%. Also, Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +4%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +3%. 

Fertilizer stocks are retreating today, giving back some of this week’s sharp gains.  Intrepid Potash (IPI) is down more than -7%, CF Industries Holdings (CF) is down more than -5%, and Mosaic (MOS) is down more than -3%. 

Klarna Group Plc (KLAR) is up more than +9% after an SEC filing showed Chairman Morits purchased 3.47 million shares through an associated entity between March 3 and March 11.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is up more than +4% after Mizuho Securities raised its price target on the stock to $120 from $100.

Karman Holdings (KRMN) is up more than +3% after Needham & Co issued a buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of $125.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) is up more than +2% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $64. 

Celanese (CE) is up more than +1% after Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $70.

Air Products and Chemicals (APD) is up more than +1% after Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $325.

EverCommerce (EVCM) is down more than -18% after forecasting Q1 revenue of $145.5 million to $148.5 million, well below the consensus of $151 million.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after it forecast full-year comparable sales will increase 2.5% to 3.5%, below the consensus of 3.5%. 

Adobe (ADBE) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after CEO Narayen said he will resign and remain in his post until a successor has been appointed. 

Meta Platforms (META) is down more than -2% after the New York Times reported that the company’s latest AI model has underperformed expectations and will be delayed. 

ServiceTitan (TTAN) is down more than -2% after reporting a Q4 EPS loss of -44 cents, wider than the consensus of -41 cents.

Earnings Reports(3/13/2026)

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT), Actuate Therapeutics Inc (ACTU), AirSculpt Technologies Inc (AIRS), AlTi Global Inc (ALTI), American Vanguard Corp (AVD), Avidity Biosciences Inc (RNAM), Better Home & Finance Holding (BETR), Bit Digital Inc (BTBT), Blue Foundry Bancorp (BLFY), Buckle Inc/The (BKE), CapsoVision Inc (CV), Citizens Inc/TX (CIA), Emerald Holding Inc (EEX), Eve Holding Inc (EVEX), GoHealth Inc (GOCO), Gossamer Bio Inc (GOSS), John Marshall Bancorp Inc (JMSB), LENSAR Inc (LNSR), MeiraGTx Holdings plc (MGTX), NET Lease Office Properties (NLOP), Perma-Fix Environmental Services (PESI), Value Line Inc (VALU), Waldencast plc (WALD).