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Natural Gas Oct '19 (NGV19)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Prices Close Lower on Carry-Over from Thursday's Bearish EIA Nat-Gas Inventories

Oct Nymex natural gas (NGV19) on Friday closed down by -0.004 (-0.16%). Nat-gas prices moved lower for a third day Friday and posted a 1-week low. Negative carry-over from Thursday's bearish EIA inventory report weighed on nat-gas prices Friday. The EIA reported Thursday that U.S. nat-gas supplies rose by 84 bcf in the week ended Sep 13, above expectations of 76 bcf and also above the 5-year average of 82 bcf. Nat-gas prices were already on the defensive on the outlook for warmer-than-normal U.S. weather to persist into October, which will curb nat-gas demand for heating needs in the northern states. The Weather Company on Friday said it expects above-average temperatures across most of the U.S. from Sep 25-Oct 4. Nat-gas prices raced up to a 3-3/4 month high Monday on the near-term outlook for warm weather across the U.S. that should boost nat-gas demand from utilities to power air-conditioning. NOAA on Monday said that it expects warmer-than-normal weather across the entire U.S. during Sep 23-29. Also, Maxar on Tuesday said that it expects above-normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the lower contiguous U.S. states through Oct 1. High U.S. nat-gas production continues to be a bearish factor with lower-48 nat-gas production Friday up +7.4% y/y at 91.637 bcf/d. Strong U.S. nat-gas output has caused U.S. nat-gas inventories to rise sharply in recent months to the current level of +14.5% y/y from -22.3% y/y in March. Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories rose by 84 bcf, which pushed nat-gas inventories up to a 10-month high of 3,103 bcf in the week of Sep 13. Inventories are up +14.0% y/y but are still -2.4% below the 5-year average. Big Picture Natural Gas Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) solid demand from Mexico for U.S. nat-gas, (2) strong global natural gas demand due to firm global economic growth and the need to substitute for coal to reduce global CO2 emissions, and (3) significant U.S. LNG nat-gas export potential as more LNG ports are built in the U.S. and around the world. Bearish factors include (1) China's hike in its import tariff to 25% from 10% on U.S. LNG imports as of June 1, which effectively eliminated any Chinese buying of U.S. nat-gas, (2) high U.S. nat gas inventories that are up +14.0% y/y, and (3) near-record U.S. natural gas production.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Natural Gas
Contract Size
10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units)
Tick Size
0.001 per MMBtu ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$10,000
Margin/Maintenance
$2,200/2,000
First Notice Date
09/27/19 (6 days)
Expiration Date
09/26/19 (5 days)

Seasonal Chart

Natural Gas Oct '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Oct Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Sep 17, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
585,596 (-11,498)
496,875 (+17,693)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
202,792 (+5,474)
325,967 (-21,780)
Producers - Long / Short
228,518 (-2,611)
246,430 (+8,235)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
230,310 (-2,590)
123,677 (+15,755)
Managed Money - Long / Short
147,504 (+6,671)
206,456 (-30,358)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
55,288 (-1,197)
119,511 (+8,578)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2.126 +19.19%
on 08/23/19
2.710 -6.49%
on 09/17/19
+0.315 (+14.20%)
since 08/20/19
3-Month
2.045 +23.91%
on 08/05/19
2.710 -6.49%
on 09/17/19
+0.348 (+15.92%)
since 06/20/19
52-Week
2.045 +23.91%
on 08/05/19
3.000 -15.53%
on 03/19/19
-0.135 (-5.06%)
since 09/20/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Buy with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 2.613
1st Resistance Point 2.573
Last Price 2.534s
1st Support Level 2.500
2nd Support Level 2.467

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52-Week High 3.000
Fibonacci 61.8% 2.635
Last Price 2.534s
Fibonacci 50% 2.523
Fibonacci 38.2% 2.410
52-Week Low 2.045

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