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Natural Gas Apr '19 (NGJ19)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Prices Drop to a 1-Week Low on Ample Supply

Sep Nymex natural gas (NGU19) this morning is down by -0.005 (-0.19%). Nat-gas prices fell to a 1-week low today on ramped up U.S. nat-gas output along with negative carry-over from Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories that rose +59 bcf, higher than expectations of +58 bcf and above the 5-year average of 51 bcf. High U.S. nat-gas production is negative for nat-gas prices with lower-48 nat-gas production today up +9.2% y/y at 92.109 bcf/d. Higher U.S. nat-gas output has caused U.S. nat-gas inventories to rise sharply in recent months to the current level of +14.9% y/y from -22.3% y/y in March. Another bearish factor for nat-gas prices is the outlook for cooler temperatures to move into the central and eastern United States. Maxar on Wednesday forecast that the U.S. East and Mid-Continent could see below-normal temperatures during Aug 31-Sep 4. Thursday's EIA inventory report pushed nat-gas inventories up to an 8-month high of 2,797 bcf the week of Aug 16, up +14.9% y/y, although inventories are still -3.6% below the 5-year average.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Natural Gas
Contract Size
10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units)
Tick Size
0.001 per MMBtu ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$10,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,815/1,650
First Notice Date
03/28/19
Expiration Date
03/26/19 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Natural Gas Apr '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Apr Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Aug 13, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
665,736 (-17,868)
493,928 (-21,809)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
205,912 (-7,644)
418,466 (+4,829)
Producers - Long / Short
237,411 (-25,705)
220,813 (-39,877)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
246,541 (-1,641)
91,331 (+8,590)
Managed Money - Long / Short
131,233 (-4,045)
367,343 (+10,502)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
74,679 (-3,599)
51,123 (-5,673)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2.671 +1.57%
on 03/27/19
2.897 -6.35%
on 03/19/19
-0.086 (-3.07%)
since 02/27/19
3-Month
2.565 +5.77%
on 02/07/19
2.932 -7.47%
on 01/15/19
-0.172 (-5.96%)
since 12/27/18
52-Week
2.523 +7.53%
on 05/10/18
3.060 -11.34%
on 12/05/18
+0.047 (+1.76%)
since 03/27/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 48% Sell with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 2.766
1st Resistance Point 2.740
Last Price 2.713s
1st Support Level 2.679
2nd Support Level 2.644

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52-Week High 3.060
Fibonacci 61.8% 2.855
Fibonacci 50% 2.792
Fibonacci 38.2% 2.728
Last Price 2.713s
52-Week Low 2.523

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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