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Soybean Meal Mar '18 (ZMH18)

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Soybean Meal Futures Market News and Commentary

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 2 to 3 cents higher. Meal futures were up 80 cents/ton, with soy oil 3 points higher. Strong Board profitability for hogs is supporting meal. Analysts are expecting 18/19 soybean export bookings of 0.6-1.6 MMT for the week of 3/14 in Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report. New crop sales are estimated at 0-150,000 MT. Soybean meal sales are seen at 150,000-400,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-30,000 MT. Brazil’s Ag Minister says she expects to head to China later this Spring to strengthen soybean trade.May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.06, up 2 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.19 1/2, up 2 cents,Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.26, up 2 1/4 cents,Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.40 1/4, up 2 cents,May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $311.60, up $0.80,May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.27, up $0.03 --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Soybean Meal
Contract Size
100 tons (2,000 pounds per ton)
Tick Size
10 cents per ton ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$100
Margin/Maintenance
$1,320/1,200
First Notice Date
02/28/18
Expiration Date
03/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Soybean Meal Mar '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 12, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
235,131 (+7,433)
226,666 (+2,392)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
91,541 (+555)
107,332 (+3,335)
Producers - Long / Short
143,108 (+6,241)
190,678 (-70)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
67,051 (-452)
11,016 (+818)
Managed Money - Long / Short
47,309 (+893)
91,598 (+3,981)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
44,232 (-338)
15,734 (-646)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
368.3 unch
on 03/14/18
399.7 -7.86%
on 03/02/18
-1.6 (-0.43%)
since 02/14/18
3-Month
310.3 +18.69%
on 01/12/18
399.7 -7.86%
on 03/02/18
+42.7 (+13.11%)
since 12/14/17
52-Week
298.4 +23.42%
on 06/23/17
399.7 -7.86%
on 03/02/18
+42.7 (+13.11%)
since 03/14/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 32% Buy with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 378.7
1st Resistance Point 373.5
Last Price 368.3s
1st Support Level 365.7
2nd Support Level 363.1

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52-Week High 399.7
Last Price 368.3s
Fibonacci 61.8% 361.0
Fibonacci 50% 349.0
Fibonacci 38.2% 337.1
52-Week Low 298.4

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