Shootin' the Bull about cattle feeders

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

3/17/2026

Live Cattle:

Cattle feeders took it upon themselves to bid feeder cattle higher in the face of mounting input costs the past two days. Feed, fuel, and money remain elevated in comparison to just 3 weeks ago.  The optimism of cattle producers remains undaunted. The optimism of the consumer is questionable.  The wallowing of prices between February's high and March's low is expected to create a quagmire of risk for producers.  With only a higher price, and in most cases, sharply higher, to return input costs, staying sideways to lower will be anticipated to have previous projected losses come to fruition.  

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I think there is some hope that with the Greely plant closed, and may going to stay closed, the competitiveness of packers may improve. I think that is questionable as box prices have risen sharply, but not had time to be reflected at the retail counter or menu price.  I am not sure whether grocers and restaurants will eat the price increase, or pass along to the consumer.  Some interesting times to come as the "there just aren't any more cattle" continues to impact the decision making process.  

Feeder Cattle:

​On the mid day cattle comment, I recommended to use this sharp narrowing of the basis, and the willingness of the futures traders to push May $11.30 higher in the past two days, to mitigate the risks being assumed when paying top dollar for inventory today, and discounts in the future.  As the February high is expected to be "a" high of a forming triangle, this push higher in futures is of great advantage when managing risk.  I continue to anticipate contacting price ranges.  Until the February high is exceeded, the objective will be to market as close to the high as possible.  So far, at today's high, the May contract is just shy of a 50% retracement from the February high to the March low.       

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​Corn:

​Corn was no cheaper and beans a tad higher after Monday's limit down day.  Corn and beans are anticipated to exceed the most recent highs.  As a component of energy, and energy still moving higher, so should corn and beans.  With both coming upon planting and growing season, all the more to expect the unexpected in grain and oilseed trading.    

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Energy:​

​The decline from Sunday's opening highs to Monday's close has been erased in the diesel fuel.  Crude oil is not keeping up pace with the diesel fuel because there is all the crude in the world available, but not refined into diesel fuel yet to be consumed.  Therefore, watch the price of diesel fuel more than crude oil to see what the impact will be to producers, businesses, and consumers.  For the time being, I anticipate diesel fuel to exceed current contract high of $4.0211 May. Diesel fuel trades in 1/100's of a cent and is a 42,000 gallon contract.  Gasoline has kept pace, but still lagging well behind the diesel fuel.  With the demand being in diesel fuel, it leads to less refining to gasoline.   ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Bonds:

​Bonds were higher and I have no idea why, other than it appears an injection of liquidity was shot into the market at around 7:00am Tuesday.  Equities shot straight up and bonds got plus on the day as nothing seemed to have reversed what caused the lower trading in both.  This price activity helps to strengthen my ideas that Algorithmic trading is programed to be somewhat counter of the human psychology.  I think this is how we get so much price movement on such little news or human participation.  Nonetheless, bonds are anticipated to continue lower as inflation is soaring again, and this time, commodities are leading the way, not core.  If the President get's his way, and is able to sway the Fed to lower rates again, the combination of stimulation with commodity inflation resembles the economic time frame just before Paul Volcker took charge.  

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.