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Crude Oil WTI Aug '16 (CLQ16)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures Market News and Commentary

Crude Prices Settle Higher on a Weak Dollar, Trade Optimism, and Renewed Middle East Geopolitical Risks

Nov WTI crude oil (CLX19) on Friday closed up by +1.15 (+2.15%), Dec Brent crude oil (CBZ19) closed up by +1.41 (+2.39%), and Nov RBOB gasoline (RBX19) closed up +0.0155 (+0.95%). The energy complex rallied Friday and posted 1-1/2 week highs on a weaker dollar, trade optimism, and renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The dollar index slumped to a 3-week low Friday, which benefits most commodities priced in dollars. Meanwhile, growing optimism that the U.S. and China can negotiate a trade truce boosted economic growth and energy demand prospects. President Trump said Friday afternoon that both sides agreed to the outlines of a phase-one trade deal that could be signed as early as next month. Another bullish factor for crude prices was renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East after Iran said Friday one of its oil tankers was hit by missiles in the Red Sea, which boosts tensions in the Middle East that could threaten global crude supplies. Crude prices extended their gains after CNN reported Friday morning that the U.S. will send 1,800 troops to help defend Saudi Arabia. Friday's U.S. economic data was positive for economic growth prospects and energy demand after the University of Michigan's Oct U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose +2.8 to 96.0, stronger than expectations of -1.2 to 92.0. A negative for crude was Friday's action by the International Energy Association (IEA) to cut its 2019 global refining estimate by -200,000 bpd to 82.3 million bpd from a prior estimate of 82.5 million bpd. Wednesday’s weekly EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories as of Oct 4 were +1.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were +2.3% above the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were -9.5% below the 5-year average. U.S. crude production in the week ended Oct 4 rose +1.6% w/w to a new record high of 12.6 million bpd. Big Picture Crude Oil Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) the Sep 14 attack on Saudi Arabia's key Abqaiq oil processing facility that temporarily cut Saudi Arabia's oil production by half (i.e., 5 mln bpd of total 9.8 mln bpd production), representing about 5% of total world output, (2) the agreement by OPEC+ to extend its production cut agreement by 9 months until March 2020, (3) reduced OPEC crude output after OPEC Sep crude production fell -1.59 million bpd to 28.32 million bpd, the lowest in 10-1/4 years, (4) heightened Persian Gulf tensions, and (5) the sharp drop in Iranian oil production due to U.S. sanctions and in Venezuela oil production due to U.S. sanctions and its economic crisis. Bearish factors include (1) the recent rally in the dollar index to a 2-year high, (2) global trade tensions that may drag global growth and energy demand lower, (3) the surge in U.S. oil production to a record high of 12.6 million bpd, and (4) ample supplies with U.S. crude oil inventories +1.3% above the seasonal 5-year average.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate
Contract Size
1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 gallons)
Tick Size
1 cent per barrel ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$4,950/4,500
First Notice Date
07/22/16
Expiration Date
07/20/16 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Crude Oil WTI Aug '16
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Aug Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 8, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
793,152 (+9,733)
1,156,661 (-28,735)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
520,283 (+5,454)
165,198 (+39,688)
Producers - Long / Short
478,983 (+10,605)
447,388 (+11,393)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
136,547 (+1,370)
531,651 (-37,886)
Managed Money - Long / Short
210,463 (-7,301)
113,400 (+36,859)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
309,820 (+12,755)
51,798 (+2,829)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
43.69 +2.86%
on 07/20/16
50.54 -11.08%
on 06/22/16
-5.02 (-10.05%)
since 06/20/16
3-Month
43.69 +2.86%
on 07/20/16
52.28 -14.04%
on 06/09/16
-0.55 (-1.21%)
since 04/20/16
52-Week
32.22 +39.48%
on 01/20/16
55.98 -19.72%
on 07/21/15
-10.27 (-18.60%)
since 07/20/15

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 56% Sell with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 46.19
1st Resistance Point 45.56
Last Price 44.94s
1st Support Level 44.00
2nd Support Level 43.07

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52-Week High 55.98
Fibonacci 61.8% 46.90
Last Price 44.94s
Fibonacci 50% 44.10
Fibonacci 38.2% 41.30
52-Week Low 32.22

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