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Soybean Meal May '19 (ZMK19)

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Soybean Meal Futures Market News and Commentary

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures ended Tuesday with the front months steady to 1 3/4 cents lower. Meal futures were up $1/ton, with soy oil 20 points lower. Based on cmdtyView data, the national soybean index cash price is $8.16 3/4, down $1.27 1/2 from a year ago. The national basis is -86 cents, which is 8 cents weaker than the same time in 2018. Estimates for both Brazil and Argentina production were left UNCH by Dr. Michael Cordonnier at 113.5 MMT and 54 MMT respectively. End user association Abiove reduced their Brazilian soybean production estimate by 1 from their previous number to 116.9 MMTMay 19 Soybeans closed at $9.04, down 1 3/4 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.17 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.23 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.38 1/4, down 3/4 cent,May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $310.80, up $1.00,May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.24, down $0.20--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Soybean Meal
Contract Size
100 tons (2,000 pounds per ton)
Tick Size
10 cents per ton ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$100
Margin/Maintenance
$1,320/1,200
First Notice Date
04/30/19 (42 days)
Expiration Date
05/14/19 (56 days)

Seasonal Chart

Soybean Meal May '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 12, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
235,131 (+7,433)
226,666 (+2,392)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
91,541 (+555)
107,332 (+3,335)
Producers - Long / Short
143,108 (+6,241)
190,678 (-70)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
67,051 (-452)
11,016 (+818)
Managed Money - Long / Short
47,309 (+893)
91,598 (+3,981)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
44,232 (-338)
15,734 (-646)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
300.3 +3.50%
on 03/12/19
313.0 -0.70%
on 03/04/19
+1.3 (+0.42%)
since 02/19/19
3-Month
300.3 +3.50%
on 03/12/19
327.9 -5.22%
on 01/09/19
-4.8 (-1.52%)
since 12/19/18
52-Week
300.3 +3.50%
on 03/12/19
366.0 -15.08%
on 05/01/18
-35.0 (-10.12%)
since 03/19/18

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Most Recent Stories

More News
Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures ended Tuesday with the front months steady to 1 3/4 cents lower. Meal futures were up $1/ton, with soy oil 20 points lower. Based on cmdtyView data, the national soybean index cash price...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures were fractionally to 2 1/2 cents lower in the winter wheat contracts on Tuesday. MPLS was firm to 4 1/2 cents higher. There is still significant snow cover in the Dakotas and Minnesota. As...

Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures closed Tuesday with most contracts fractionally mixed. The national average corn index cash price according to cmdtyView is at $3.40, nearly a dime lower than this day last year. That would...

Livestock Report

Hogs consolidate, Feeders Strong

Corn - Just My Opinion

Weather Supports vs. Lack of Business Resists

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are showing marginal losses in most winter wheat contracts at midday, with MPLS steady to 4 3/4 cents higher. US FOB prices were below French as of last night, but weakness in corn at midday...

Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures are down 1 1/4 to 2 3/4 cents in most contracts on Tuesday. The national average corn index cash price according to cmdtyView is at $3.40, nearly a dime lower than this day last year. That...

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents lower in the front months at midday. Meal futures are up 20 cents/ton, with soy oil 25 points lower. Based on cmdtyView data, the national soybean index cash price is $8.16...

Grains Report 03/19/19

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 18 COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

Stay Calm

All is Well

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 314.2
1st Resistance Point 312.5
Last Price 310.8s
1st Support Level 308.9
2nd Support Level 307.0

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52-Week High 366.0
Fibonacci 61.8% 340.9
Fibonacci 50% 333.2
Fibonacci 38.2% 325.4
Last Price 310.8s
52-Week Low 300.3

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InsideFutures Commentary

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