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Crude Oil WTI Sep '16 (CLU16)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures Market News and Commentary

Energy Complex Settles Mixed as Dollar Weakness Offsets Over Supply Concerns

Oct WTI crude oil (CLV19) on Friday closed down by -0.24 (-0.44%), Nov Brent crude oil (CBX19) closed down by -0.16 (-0.26%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV19) closed up by +0.0001 (+0.01%). The energy complex settled mixed Friday as concern about over supply offset a fall in the dollar index to a 2-week low. The dollar index fell to a 2-week low Friday, which gave the energy complex a boost. Also, trade tensions eased after China's Commerce Ministry announced Friday that it is encouraging companies to buy U.S. farm products including soybeans and pork and will exclude those commodities from additional tariffs. Reduced U.S./China trade tensions are supportive for crude prices as that bolsters the outlook for economic growth and energy demand. Crude oil prices continued to be undercut by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) report on Thursday that OPEC+ faces a "daunting" oil market surplus in 2020 as global demand for OPEC+ crude in the first half of 2020 will be 1.4 million bpd below the group's Aug output levels as production surges from their competitors. Also, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said Thursday that any discussion of deeper OPEC+ crude production cuts will wait until the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meets on Dec 4. In addition, comments on Friday from the Executive Director of the IEA undercut the energy complex when he said new oil supply coming to market next year could pressure crude prices. Crude oil prices continue to be weighed down by concern that the Trump administration may be preparing to ease some sanctions on Iran in order to smooth the way towards a possible meeting between President Trump and Iranian President Rouhani in the last week of September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meetings in New York. An easing of sanctions on Iran could allow Iran to boost crude oil exports, thereby expanding global crude supplies. Friday's global economic data was supportive for economic growth prospects and energy demand. U.S. Aug retail sales rose +0.4%, stronger than expectations of +0.2%, and the University of Michigan U.S. Sep consumer sentiment rose +2.2 to 92.0, stronger than expectations of +1.0 to 90.8. Also, Eurozone Q2 labor costs rose +2.7% y/y, the fastest pace of increase in 9-3/4 years. In addition, Friday afternoon's weekly data from Baker Hughes showed U.S. active oil rigs fell by -5 to 733, the fewest in 1-3/4 years. Wednesday’s weekly EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 6 were -0.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were +3.2% above the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were -5.5% below the 5-year average. U.S. crude production in the week ended Sep 6 was unchanged at 12.4 million bpd, just below the record high of 12.5 million bpd in the week of Aug 23. Big Picture Crude Oil Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) the agreement by OPEC+ to extend its production cut agreement by 9 months until March 2020, (2) the -130,000 bpd decline in OPEC July crude production to a 5-1/2 year low of 29.87 million bpd, (3) heightened Persian Gulf tensions, and (4) the sharp drop in Iranian oil production from U.S. sanctions and in Venezuela oil production from U.S. sanctions and the economic crisis. Bearish factors include (1) the recent rally in the dollar index to a 2-year high, (2) global trade tensions that may drag global growth and energy demand lower, (3) the recent surge in U.S. oil production to a record high of 12.5 million bpd, and (4) near-average current supplies with U.S. crude oil inventories -0.9% below the 5-year average.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate
Contract Size
1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 gallons)
Tick Size
1 cent per barrel ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$4,015/3,650
First Notice Date
08/24/16
Expiration Date
08/22/16 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Crude Oil WTI Sep '16
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Sep Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Sep 10, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
716,210 (-32,622)
1,140,398 (+9,447)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
527,579 (+18,639)
99,374 (-25,409)
Producers - Long / Short
427,811 (-7,720)
417,361 (+906)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
133,402 (+1,591)
568,040 (+35,034)
Managed Money - Long / Short
262,145 (+19,995)
41,657 (-20,897)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
265,434 (-1,356)
57,717 (-4,512)
Get Realtime - Quotes and Charts for Futures Traders. Learn More >>

Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
39.19 +20.06%
on 08/03/16
48.75 -3.49%
on 08/19/16
+2.86 (+6.47%)
since 07/22/16
3-Month
39.19 +20.06%
on 08/03/16
52.73 -10.77%
on 06/09/16
-2.17 (-4.41%)
since 05/20/16
52-Week
32.85 +43.23%
on 01/20/16
54.91 -14.31%
on 08/31/15
+0.37 (+0.79%)
since 08/21/15

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Most Recent Stories

More News
Energy Complex Settles Mixed as Dollar Weakness Offsets Over Supply Concerns

Oct WTI crude oil (CLV19) on Friday closed down by -0.24 (-0.44%), Nov Brent crude oil (CBX19) closed down by -0.16 (-0.26%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV19) closed up by +0.0001 (+0.01%). The energy complex...

Natural Gas Prices Settle Higher on Expectations for Above-Average U.S. Temps

Oct Nymex natural gas (NGV19) on Friday closed up by +0.040 (+1.55%). Nat-gas prices moved higher Friday, although they remained below Wednesday's 3-1/2 month high, on expectations for warmer U.S. temperatures...

Algo Trading System Crude Oil Report For 9/16/2019

Based on 9 algo trading strategies developed with the Strategy Factory approach and 4 indicator based algo strategies, the current position bias for Crude Oil is NEUTRAL.

Crude Oil Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation

... current price highs, near $59 to $60, will likely continue as strong price resistance...

Energy Complex Slightly Higher on Dollar Weakness and Reduced Trade Tensions

Oct WTI crude oil (CLV19) this morning is up by +0.05 (+0.09%), Nov Brent crude oil (CBX19) is up by +0.10 (+0.18%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV19) is up by +0.0082 (+0.53%). The energy complex is posting...

Natural Gas Prices Firm on Expectations for Above-Average U.S. Temps

Oct Nymex natural gas (NGV19) this morning is up by +0.001 (+0.04%). Nat-gas prices are slightly higher today on expectations for warmer U.S. temperatures after the Commodity Weather Group today said temperatures...

In the Interim. The Energy Report 09/13/19

What is the best way for the global oil market to handle the potential return of Iranian oil supply? The best way would be to [...]

Friday the 13th

Yesterday the markets advanced as predicted. Will that hold true to today? Read on to learn more...

Algo Trading System Crude Oil Report For 9/13/2019

Based on 9 algo trading strategies developed with the Strategy Factory approach and 4 indicator based algo strategies, the current position bias for Crude Oil is NEUTRAL.

Natural Gas Prices Settle Higher on a Smaller-Than-Expected EIA Nat-Gas Inventory Rise

Oct Nymex natural gas (NGV19) on Thursday closed up by +0.022 (+0.86%). Nat-gas prices recovered from early losses Thursday and moved higher on a smaller-than-expected gain in weekly stockpiles. The EIA...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 32% Buy with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak.

The market is in highly overbought territory. Beware of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 49.05
1st Resistance Point 48.05
Last Price 47.05s
1st Support Level 46.40
2nd Support Level 45.75

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52-Week High 54.91
Last Price 47.05s
Fibonacci 61.8% 46.48
Fibonacci 50% 43.88
Fibonacci 38.2% 41.28
52-Week Low 32.85

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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