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Crude Oil WTI Jun '16 (CLM16)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures Market News and Commentary

Energy Complex Closes Higher on a Fall in the Dollar Index to a 1-Month Low

Nov WTI crude oil (CLX19) on Wednesday closed up by +0.55 (+1.04%), Dec Brent crude oil (CBZ19) closed up +0.68 (+1.16%), and Nov RBOB gasoline (RBX19) closed up +0.0104 (+0.64%). The energy complex moved higher Wednesday after the dollar index today tumbled to a 1-month low. The weak dollar benefits most commodities priced in dollars. Brexit optimism sparked a rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 to a 1-1/2 year high Wednesday, which was supportive for economic growth and energy demand prospects. UK Brexit Secretary Barclay told a parliamentary committee Wednesday that UK Prime Minister Johnson will seek an extension on Saturday if a deal hasn't been reached by then. Crude oil prices on Wednesday were undercut after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that OPEC faces a "serious challenge" if it wants to defend oil prices next year since fuel demand growth could slow further and since non-OPEC production continues to grow. Another negative for crude prices was concern that an economic slowdown in the U.S., the world's biggest consumer of crude, will undercut energy demand. Wednesday's U.S. Sep retail sales report unexpectedly fell -0.3% and -0.1% ex-autos, weaker than expectations of +0.3% and +0.2% ex-autos and the first decline in 7 months. Crude oil prices were also undercut by concern a trade agreement between the U.S. and China may be in jeopardy on increased tensions over Hong Kong after China's foreign ministry on Wednesday threatened unspecified "strong countermeasures" if the U.S. Congress passes a bill offering support to pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. The energy complex fell back from its best levels Wednesday afternoon when the API reported that U.S. crude stockpiles jumped +10.5 million bbl last week. Another bearish factor for crude is the consensus for Thursday's weekly EIA crude inventories to climb by +3.0 million bbl. Last Wednesday’s weekly EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories as of Oct 4 were +1.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were +2.3% above the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were -9.5% below the 5-year average. U.S. crude production in the week ended Oct 4 rose +1.6% w/w to a new record high of 12.6 million bpd.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate
Contract Size
1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 gallons)
Tick Size
1 cent per barrel ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$4,950/4,500
First Notice Date
05/24/16
Expiration Date
05/20/16 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Crude Oil WTI Jun '16
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jun Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 8, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
793,152 (+9,733)
1,156,661 (-28,735)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
520,283 (+5,454)
165,198 (+39,688)
Producers - Long / Short
478,983 (+10,605)
447,388 (+11,393)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
136,547 (+1,370)
531,651 (-37,886)
Managed Money - Long / Short
210,463 (-7,301)
113,400 (+36,859)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
309,820 (+12,755)
51,798 (+2,829)
Get Realtime - Quotes and Charts for Futures Traders. Learn More >>

Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
42.50 +12.35%
on 04/26/16
48.95 -2.45%
on 05/18/16
+3.57 (+8.08%)
since 04/20/16
3-Month
33.76 +41.44%
on 02/24/16
48.95 -2.45%
on 05/18/16
+13.16 (+38.05%)
since 02/19/16
52-Week
30.79 +55.08%
on 01/20/16
64.00 -25.39%
on 06/10/15
-14.54 (-23.34%)
since 05/20/15

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Buy with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 49.34
1st Resistance Point 48.55
Last Price 47.75s
1st Support Level 47.20
2nd Support Level 46.64

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52-Week High 64.00
Fibonacci 61.8% 51.31
Last Price 47.75s
Fibonacci 50% 47.40
Fibonacci 38.2% 43.48
52-Week Low 30.79

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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