Stocks Mixed as IEA Announces Historic Oil Reserve Release

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.46%. 

In an effort to stabilize energy markets disrupted by conflict in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency has authorized a record-breaking release of 400 million barrels of oil from its member nations' strategic reserves, surpassing its previous historic action taken in 2022.

Oracle is rallying more than 10% after the company reported strong sales and issued optimistic guidance on demand for AI computing.

Stocks showed little net reaction to the CPI report, which was in line with market expectations.  Stocks are seeing downward pressure as the Iran war drags on, with three vessels hit by missiles today in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, and with new volleys of missiles hitting Israel. 

Today’s US Feb CPI report was exactly in line with market expectations.  The Feb CPI rose +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y, while the Feb core CPI rose +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y.  Today’s headline CPI report of +2.4% y/y was just 0.1 point above the 5-year low posted in April 2025, while today’s core CPI of +2.5% y/y matched the 5-year low posted in the two previous months.  Even though the CPI figures are at or near 5-year lows, they are still above the Fed’s target of +2%.  Moreover, inflation pressures will worsen in the coming months due to the recent spike in oil and fuel prices caused by the war in Iran.

Stocks were undercut today after JPMorgan Chase said it is restricting lending to private credit funds amid markdowns on some of its loans in the sector, hampering the sector's attempt to weather the current crisis. The $1.8 trillion private credit sector is struggling to cope with an investor exodus driven by unattractive returns and fears of more financial difficulties among portfolio borrowers.

Q4 earnings season is nearly over, with more than 95% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 492 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 0% chance for a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -1.04%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.25%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.43%, adding to Tuesday’s +2.88% recovery rally.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) are down by -10.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.7 bp at 4.183%, adding to Tuesday’s rise of +6 bp. The T-note market largely ignored today’s CPI report as old news, and instead focused on today’s +2.5 bp rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to 2.375%.  T-note prices are being undercut by supply overhang ahead of the Treasury’s sale of 10-year T-notes today and 30-year bonds on Thursday.

European government bond yields are higher.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +7.8 bp at 2.915%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +10.2 bp at 4.655%.

Swaps are discounting a 4% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are trading mostly higher, led by a gain of more than +2% in Tesla (TSLA) and a gain of +0.8% in Nvidia (NVDA)

Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +12% after reporting strong results and guidance indicating strong demand for AI computing.

The Oracle news is providing support to the software and computing infrastructure sector, with Crowdstrike (CRWD) and Datadog (DDOG) posting gains of more than +3%.  IBM (IBM) is up more than +1%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is up +0.6%.

Chip stocks are also seeing support from the Oracle news, led by gains of more than +2% in Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).  Nvidia (NVDA) is up +0.8%

Oil stocks are seeing support with today’s rally in oil prices.  Marathon Oil (MPC) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are up more than +2%.

Nike (NKE) is up more than +1% after an upgrade from Barclays to overweight.

 Campbell’s Co (CPB) is down more than -3% after cutting its full-year earnings guidance.

UniFirst Corp (UNF) is up more than +6% after Cintas agreed to buy the company in a deal worth $5.5 billion.

Earnings Reports(3/11/2026)

Campbell's Company (CPB).